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23Dec/11

Fantasy Football Insider – Week 16

By KFFL Staff on December 23, 2011

Happy holidays, KFFLians!  Is your fantasy football team ready for Week 16? The following fantasy football tidbits are key items we are hearing from behind the scenes entering this weekend.

16.28

Miami Dolphins Expect the New England Patriots to try to shut down the over-the-middle portion of the Miami Dolphins' passing game, especially Davone Bess, who has made them pay when left uncovered. This could mean a big day for Brandon Marshall, making him a top fantasy play, but the Pats are probably OK with allowing Marshall's inconsistency to beat them than Miami to keep moving the chains consistently. - Tim Heaney

16.26

New England Patriots The New England Patriots had trouble setting the edges against the Denver Broncos' superb running game in Week 15. With Andre Carter (quadriceps) out for the year, Mark Anderson becomes the primary pass rusher, but his run defense isn't as stout. Reggie Bush, a highly potent edge rusher, should take advantage on the ground to add to his receiving skills for the Miami Dolphins.- Tim Heaney

16.21

New England Patriots New England Patriots locker-room sources say Wes Welker has been a good soldier in not talking about his expiring contract. He's not letting it distract from his efforts, even with the possibility of facing one or two years with a franchise tag. - Tim Heaney

16.20

New England Patriots The Miami Dolphins won't contain Rob Gronkowski as effectively as the Denver Broncos did in Week 15. They had the right combo of pass rush forcing Gronk to block and defensive attention paid to him on pass routes. The New England Patriots won't need Gronkowski to shadow block Cameron Wake. Aaron Hernandez, meanwhile, doesn't necessarily need a bad Gronk day to have his own good day; he's the third option behind Gronk and Wes Welker.  -  Tim Heaney

16.11

Washington Redskins Jabar Gaffney needs 158 receiving yards to record his first 1,000-yard season. Expect the Washington Redskins to involve the 31-year-old often to help him reach that goal; a matchup versus a weak Minnesota Vikings secondary will go a long way toward helping him realize that dream. - Tim Heaney

16.09

Washington Redskins It looks like Roy Helu Jr. (toe) will play this weekend for the Washington Redskins, but he'll probably have a touch percentage split of something like 60-40 with Evan Royster. If Helu can't go, Royster would have a 60-40 advantage, approximately, over Ryan Torain, who'd be forced onto the active roster. - Tim Heaney

16.04

Dallas Cowboys A vital difference between the last Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles matchup: Dallas linebacker Sean Lee had to leave that game early, and Philly took advantage of LB Keith Brooking. Lee is much better in pass coverage, and maybe Brent Celek won't have as many openings over the middle as many think. - Tim Heaney

16.03

Philadelphia Eagles The Philadelphia Eagles run well versus 3-4 defenses. LeSean McCoy has torn up the Dallas Cowboys already this year; in fact the two biggest games of his career have come in his last two meetings against them. - Tim Heaney

16.02

Philadelphia Eagles Some reports say Nnamdi Asomugha will guard Jason Witten this weekend, like they did effectively in Week 8. However, Laurent Robinson wasn't as big a factor for the Dallas Cowboys in that meeting, and the Philadelphia Eagles won't have cornerback Asante Samuel (hamstring) this weekend, so they'd be thin against Dallas' wideouts if that were to happen. Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will probably play the outsides with Joselio Hanson in the slot, with Asomugha likely matching up with Dez Bryant. Miles Austin and Laurent Robinson look primed to continue their momentum. - Tim Heaney

16.01

Jacksonville Jaguars As if Blaine Gabbert wasn't already a shaky slinger: He'll have right tackle Cameron Bradfield making the first start of his career. That's a weak spot the Tennessee Titans can exploit; their pass rush hasn't been the same since Jim Washburn left, but this opens a sack door for their fantasy defense, which is a solid waiver wire play. - Tim Heaney

15.39

Pittsburgh SteelersVeteran wideout Hines Ward is just nine catches away from 1,00 receptions, which would make him the eighth player in league history to accomplish the feat. Emmanuel Sanders (foot) is out, and Charlie Batch may feel most comfortable working with Ward. - Cory J. Bonini

15.27

New York GiantsThe G-men will be without Mario Manningham (knee) and Jake Ballard (knee); they also may not have third-down back Danny Ware (foot). Look for a lot of checkdowns to Ahmad Bradshaw, and our sources feel Hakeem Nicks will have Darrelle Revis locked on him all day. Nevertheless, Eli Manning will not be afraid to challenge Revis. Fantasy owners should play Nicks with tempered expectations. - Cory J. Bonini

15.20

Green Bay PackersEvery fantasy football gamer has only one concern about their Green Bay Packers: Will mine sit? If the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Seattle Seahawks on Christmas Eve, the Pack could think about it in the second half of their Sunday night matchup with the Chicago Bears. But, let's not over-think this one. Mike McCarthy has given the impression that he wants his team to get rid of the taste from last week's ugly loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and he wants his boys to remain sharp. This isn't the time to get gunshy with your Green Bay good guys. - Nicholas Minnix

15.19

Jacksonville Jaguars Don't expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to acquire a better backup plan to Blaine Gabbert next season. They still have faith in Luke McCown; they think he has made progress already. Plus, he wouldn't lose the backup job to a 2012 draft pick, which wouldn't come before the fourth round considering the other holes Jacksonville has. If anything, they'd try to develop another project QB. - Tim Heaney

15.18

San Diego Chargers The San Diego Chargers' Ryan Mathews could pose a problem for the Detroit Lions, who've been vulnerable to perimeter rushes and misdirections - two of Mathews' specialties. Maybe San Diego decides to run a bit more to keep Detroit's pass game off the field. - Tim Heaney

15.17

Detroit Lions Kevin Smith (ankle) is probable for Saturday and was running better this week in practice. The Detroit Lions could involve Smith more if they need to play things close to the vest against the San Diego Chargers. - Tim Heaney

15.17

Detroit LionsCalvin Johnson was highly successful last week because the Detroit Lions moved him around to get him favorable matchups against linebackers and safeties. Also, teams are starting to respect Detroit's short passing game - Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew - more, so Megatron could be open more often. Still, you shouldn't expect the San Diego Chargers to let him have another monstrous Week 15-like effort, because the attention Eric Weddle will probably pay toward him. - Tim Heaney

15.16

Green Bay PackersJames Starks (knee) will suit up for the first time in three weeks in the NFL's only Christmas Day matchup, scheduled for prime time. The Green Bay Packers aren't expected to lean on him quite as much as they would if this were a midseason game and he was 100 percent; he should see a slight majority of the touches, and Ryan Grant will probably get the rest. In your fantasy football Super Bowl, neither back is an enticing play against the Chicago Bears' quality run defense. - Nicholas Minnix

15.15

Detroit Lions The Detroit Lions' hobbled secondary will probably play more man-press coverage against the San Diego Chargers' receiving options, who have notable size advantages nearly across the board. Chris Houston and company will look to disrupt the Chargers' routes via bump and run. - Tim Heaney

15.14

Baltimore Ravens Anquan Boldin (knee) being out means Torrey Smith will probably line up against rising Cleveland Browns CB Joe Haden, who could trail him better on deep balls than the other Cleveland options. The Baltimore Ravens' passing game is already likely to take a back seat to Ray Rice, who's looking to reprise his 204-yard performance from a few weeks ago against the runner-friendly Browns D.  -Tim Heaney

15.14

Cleveland Browns Physique isn't a long-term issue for Colt McCoy (concussion). It's that he's short and failing to make competent throws to the outside. The Cleveland Browns will probably be looking for a different arm for the future if that is their main critique. - Tim Heaney

15.13

Chicago Bears Week 16 should be a big day, at least workload-wise, for Kahlil Bell. The Chicago Bears don't know what type of passing game they'll have with Josh McCown replacing Caleb Hanie and Johnny Knox (back) on Injured Reserve. Maybe Earl Bennett can help on the midrange routes that he couldn't connect with Hanie on, but it's safer on Bell being the best receiving option. - Tim Heaney

14.53

New Orleans SaintsIn their first meeting of 2011 with the Atlanta Falcons, the New Orleans Saints' game plan called for passing, passing and more passing, with a small helping of ... passing. They know that's how they're able to exploit Atlanta's D, which is strong against the run. N'Awlins called only 15 runs or so. There's no reason to expect much deviation. For fantasy football players who own a Saints receiver and have made it this far: Play your stud; if you have a fringe target, he's a candidate for your lineup, too. - Nicholas Minnix

13.20

St. Louis RamsRookie receiver Austin Pettis has been suspended four games for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. He reportedly took Adderall, which is a prescription med for attention deficit disorder. His long-term standing with the team shouldn't be in jeopardy, and he seemed contrite for making the mistake. Don't expect the Rams to sign anyone to replace him at this stage of a losing season; Dominique Curry should serve as the seldom-used fourth Rams receiver. - Cory J. Bonini

13.16

St. Louis RamsThe Rams will be without Sam Bradford (ankle) again this week, but he could have learned a thing or two from Kellen Clemens' pocket awareness and timing in Week 15. Clemens is playing for a future backup role in St. Louis, with A.J. Feeley being a 34-year-old soon-to-be free agent. The Oregon product took three sacks and came up short on a would-be touchdown pass to Brandon Lloyd last week, but Clemens' 95.7 rating was tops among Rams passers in 2011. Go figure.... - Cory J. Bonini

13.08

Atlanta FalconsThe Falcons held New Orleans Saints running back Darren Sproles to one total yard of offense in Week 10 by chipping him a lot as he came out of the backfield. Expect that strategy to be employed once again by Atlanta, but they also have to contend with Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston. The tight end went for 82 yards and a score on seven receptions in Week 10, while Colston posted an 8-113-0 line that game. Stopping one guy is possible. All three ... think again. - Cory J. Bonini

  • KK

    PPR league finals. I rode Lynch and Felix Jones during the playoffs so far. Jones is questionable. Do I swap him out for Tolbert, Sammy Morris his backup, or LT?   Which of the two D’s this week. Philly or Bears? I’m leaning towards the Eagles as the Bears play in GB. Any early advice would be greatly appreciate. Thanks for all the insightful news and rankings this year. Happy Holidays!
    -K in Minnesota

  • http://www.kffl.com/fantasy-sports-blog/author/nicholas-minnix Nicholas Minnix

    I’d wait to see if Felix is up, of course. I wouldn’t feel comfortable using either Dallas back if Felix is active, but Morris is a big-time wild card that could pay off. I like Tolbert of your three options there the most. Detroit is susceptible to the dump-off to the back still, and that’s Tolbert’s game, even though he’s second fiddle to Ryan Mathews nowadays.I like the Iggles’ D a little more just because I think they’ll beat Dallas, perhaps as handily as they did the first time. Bears will have a hard time putting up fantasy points, but – GB’s OL depth is becoming a problem, and they should have opportunities to get pressure on A-Rod. I think the Eagles are a more intriguing play based on my expectation for the game outcome.

  • Edpled

    I am in a PPR “Homers” league (owners draft entire teams, not individuals).  I need three rb/wr in my lineup Saturday from the Cowboys.  I am inclined to start Miles Austin and Laurent Robinson and if he is healthy, Felix Jones.  But what if Felix can’t go, who is the other (Dez Bryant or Sammy Morris).  And, am I making a mistake with Austin or Robinson over Bryant in the first place.  What is your take?

  • olbuzz

    Can’t help but chime in to the situation. I’m on the wrong side of KK’s problem. I’m nursing an 81 pt lead for the overall title in a 14 teamer (established 1991) We’re not playing for pride either. After losing Forte and Jennings in the last month its been duck tape an a prayer. I jumped on khali Bell and Morris a week ahead of the rush.
    Unless they’re playing some strange fake out in Dallas Felix Jones has to be downright doubful. No practice and wk 17 appears to be a must. I gotta run Morris over shakey Jerome Simpson an hope for a bingo. Phili beating Dallas at home is a possibillity I guess But if they have a hair on their Stars they score with em. Gotta stick with Seattle to blow up SF. What a late waiver gift thats been. Been doin this for a while… You guys are my last stop every week.. keep it up. Good luck KK

    How bout some bare bones waivers next season for some of us big leaguers

  • olbuzz

    Can’t help but chime in to the situation. I’m on the wrong side of KK’s problem. I’m nursing an 81 pt lead for the overall title in a 14 teamer (established 1991) We’re not playing for pride either. After losing Forte and Jennings in the last month its been duck tape an a prayer. I jumped on khali Bell and Morris a week ahead of the rush.
    Unless they’re playing some strange fake out in Dallas Felix Jones has to be downright doubful. No practice and wk 17 appears to be a must. I gotta run Morris over shakey Jerome Simpson an hope for a bingo. Phili beating Dallas at home is a possibillity I guess But if they have a hair on their Stars they score with em. Gotta stick with Seattle to blow up SF. What a late waiver gift thats been. Been doin this for a while… You guys are my last stop every week.. keep it up. Good luck KK

    How bout some bare bones waivers next season for some of us big leaguers

  • olbuzz

    Can’t help but chime in to the situation. I’m on the wrong side of KK’s problem. I’m nursing an 81 pt lead for the overall title in a 14 teamer (established 1991) We’re not playing for pride either. After losing Forte and Jennings in the last month its been duck tape an a prayer. I jumped on khali Bell and Morris a week ahead of the rush.
    Unless they’re playing some strange fake out in Dallas Felix Jones has to be downright doubful. No practice and wk 17 appears to be a must. I gotta run Morris over shakey Jerome Simpson an hope for a bingo. Phili beating Dallas at home is a possibillity I guess But if they have a hair on their Stars they score with em. Gotta stick with Seattle to blow up SF. What a late waiver gift thats been. Been doin this for a while… You guys are my last stop every week.. keep it up. Good luck KK

    How bout some bare bones waivers next season for some of us big leaguers

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  • Edpled

    Didn’t matter.  Giants win, Cowboys mail it in.