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KFFL - Chalk Talk

Who to Start, Who to Bench - Week 15 - December 12, 2003

Chalk Talk will look at second and third tier players to help you make a decision in determining how strong or weak a starter they will be. Let's face it, anyone can pencil in LaDainian Tomlinson or Terrell Owens but what about those No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 fantasy players on your roster? You know; the ones in which you need to look at, analyze the match-ups and then look at it again! Yep, those are the ones! The ones in which we read and reread the latest news and notes and still wonder what to do!

Well, we're here to give you a hand with those every week in Chalk Talk's “Strong Play/Weak Play” column. This report is merely a taste of well-researched team reports from KFFL.com's Award Winning site.

We take a typical fantasy roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT and break the players down. If you enjoy these reports, you'll enjoy KFFL's weekly newsletter as well as our other services - covering all the team's key players, game situation and more! These reports are excerpts taken from our premium service which is over 250 pages!

QUARTERBACK - STRONG PLAY

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Delhomme is averaging 15 completions on 27 attempts (56 percent) for 215 yards, 1 TD and 1.25 INTs per game over his last four games. He also ran for a touchdown in that time. While those are not incredible numbers, he is about to face Arizona. While it seems unlikely Delhomme would be able to duplicate San Francisco 49ers QB Jeff Garcia's big game (four passing TDs, two rushing TDs) of a week ago, it is still a pretty strong match up. In fact, it makes Delhomme warrant consideration as a starter as a solid No. 1 QB if you have him on your roster, although there may still be other QBs out there more to your liking. For the record, Arizona has allowed an average of 318 passing yards (on 25 completions), 2.5 passing TDs, and 0.75 rushing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks over the previous four weeks.

RUNNING BACKS - STRONG PLAY

Thomas Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans
Jones is averaging 12 carries, 65 yards and 0.5 TDs per game over his last four games - one of which he started. In addition, he caught six balls for 46 yards in that time. With his solid play and 5.7 yards per carry, Jones is likely to serve as the team's starting running back for the remainder of the season. Over the past four weeks, he's been utilized 54 times (22 percent) in the team's offense, but that included games in which he was playing behind RB Michael Pittman. Now that he's starting, his utilization rate should go up. The Texans have allowed an average of 138 rushing yards (4.7 yards per carry), 49 receiving yards and 0.75 rushing TDs per game to the RB position over the past four weeks. It bears mentioning that this marks the second consecutive week that Jones has appeared on this list. When everything is taken into account, Jones makes a solid No. 2 RB.

Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Bettis rushed for season-high 106 yards on 27 carries last week as the Steelers had a flashback to more successful days. Overall, he is averaging 75 yards on 21 carries and 0.75 TDs per game in the last four weeks. He's also had a total of seven receptions for 48 yards in that time. His big game in Week 14 was largely a by-product of getting repeated touches, as he was utilized 30 times and accounted for 38 percent of the team's offensive plays. In total for the last month, Bettis has been utilized 95 times (32 percent), with 17 plays (51 percent) coming in the red zone and seven of those occurring inside the 5-yard line. Over their past four games, the Jets have allowed 142 rushing yards on 33 carries and 1.25 TDs per contest. The Jets have allowed the fifth most rushing yards to the position during that stretch. Bottom line, Bettis makes a decent No. 1 RB.

WIDE RECEIVERS - STRONG PLAY

Peter Warrick, Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers
In his last four games, Warrick has totaled 24 catches for 272 yards (11.3 avg.) and two TDs, as well as four carries for 28 yards. That averages out to 6 receptions, 68 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. In the last four weeks, Warrick has been targeted 40 times (15 percent), which is actually one more than teammate WR Chad Johnson. Five of those plays occurred inside the red zone. The 49ers have allowed an average of 157 receiving yards on 13 catches and 1.25 receiving TDs per game to the position recently. Warrick makes an average No. 1 WR this weekend.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Smith is averaging 5 receptions for 67 yards (13.4 yards per catch) and 0.25 TDs per game over the last four games. In addition, he has rushed three times for eight yards in that time. Arizona provides a very strong match up this weekend as the Cardinals have allowed an average of 244 receiving yards on 16 receptions (15 yards per catch) and 2.5 receiving TDs per game to the WR position over the last four weeks. Their 10 total touchdowns and 977 yards allowed to WRs both rank last in the NFL in that time. Smith makes a good No. 2 WR this Sunday.

Bobby Engram, Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Engram had 13 catches for 206 yards (15.8 yards per catch) and three TDs in his last four games - two of which he started. That equates to 3.3 receptions, 52 yards and 0.75 TDs per game. Engram has been targeted 19 times (6.7 percent) over that period, including twice in the red zone. The Rams have allowed an average of 149 yards on 11 catches and 1.25 TDs per game to the WR position over their previous four games. Engram makes a pretty good No. 3 WR in Sunday's divisional showdown with the Rams.

TIGHT END - STRONG PLAY

Bubba Franks, Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers
Franks has six catches for 45 yards and a TD in the Packers' last four games, which equates to an average of just 1.5 catches, 11 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. Franks has been targeted in eight plays (3 percent) in that span, with two of those plays coming in the red zone, including one inside the 5-yard line. Franks is the beneficiary of a very strong match up against the Chargers. The Chargers have given up 16 catches to TEs for 163 yards and a massive six TDs in their last four games. That amounts to 4 catches for 41 yards and 1.5 TDs per game. Franks is a weak No. 1 TE or strong injury replacement this weekend.

PLACE KICKER - STRONG PLAY

Aaron Elling, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Elling had a good game last week against the Seattle Seahawks, making 4-of-4 XPAs and 2-of-3 FGAs for 10 points. Overall, Elling has scored 25 points (6.25 per game) in the last four games. In that time, he's made all 10 XPAs and 5-of-8 FGAs. In the meantime, the Bears allowed Green Bay Packers PK Ryan Longwell to score 14 points on two XPAs and four FGAs last week. Chicago has given up eight actual points per game to PKs over the last four weeks on five XPAs and 10 FGAs. That's 1.25 XPAs and 2.5 FGAs allowed per game. With this strong match up, Elling ranks as a low No. 1 PK in Week 15.

DEFENSIVE TEAM - STRONG PLAY

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants
The Saints' defense should be in line for a good game against the Giants. New York has been mauled by opposing defenses lately, giving up 18 sacks, four INTs and five fumble recoveries in their last four games. That's an average of 4.5 sacks and 2.25 turnovers per game. Plus, the Giants will likely be forced to give QB Jesse Palmer his first NFL start this weekend. The Saints haven't generated much lately from the defensive side of the ball. In the last four weeks, they have accounted for just five sacks (1.25 per game) and seven turnovers (four INTs and three fumble recoveries), which is 1.75 turnovers per game. But facing an offense averaging 7.5 points per game helps the Saints' defense rate as a high No. 1 this weekend.

QUARTERBACK - WEAK PLAY

Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brady is the architect of one of the hottest teams in the league, as the Patriots are riding a league-high nine game winning streak and have positioned themselves atop the AFC. Over the last four weeks, Brady is averaging 22 completions on 37 attempts (59 percent) for 245 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT per game. He has also run 11 times for 15 yards in that time. Jacksonville has allowed an average of just 157 passing yards on 18 completions (9.0 yards per completion) and 0.5 TDs per game over the last four weeks. As a result, he only makes a lower end No. 1 QB or injury fill-in at the QB position this Sunday.

RUNNING BACKS - WEAK PLAY

Olandis Gary, Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
Gary has struggled in his play since joining the Lions this season. In Week 14, Gary was only able to muster three receptions for 20 yards, along with his five rushes for 20 yards. Over the last four games, Gary is averaging 7.8 carries for 30 yards rushing. In addition, he has caught five passes for 26 yards. Gary has been utilized 39 times (15 percent) since Week 11, with all three (8.3 percent) of his red zone plays coming inside the 5-yard line. The Chiefs' defense has been the third worst in the league based on offensive yards allowed. Since Week 11 they have given up an average of 195 offensive yards per game to opposing RBs, 159 on the ground and 36 through the air, to go with nine touchdowns. Needless to say, if there was a defense that would help the Lions' RBs to turn things around, the Chiefs would be it. But with RB Shawn Bryson seeing most of the work, Gary is viewed as a bench player this weekend.

John Simon, Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
With the injury situation in Washington, it looks as though Simon could see his first extended action of the season. With RBs Trung Canidate (foot) and Ladell Betts (forearm) likely out and RB Chad Morton (flu) still questionable, Simon and rookie RB Sultan McCullough would probably share time with FB Rock Cartwright. So while Simon may see more action this weekend than he has seen all season, he is still highly unlikely to have a big game. Simon has been utilized just twice in the last four weeks. The Redskins offensive backfield is such a mess right now that all of the players in that situation should be avoided this weekend as it is impossible to project who will play and more importantly, how much they will play.

WIDE RECEIVERS - WEAK PLAY

Antonio Bryant, Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Bryant was looked for just once last week and continues to be unimpressive in his second season (two receptions, 24 yards per game since Week 11 with one TD). Bryant has been targeted the most lately of all the WRs with 25 plays (9.4 percent) of the overall offensive and three plays (12 percent) in the red zone. In three games against Washington, Bryant has averaged a healthy 88 receiving yards, with two total TDs. Washington has done a good job keeping WRs out of the end zone (one TD in the last four games). After giving up 261 receiving yards to the Carolina Panthers WRs in Week 11, the Redskins have stiffened up and have allowed an average of 139 yards during the four-game period. However, opposing WRs have a healthy 16 yards per reception average. Bryant is an injury fill-in option at WR this weekend.

Dante Hall, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions
Hall continues to see an increased role in the Chiefs' game plan, not just as a kick returner, but from scrimmage as well. Over the last month Hall has averaged four receptions for 37 yards and no TDs. It should be noted that Hall grabbed 11 receptions for 124 yards last week against the Broncos. Hall has been targeted 28 times (10 percent), with one play (2.5 percent) in the red zone. Detroit has only allowed 128 yards and 0.5 TDs on 8.8 receptions (14.7 yards per catch) per game to the WR position over their last four games. If the Chiefs other receivers continue to struggle, Hall's role in the offense could continue to increase, but for now Hall should be benched this weekend.

Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers
Frustration for fantasy owners of Driver reached new levels last week, when he managed just one catch for four yards. Driver is still the team's primary receiver and has been targeted 25 times (9.4 percent), which is more than any of the team's other receivers, in the last four games. However, all of the big play opportunities are going the way of young WRs Robert Ferguson and Javon Walker, both of whom are improving. In his last four games, Driver is averaging 2.8 catches, 24 yards and 0 TDs per game. This weekend, he'll face a San Diego defense that has allowed 134 yards and one TD on 12 catches per game in the last four weeks. Don't be surprised if Driver is used on a reverse, because the young Chargers secondary have had opposing WRs carry the ball a league-high seven times for 51 yards during this period. Consider Driver a weak play and leave him on your fantasy bench this Sunday.

TIGHT END - WEAK PLAY

Frank Wycheck, Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills
Wycheck once again ranks as a weak play, this time against the Buffalo Bills. One of his bigger problems is that he has to split chances with the teams other two tight ends. Wycheck has eight catches for 59 yards and two TDs in the last four weeks. He's been utilized 17 times (7 percent), including five plays (10 percent) in the red zone with two inside the 5-yard line. In their last four games, Buffalo has only given up seven catches for 62 yards and no TDs to the TE position. They rank second in yardage allowed to TEs in that span, and are averaging just 16 yards per game to the TE position. Wycheck's TDs help make him a low No. 1 TE this weekend.

PLACE KICKER - WEAK PLAY

Josh Brown, Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams
Brown had a rough go of it in Week 14, finishing with only one point on an extra point attempt, and missing both FG attempts, one from 49-yards out and another from 52-yards away. Over his last four games, Brown has converted only four field goals on seven attempts, although he has been perfect on his extra point attempts, going 15-for-15. In that span, he has not had any FGAs blocked. The Rams have been solid against the PK position in their last four games, giving up an average of 2.5 XP conversions and only 0.75 FGs per game. Brown makes for a poor start against the Rams and should remain on your bench this Sunday.

DEFENSIVE TEAM - WEAK PLAY

New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have suddenly figured out how to stop giving away the football. They've only given up 3 sacks, 3 INTs and 2 lost fumbles in their last four games. Those are much-improved averages of 0.75 sacks and 1.25 turnovers per game. This doesn't bode well for the tough Patriots' defense. New England has forced 11 sacks, 7 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries in their last four games. They've also scored a special teams TD and a TD on an INT return in that span. Per game, the Patriots have averaged 2.75 sacks and 2.5 turnovers per game. But with the weak play match-up, New England's defense slides a bit this week. They're still a team you start, but temper your expectations a bit this weekend.

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