I’ll admit, I was slightly cut off from fantasy football leading up to Week 9 games. First, my New York Yankees won the World Series that Wednesday (let the hate mail start). The next day, my colleague Nicholas Minnix and I flew to Arizona for a rawhide weekend at the Baseball HQ First Pitch Forums.

(If you didn’t know, Nick is a Phillies fan. We somehow remained civil.)

Anyway, much thanks to the folks at HQ and all of the speakers. We were all there for something beyond the industry elbow-rubbing: Arizona Fall League baseball, a proven springboard for young talent.

It’s hard to make a thorough evaluation based on several days of observations (sometimes a few at-bats), but we can still get a feel for how soon a player can make an impact.

Of course, in the case of Stephen Strasburg, a neck strain can rob 100-plus symposium attendees of seeing The Next Big Thing.

I don’t want to jump the gun on our upcoming AFL rundown, due out soon, but I can’t let these observations sit in my head any longer.

Best fantasy bets for 2010

Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros – Imposing lefty stick showed an OK presence as receiver, and the ‘Stros really don’t have many other options. He’ll be priced as a speculative No. 2 catcher on NL draft day.

This guy wasn't the only prospect there....

Drew Storen, RP, Washington Nationals – His funky delivery didn’t help when he gave up a two-run dinger to blow the save in the Rising Stars game, but he recovered nicely after that. His K potential alone makes him a must-watch candidate for the Nats’ closer job.

High Alert

Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds - The best power prospect I saw. The lefty bat has a hint of left-field pop, as well. Cincy needs to make room for him at third or in left with Joey Votto entrenched, but don’t expect them to wait too long.

Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds – Safe to say I was a Reds fan in Phoenix. Poised at the plate, he has scorched the desert diamonds. As with Alonso, there may be a left-field slot calling for Heisey.

Dustin Ackley, OF, Seattle Mariners – Not much power coming from his wood, but his opposite-field prowess stood above and beyond the rest of the talent I observed. This year’s No. 2 overall pick looks like a prototypical two-hole hitter but probably won’t touch the bigs until 2011, at earliest.

Chase D’Arnaud, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates - Smooth in the field, aggressive on the basepaths, and patient and chippy at the dish. A 2010 impact isn’t out of the question, NL players….

Keeper leaguers: Remember this name

Tanner Scheppers, RP, Texas Rangers – High-level heat that could spell trouble for Frank Francisco owners in a few years. Think long-term more so than 2010 and keep him on your inseason watch list.

Carlos Triunfel, SS/3B, Seattle Mariners – I’m impressed by reports of his work ethic, and he hit a bomb in the AFL Rising Stars game that hasn’t landed yet. Oh, and he turns 20 in February. Though it might not happen this season, he’ll soon ease the pain those Yuniesky and Adrian guys caused M’s fans.

Sleepers

Wilin Rosario, C, Colorado Rockies - Hands down the best defensive catcher I laid eyes on – Posey and Castro included. Nick and I are still talking about this 20-year-old, who boasts a compact batting stance and smooth footwork behind the plate (think Carlos Ruiz). He has a long way to go, but don’t lose track of him.

Kenley Jansen, P, Los Angeles Dodgers - This converted catcher showed standout velocity and some electric movement, but control has been an issue. Think center-of-the-Earth NL-only sleeper, probably not even for this season.

Undecided

Grant Desme, OF, Oakland Athletics – His 31-40 season at Class A was nice, but he looked overaggressive in the two contests I observed.

Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants - He looked fatigued. He has received a ton of work this season and displayed flatness at the plate and behind the dish. I’d say it’s too soon for San Fran to give him anything more than one-third of the work next year, but expect him to be overvalued in your draft.

Jordan Danks, OF, Chicago White Sox – Has nice speed-power potential, but needs to work on his discipline. He hacked a bit too much at the plate.

Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles – Didn’t see enough of him to make a judgment, but intrigued to see if he makes enough progress to start at third in B-more this year.

Not interested

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals - I used to be high on him, but it doesn’t look like he has done much to improve his plate approach or his diet. Alex Gordon doesn’t have much to worry about.

Remember, our full AFL report is coming soon. Hit us up:

• Fantasy Football Ask The Experts every Thursday on the home page
• Forums
• Twitter
• Facebook
• My Twitter

(Don’t worry. We’ll take you back to fantasy football soon.)

Yoo-Hoo has never tasted better.

I’m not much of a chocolate milk chugger, but when the words “fantasy baseball championship” are tied to it, the dark dairy drink gives the palate – maybe your hair? – a much sweeter taste.

(Thanks to MLB.com Fantasy 411’s Cory Schwartz for the link).

After a weekend in which my eyeballs almost fell out staring at various Stattracker applications, I pulled off close – and I mean close – victories in the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Experts’ Challenge and the KFFL K-BAD Fantasy Analysis Draft league.

Now, of course, there’s a significant amount of luck involved in winning a fantasy baseball league. Anyone who denies that has never played.

But at the risk of sounding like an NFL wide receiver, I’d like to think I played last weekend very well.

Using the loopholes of various platforms that count all pitching stats on the same day you hit your innings limits, I loaded up on Saturday starters in the K-BAD, the daily league, with 4 1/3 innings left to burn.

Jair Jurrjens (my pitching MVP for the season), Johnny Cueto, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Anibal Sanchez later, I was sitting pretty, pulling ahead of several teams that had no innings left.

Prince Fielder’s two-dinger Sunday sealed the deal.

In the weekly FSTA, I had been loading up on starts for some time; my biggest mobility chances were in the runs and wins categories.

Enough of my self-promotion. I’ve celebrated enough. Now, my job is to help YOU with some secrets as to HOW I won the more common K-BAD setup.

I filled out my infield first.

The outfield class was deep this year as dictated by ADP, so I waited to fill my fourth and fifth outfielder spots. I missed on Garrett Atkins as a value third baseman in several leagues but was lucky enough to recover.

I was less loyal to players. Remember: Trade for stats, not players.

I tended to hang onto players in my first season in the expert industry, and I was burned numerous times. This year, I ditched projects if they weren’t helping. I jumped on needs that had to be met.

I have been one of Adam Dunn’s biggest fans in the fantasy world, but before I got the chance to see if he could hit 40 homers AGAIN, I concluded that I needed to gain points in steals and batting average while maintaining my upper-level runs production.

Thus, buh bye Dunn, hello Jacoby Ellsbury.

I also eventually swapped closer Jose Valverde for runs-steals-batting average dynamo Shin-Soo Choo, which brings me to another valuable lesson.

Revisit player values as the season goes along, and remain open-minded.

I warmed to Choo’s multicategory prowess. He did all the little things, while throwing in 20 dingers. We were down on him coming into the season, but, as that guy Darwin said, survival requires adaptation.

We also called Chris Davis a bust heading into the year, and we were right. He wasn’t long for the bigs. However, after he started producing again in the minors, he was a valuable pickup for a brief period after his callup. I didn’t have to worry about draft value with him, and he helped me sustain productivity at a CI spot in numerous leagues.

This lesson: Always use forward thinking for the scrap heap.

In no-trade leagues, like the 14-team, 28-man roster, weekly-lineup FSTA, this is doubly – no, triply – important.

I didn’t draft catchers before the late rounds in my expert leagues.

In our local fantasy baseball setup, which I also won, I took Pablo Sandoval in the middle rounds because the value was right, but in these two expert setups, which both require two starting catchers, I had no such urgency.

Just want to thank everyone whom I competed against in expert leagues this year for the great competition. You can never stop learning things when playing against your peers.

If you think we’re resting on our laurels, think again. We’ll be checking in during the offseason with thoughts on our projections, and if you feel like winning in 2010, you’d best to stay tuned to our Offseason Guide coverage, which includes our Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove and reports on offseason developmental leagues.

If you want to pick the brains of KFFL’s baseball minds along with a slew of other experts, come meet up with Nicholas Minnix and me at Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forums, the annual VIP party for the fantasy baseball world! You can see some of the best prospects in the Arizona Fall League, including Stephen Strasburg, and get a head start on your 2010 competition!

First, though, I want to hear how you did in fantasy baseball this year – where you went right, where you went wrong, what your plans will be to change your strategy next year.

OK, fine, go back to enjoying pigskin….

Those who refuse to let go of this 2009 fantasy baseball season won’t have to just yet. The Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers will clash in a one-game playoff Tuesday afternoon to determine the AL Central champ.

Guess what? Those stats will help determine many fantasy championships.

This has come much to the chagrin of this author, who as of Sunday’s completed slate was holding a slim lead in our host expert league, the K-BAD.

I'm counting on you, C-Grand....

Now, I’ll be counting on the Tigers’ Curtis Granderson – and possibly others (more on this in a bit) – while trying to hold my slim advantage for second place in runs scored, which is vital in allowing me to chug this league’s Yoo-Hoo.

In the Fantasy Sports Trade Association experts challenge, in which I entered Sunday losing on a tiebreaker for the championship, I’ll have Minny’s Jason Kubel and Orlando Cabrera going Tuesday in a league where I’m out of FAAB dollars.

Before you do anything else: Pick up as many members of each tiebreaker team as possible – in descending order of playing likelihood, obviously – including the starting arms: Rick Porcello for the Tigs, and Scott Baker for the Twinkies. Make sure to check that there aren’t any studs available that may have been dropped in the catch-up fray when your opponents were streaming stats.

It wouldn’t hurt to add bench and role players, as their one at-bat or one pinch-running appearance could help. Potential under-the-radar helpers include Detroit’s Ryan Raburn, Clete Thomas (may see time since they’re facing a righty) and Adam Everett. The Twins’ Alexi Casilla and Carlos Gomez may see some baserunning time. Relievers like Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Brandon Lyon could come in handy here, too.

Now, just because you’re picking up the 163-gamers doesn’t mean you should necessarily play them. Examine your needs and tailor your strategy appropriately. If you’re scared of losing points in batting average, for example, then you may want to hold off. I face this dilemma in the K-BAD.

If you need to catch up in counting categories, though, and aren’t concerned about your ratio movement, fire away. I’m letting it all hang out in the FSWA Industry Insiders League, where I’m fighting for third- and possibly second-place respectability.

Are you trying to block someone else from gaining stats on you? That’s fine. Just tuck your recent pickups on the bench and wait it out.

If you have any last-minute questions, you can find me on Twitter and KFFL.com’s Facebook page. As I decide whether to play Gomez, Casilla and Thomas, I’ll be rooting for a 1-0 contest with more real-life excitement than fantasy drama.

I need to take a break from football. Here are some of my gut-check reactions to some trends and MLB Hot off the Wire posts:

• The Milwaukee Brewers will decide Friday whether to shut down Yovani Gallardo for the season. Please do, it would make my pitching decisions so much easier down the stretch. That increase in innings could be a huge factor heading into next year. Like with Vazquez, I got lucky with Gallardo for the first four months of the year, but I’m at the point where I don’t think I can pitch him. Stay tuned so you’ll know whether to cut him.
• Chipper Jones is hitting .152 in September and has discovered some flaws in his swing. I figured it would be the age and spotty playing time that made his drafters regret selecting Jones this season.
  

  I've had a love-hate relationship with Gallardo

• Jason Marquis tweaks mechanics after spotting a flaw in his delivery. He relies heavily on downward action, though it hasn’t helped him lately.
• The Kansas City Royals‘ Robinson Tejeda (blister) has been bothered by a blister on his right middle finger that has affected the grip on his changeup. He wasn’t putting enough on the pitch during his start Tuesday. I was already afraid to pick him up because you figure he had to run out of luck soon. This reaffirmed my patience.
• To very hittable Angels closer Brian Fuentes: As much as I want to believe that umpires are afraid of calls at Fenway Park, I think it’s more that strike zones vary way too much depending on pitchers and hitters. It’s a problem that will continue until they create a floating hologram strike zone. Even by then, we’ll have instant replay on one pitch per at-bat, so the madness will never end.
• Oh, and Brian, you had Nick Green at 0-and-2 with two outs. It shouldn’t have come down to a full-count close call anyway.
• Javier Vazquez wants to return to the Atlanta Braves next year. Well, that’s nice, but for the great values that I got him at this year, I’m not going to take a chance on him in the same draft spots next year.
• I wouldn’t be surprised if Jonathan Papelbon was in fact traded after the season. I don’t think it’s the RIGHT decision, but Red Sox GM Theo Epstein isn’t exactly loyal to players if he feels the club can start another cycle. I wouldn’t call Daniel Bard closer-ready just yet, though.
• The Orioles’ 2010 closer? Beats me. I’d bet on Chris Ray first since he learned that he can’t throw heat all the time. I’d probably draft around this situation.
• If the Cincinnati Reds are smart enough to keep him in the starting lineup, Drew Stubbs will be a cheap fifth outfielder for me wherever possible next year. He’ll be a value edition of Curtis Granderson.

In other more unfortunate news, I’ve lost my long-standing lead in the K-BAD Expert League to The Hardball Times’ Derek Carty and Eriq Gardner.

My offense has flubbed, and those who were behind the innings pace, including the current leaders, are starting to make noise. For some reason in this league, I started Edwin Jackson against the Royals today. I was greedy in thinking a potential easy win would help me more than sustaining my WHIP and ERA. Oops. Time to retool.

I’m within spitting distance of the FSTA Experts lead, though, one point behind the leader Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ and tied with Fanball.com’s Charlie Wiegert. It’s a three-horse race on paper but Scott Swanay, the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa, and Dave Mitri of Fantasy Trophies.com. I have dominated ERA and WHIP for the majority of the season and have been near the top in homers, strikeouts, wins, RBIs and runs. I’ve failed to gain much ground in steals, saves and batting average, though.

I sit in a distant fifth place in the FSWA IIL. Grady Sizemore’s shutdown, my lack of starts remaining and my Ryan Braun acquisition have been my main downfalls.

Well, back to the baseball cave.

Oh, how many forget … but I haven’t forgotten about you! Just dropping in to review some recent callups:

Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers – He probably won’t trump Casey McGehee for majority time, making him strictly NL fodder.

Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals - After a hand injury cut his progress short, Desmond, soon to be 24, has rebounded this year by hitting .330 in Double-A and Triple-A this year. He can run a bit and makes a ton of contact. He shortened his swing and has become more composed with two strikes. This is a great opportunity for Desmond to stake 2010 shortstop claim; the Nats may either move Cristian Guzman to second or ship him away.

The Next Big Thing

Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay Rays – That didn’t take long. Updating one of our previous entries, Davis will replace Andy Sonnanstine in the rotation. Deep mixers should grab him. Now.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants – He posted a solid MLB debut yesterday for the Giants in place of Tim Lincecum (back), and he reminds me an awful lot of Brian Fuentes with his sidearm lefty offering. I’m not sure how to feel about the latter yet. Either way, the 20-year-old will pitch out of the ‘pen for the rest of the year as long as San Fran’s rotation stays healthy. If you’re feeling desperately seeking something in NLs, just remember Bum won’t give you much for ‘09.

Other thoughts:

• If the Cards decide to rest Ryan Franklin more in the next few days, Trever Miller may get a save chance or two. The lefty specialist (more than a LOOGY) would be a good add for even after Franklin comes back for the Cardinals.
• Marlon Byrd: 12-for-21, a homer and six RBIs in his last six games (five started). Streaky hitter, Josh Hamilton injured … you should at least take a shot for him as a No. 5 outfielder and play him while he’s hot.

Think about the future

If you’re speculating for saves in keeper/dynasty leagues for 2010, enjoy these names to get you started:

• Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians – His recent scoreless run has reignited talk over his potential. If the Tribe remains in rebuilding mode around the trade deadline next year, a Kerry Wood change of uni would open things up for the former Cardinals prospect.
• Drew Storen, Washington Nationals – The Nats aren’t sure if Mike MacDougal is the answer. Storen should help to answer the big club’s question next year.
• Chris Ray and Kam Mickolio, Baltimore Orioles – Here’s guessing Jim Johnson won’t be the stopper for all of next year. Mickolio has reinvented his delivery as a reliever, and Ray has stopped relying so heavily on his fastball.
• Ryan Perry, Detroit Tigers - It’s likely Fernando Rodney will walk after this season for a big payday. With Brandon Lyon also a free agent this upcoming offseason, it’ll be interesting to see if Detroit brings him back; he has been solid in interim work this year. Perry has had a rough go but has closer stuff. This is a long shot.

Out of the box

UPDATED 8/28 11:09 p.m. EDT: After a period of conflicting reports, the Angels acquired Rays starting pitcher Scott Kazmir for minor-league pitcher Alexander Torres and infielder Matthew Sweeney.

This trade doesn’t really change Kazmir’s already erratic fantasy value that much. He isn’t changing leagues; the Rays and Angels have similar bullpens, run support and ballpark factors.

The swap, however, gives another Rays arm a chance to enter the rotation, namely Wade Davis, who is 10-7 with a 3.26 ERA in 26 starts for Triple-A Durham. If Davis is summoned, he becomes an immediate pickup in deep leagues. With rosters also expanding next week, they really shouldn’t pass up this chance for him to have a David Price-type effect.

Kaz might be heading west, but his value would stay put

If it ends up being Andy Sonnanstine, pass.

Be sure to check out Hot off the Wire for the latest on this deal. Also check out our Diamond Market and Closer Hot Seat reports before you start your weekend.

Sliding into second

Quick and dirty expert league update:

• I hold a tenuous lead of 4.5 points over USA Today’s Steve Gardner atop the K-BAD, our host league. I’m also still worried about Joe Hamrahi’s third-place Baseball Prospectus squad, only nine points back of the lead, and The Hardball Times, only 10.5 behind. I have ample room to drop in steals. I also remain focused on buoying my ratios. Thank you, Chris Perez and Peter Moylan.
• In the 14-team Fantasy Sports Trade Association challenge, I have shot up the standings to third place and sit just six points out of the lead. My focus on alternating weeks of heavy starters and heavy relievers helped me gain ground in both categories.
  

  Welcome to the team, Ryan Braun

• Landing Ryan Braun for Dan Haren (and immediate drop Oliver Perez for Lastings Milledge) the day before the FSWA IIL III trade deadline hasn’t made much noise for me yet, but more importantly, with my start limit fast approaching I’ve shifted to the heavy setup plan for my pitching staff. I have too many playable outfielders I can’t drop. Besides Joe Nathan and Ryan Franklin, I currently employ Moylan, Hong-Chih Kuo, Sergio Romo and Kevin Jepsen. I’ll probably end up sticking with a rotation of Javier Vazquez, James Shields, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Scott Baker for the rest of the season. I’m not exactly comfortable with the last three, but Santana is showing signs of his 2008 self. My fifth-place standing here is my lowest position in an expert league this year.
• Nicholas Minnix won’t break atop the KFFL Internal League standings, and I’m forced to bide my time in second place for now. I’m 13 points out and am still searching for ways to break through. Injuries to David Wright and Nate McLouth have hurt, and I wasn’t able to ship saves before the trade deadline.

Rounding third

Hot off the Wire highlights:

• Stay abreast of Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez’s (hand, thumb) injuries, which may have an impact on Eric Young Jr.’s reps. I grabbed EYJ in several leagues as a steals flier. You should do the same, but be prepared to cut him loose if other needs arise.
• With Nyjer Morgan (hand) lost for the rest of ‘09, Willie Harris is expected to get regular playing time for the Nationals, but I bet impending callup Justin Maxwell will have the bigger impact by September’s end (hear that, NL-only managers?). You’ll have a potential steals contributor either way.
• Don’t be too excited about Kyle Davies‘ recent renaissance. The trendy early-season add has been a road warrior this year, and his recent trio of great outings all came away from Kauffman Stadium. I obviously like his next matchup (at the Athletics), but from there, I’d be cautious in his other expected days of work (vs. Angels, at Indians, at Tigers, vs. Red Sox).

Headfirst into home

A potential 2nd-round pick in 2010

Don’t worry. I’ll be more careful than Morgan. However, since everyone is releasing their 2010 lists in August ‘09, I’ll offer some initial predictions for what will happen on average next draft season, based on what we’ve seen this year and a dash of personal intuition:

• My roughly projected top 12 in mixed snake drafts, on average: Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, Ian Kinsler, Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Carl Crawford, Ryan Howard and David Wright. Jose Reyes will fall outside of this group but hover around the top of the second round.
• Joe Mauer will be taken in the late second or third round often; I will not take him this soon. The positional scarcity monster will resurface soon after with Brian McCann and Victor Martinez. In most circumstances I will continue to employ the late-round likes of Kurt Suzuki in two-catcher setups while targeting non-backstops early.
• Outside of Tim Lincecum, most of those considered elite starting pitchers will often fall past the first three rounds. In 2010, Chris Carpenter will be what CC Sabathia was in 2009.
• In ‘10, Alfonso Soriano will be the ‘09 Vladimir Guerrero.
• B.J. Upton falls into the fourth or fifth round and becomes one of the better bargains of 2010. Joey Votto will also go around that time, but that means a proper spike in his value.
• Some other 2010 undervalued players: Aramis Ramirez, Stephen Drew and Matt Wieters.
• Some 2010 overvalued players: Mauer, Adam L. Jones, Justin Upton, Michael Bourn, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Jason Bartlett and Andrew McCutchen.

I will unveil more in the coming weeks, including whether or not I will carry into 2010 my philosophy of filling out an infield early in drafts – or as I call it, the “Garrett Atkins Quandary.” More on the name origin as the season draws to an end, but you can probably already guess its meaning.

Don’t forget to tweet with this twit! If baseball isn’t your thing, let’s talk about Brandon Marshall, who’s putting two of my fantasy football teams in a vice.

Naturally, everyone loves a comeback story. Heck, even Rocky Balboa was a passable flick (more so an overdue correction of this atrocity).

Then again, many are tiring of this return.

Societal purists aren’t the only ones embracing second chances. Whether they overspent on that prospect, overvalued one good campaign or had some other bias toward a player, fantasy baseball players have been bitten by the hype bug.

It’s August. Worn off is the pain from the initial shots to the jaw from all your mishaps, and it’s time to see if someone else’s error (or even your own) can help you down the stretch.

Lesson: Everyone makes mistakes in drafts. As in life, you must adjust to those miscues. One way to do so is revisiting castoffs still floating on the wire late in the season.

Of course, everyone should know that draft value doesn’t matter right now, and not every mistake should be revisited (Delmon Young, Garrett Atkins, Mike Aviles, etc.). What matters is centering on those that have a chance to rebound.

Add Travis Snider. Now.

We saw some glimpses of this in the past few days. The baby-faced Travis Snider, who posted .242-3-12 in his first 2009 stint, was already brought back up from Triple-A Las Vegas to play in the Blue Jays’ outfield every day. He’s a masher in the making. Grab him now.

Have you added him yet? Good.

John Smoltz’s signing with the Cardinals deserves some fantasy attention. More on that here.

Texas mulligan

Well, the next entry on the list of triumphant fantasy baseball returns could be the Texas Rangers‘ Chris Davis.

We warned you during draft season that Davis was overvalued based on his MLB stint in ‘08; look at his batting eye ratio! Lo and behold, many spent a fifth-round pick on a .202-15-33 line. Sure, the homers were nice, but 33 ribbies in 258 at-bats couldn’t make up for that ugly clip.

Has Chris Davis turned things around?

Davis has swung himself upward, batting .324 with six taters and 28 RBIs in 141 at-bats at Triple-A Oklahoma City. More importantly: Despite striking out 33 times, he has also taken 23 walks. Though he recently suffered a hamstring injury, he returned to action Tuesday.

I’m not saying he’ll beat the world, but how many offensive impact players are we looking at for this point of the season? If not Davis, the callup from Oklahoma City may be big-sticked uberprospect Justin Smoak, who would also be an immediate pickup everywhere. A Davis callup would give you an eligible threat at both corner spots, though. If Davis continues his line-drive-hitting ways and slightly upgrades his patience, you could have a steal on your hands.

Remember, homer-empty squads should be more inclined to sacrifice other stats, like batting average, for single-column help if their team allows it. When urgent times arrive, you have to move past your prejudices and look at how a player can help you in the short term. We were critical of Davis’ preseason stock, but with September approaching, you might have to put on your fantasy beer goggles.

Other fliers

Besides mistakes, you should give prospects a chance, too. Earlier today, more prospects – both immediate fantasy pickups in deeps – entered the fray in the Indians’ Matt LaPorta (power) and the Reds’ Drew Stubbs (speed). More here.

Examine these other water-treading, returning or callup options (get the jump on Sept. 1 roster expansion) that may be worth another look as the season wanes:

• The Mariners’ Adrian Beltre (testicle) is due back late next week. He was on fire before he was … well … hit below the Beltre.
• Recently returning from a two-week absence for back soreness, Marlins outfielder Cameron Maybin has torn up Triple-A, batting .328 with 32 RBIs and seven steals for New Orleans since his May demotion. He’ll probably be back up once rosters expand. Turning 22 when the season started, Maybin lacked plate discipline. His 11.9 percent walk rate returns him to his typical farm performance. Maybin probably won’t keep this pace up when he returns after roster expansion, but if he runs more for the Fish, you can grab him for a reason.
• Pirates farmhand and Mariners castaway Jeff Clement (.287-21-86 in the minors this year) has not stopped his power boom since joining Triple-A Indianapolis: .282-7-18. He has at least an RBI in seven of his last 10 contests (11 total). Managing editor Nicholas Minnix has spent weeks stashing Clement in the FantasyPros911.com Bloggers’ Open NL-only challenge. That catcher eligibility could come in handy.
  

  Beltre could give your team a shot in the ... arm

• Don’t forget about the Brewers’ Corey Hart (appendix) and the Reds’ Jay Bruce (wrist). They’re prime DL stash fodder if they were dropped. Bruce may take a bit to get back into form after his wrist heals, but Hart was hitting .305 in July before his appendix gave him an unwanted doctor’s note.

Final word

Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad Stephen Strasburg signed and now has the daunting task of rebuilding a city’s baseball interest. It’s disconcerting, however, that the worst teams consistently earn rewards for losing. Maybe a lottery, or some other alteration, would help keep the same teams from earning picks in the top three every season.

Bringing this into our world: For your fantasy football and baseball keeper leagues in head-to-head format, instead of rewarding teams for tanking, why not award the top pick in the following year’s draft to the team that finishes first among the non-playoff squads?

Denoting order of finish in a 12-team league in which six teams make the playoffs, make the draft order go 7-8-9-10-11-12-6-5-4-3-2-1. It keeps things interesting down to the final week and gives the basement dwellers more incentive to improve.

You tell me

What are your suggestions for keeping the league fires burning in September? Any hazing for the last-place team? How do you maintain excitement?

To which other pieces of waiver wire fodder are you planning on giving a second chance?

Remember to follow me on Twitter and ask me any fantasy baseball or fantasy football questions!

Looking for late-round sleepers? These sneaky options boast improved value for point-per-reception drafters.

RB Jerome Harrison, Browns – While rook James Davis fits the handcuff mold for the aging Jamal Lewis, Harrison (foot, leg) presents a better opportunity to contribute each week if Lewis remains on the field. Despite battling injuries, the 5-foot-9, 205-pound Harrison has made noise in camp, supplementing his 7.2 yards per tote last year and 5.8 for his career.

New head coach Eric Mangini likes pass-catching scatbacks (ahem, Leon Washington); he’ll probably use Harrison often. Warnings: Beware of Davis, and if Derek Anderson wins the quarterback job, they won’t check down as much. Still, Cleveland will keep Lewis fresh, making Harrison a No. 5 back and flex option with upward potential.

WR Davone Bess, Dolphins – Remember the PPR impact Greg Camarillo (knee) had last season? With a productive camp, the smurftastic Bess has overtaken him on the hierarchy. If Camarillo can’t round into game shape, Bess will lock down the possession job alongside big-play threat Ted Ginn Jr.

Bess: This year's Greg Camarillo?

Following Camarillo’s Week 12 injury, Bess ranked in the top 25 for target totals among wideouts while averaging six catches per game. Consider the move-the-chains sophomore a No. 5 receiver in setups that reward catches.

TE Brent Celek, Eagles – L.J. Smith (Ravens) was a useful target for Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb. With Smith gone, Celek (shoulder) can continue cultivating his blossoming rapport with the signal caller that produced 19 connections and three scores in three playoff games. He suffered a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder in the first preseason game, but he should be fine.

Celek (6-foot-4, 255 pounds) gives Philly a big-bodied red zone target. He’s best drafted as a No. 2 option but could perform as a midrange PPR No. 1 at times during the year.

In the final product of my spewed thoughts, I conceded that there was a bit more deliberation this year than there had been in the past. That being said, I still think it’s a risky proposition.

I set out to prove this during the 29-round Fantasy Football Indepth Individual Defensive Players (IDP) Challenge, a point-per-reception setup and my second expert league draft to be played out this season. Many props for the invite to the folks at Indepth (part of our Fantasy Players network), who ran a smooth e-mail process throughout July using the MyFantasyLeague software.

This league’s starting lineup carries:

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 3 WR
• 1 TE
• 1 Flex RB/WR spot
• 2 DL
• 2 LB
• 2 DB

I’d like to thank my fellow drafters for an exciting process … and for not being upset at me taking a bit longer to pick during the last seven rounds or so; I was running around San Francisco on my vacation.

How it went down

Still, I felt I was able to build an Alcatraz-like foundation. Check out my team and share your thoughts. What would you have done differently?

With the seventh pick in the first round, I went with a healthier LaDainian Tomlinson – aging, yes, but primed to rebound from a “down” season.

The second round provided an even more shocking development: I landed DeAngelo Williams with the 18th overall pick.

Still no love for DeAngelo Williams

I’m taken aback not at the Williams trend (I’ve seen it happen before in a previous KFFL draft) but that the masses think he’ll drop off that much. Of course, expecting 20 touchdowns again is child-like optimistic, especially with Jonathan Stewart set to improve on his already impressive rookie year, but is it really out of rational thought to think Williams could be a No. 1 fantasy back again?  I’m more than pleased having him as my second in command.

I’m definitely not surprised that two receivers went within the first three picks. This doesn’t mean I agree with it, though. I was shocked to see Michael Turner fall to Pick 15. Wouldn’t mind having him as a No. 2, either, but I felt LT was better to have as a No. 1 in PPR, so the drop to the end of the first round was rare but understandable. If he was there, I may have deliberated taking him over DAW, but I’m a bit worried about Turner this year.

Lesson: If you’re in a snake draft and near the front turn, it’s still best to go RB-RB.

Following my continuous strategy this draft season, I followed my RB-RB with a WR-WR pair, which included Brandon Marshall in the fourth.

This isn't funny, Todd Haley....

Since this draft was conducted via e-mail throughout July, I wasn’t aware that new Chiefs head coach Todd Haley would hold a grudge against Dwayne Bowe, my third-rounder, and in August demote him to the second- and third-team offenses!!! Drops have been a big problem for the third-year Bowe, but hopefully Haley remembers Bowe’s talent … and fantasy impact. Though it’s making me anxious, I’m not too worried; I think (hope) it’s a move to light a fire under the third-year pass catcher.

My biggest crossroads of the draft: After handcuffing J-Stew to DeAngelo in the fifth, I was faced in the sixth round with taking my third wideout between Hines Ward versus Santonio Holmes – Same team, different skills. Since this is a PPR format, I went with Ward. Yes, it’s the conservative route, but I’m not as worried about Ward’s age as many others.

Sure, the Steelers will keep the ball on the ground more often with Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall healthy, but Ward returning to somewhere between his 2006 (74-975-6) and 2007 (71-732-7) seasons is nothing to frown on for a No. 3 wideout of proven PPR ability. Holmes is more of a hit-or-miss candidate, who of course has more upside and was probably worth the Round 6 shot.

Many think that in IDP drafts, they have to reach into the top 10 rounds to grab their top defensive player. I beg to differ:

• LB London Fletcher (13), still going at age 34
• LB E.J. Henderson
• SS Quintin Mikell
• FS Erik Coleman
• DE Darryl Tapp
• SS Chris Horton, who’ll step onto the elite stage this season
• DT Shaun Rogers
• LB Gary Brackett
• DE Tamba Hali

I gladly waited until 12 rounds were gone to enter this fray, but unfortunately my competitors waited just about as long. This is where you can take advantage of overselling real-life defensive studs. While your draftmates are grabbing elite linebackers and big names (Troy Polamalu, Ray Lewis, Shawne Merriman), you should be grabbing depth at the skill positions.

IDPs are interchangeable. This league rewards sacks and takeaways a bit more than standard scoring, but that doesn’t change the fact that their occurrences are harder to predict than wrapups.

When in doubt, go with the most consistent tackle producers. This is why you want to grab linebackers and safeties (preferably strong, but aggressive frees would work, too) before defensive linemen.

Other notes:

• Best value: Philip Rivers, Round 7, the seventh quarterback taken
  

  Rivers in the seventh? Don't mind if I do....

• Mulligan: Hines Ward, but the regret isn’t strong
• I’m a bit concerned about my receiver depth, especially if Bowe turns out to be bench fodder. My late-round shots on Mike Walker and Joey Galloway didn’t made me feel more comfortable about my No. 4 and 5 wideouts, Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) and Percy Harvin; though you should be going boom or bust in Rounds 11 and 14, if one of my top three goes down, I’ll be scrambling a little, especially with Nicks already hurt.

Grades

Quarterbacks: A-

Grabbing Rivers in the seventh and Carson Palmer in the 10th bumped this up to the best letter. The overlooked Daunte Culpepper made sense as a No. 3 in this deep a league, too.

Running backs: B+

The J-Stew handcuff limits my diversity a bit. I could’ve taken care of other needs instead of having “Icky” Ricky Williams as my No. 5, but it wasn’t a terrible selection in hindsight. Donald Brown makes up for Ricky’s static talent.

Wide receivers: C+

Bowe’s limbo (retroactive downgrading) and aforementioned depth issues put a ton of pressure on Marshall and Ward.

Tight ends: B

It was worth waiting on John Carlson for what I plucked before him. I think he’ll see a slight downgrade from last year, though, with T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the house.

IDPs: B

Acceptable for how long I waited – most excited about Horton and Tapp.

While you’re critiquing my team, remember to tweet with me and the rest of KFFL as your draft creeps closer! Shoot me your quandaries for both fantasy baseball and fantasy football!

In memoriam of one of the true clay-molding figures of my generation, John Hughes:

“Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in awhile, you could miss it.”

I enjoyed the body of Hughes’ work, but Ferris Bueller’s Day Off is arguably the preamble of the proverbial high school handbook.

Sure, it offers life lessons, but it could also serve as a guide for your trade deadline action. I bet chatter in your league has picked up as the cutoff approaches, right?

Some quick keys to the trade deadline for roto players, courtesy of the preamble:

1. “I am not going to sit on my [expletive] as the events that affect me unfold to determine the course of my life. I’m going to take a stand. I’m going to defend it. Right or wrong, I’m going to defend it.”

Don’t sit on your … hands! No team is perfect!!! Do your best to get it as CLOSE to perfect as possible.

2. “… Let my Cameron go …”

Identify which commodities you can swap before assessing which categories you can climb in most efficiently.

• If your placement in a counting category is pretty stable without much up or down movement, focus on areas in which you can pass several opponents for ranking points. Use your surplus.
• Make sure you can back yourself up in the stat column you’re giving away, though. A quick waiver wire search will help – if there are ample fill-in options that can give you help, feel free to sell your commodity.
• I’m not one for punting a category; every little bit that puts you close to finishing fourth or better in each category helps. However, if you’re at the point where you’re not gaining anything in a column, selling a chunk or all of what you have left isn’t a bad idea.

3. “Bueller? … Bueller? … Bueller?”

Don’t play the waiting game. If someone takes too long to respond to an offer, move on.

4. ” … I could be the walrus and I’d still have to bum rides off people.”

Don’t dismiss any of your leaguemates as trading partners, even those you’re in close standings quarters with.

Don’t just focus solely on obvious swaps, like power for steals. If you have a strong foothold in a category and one of your close competitors, Team X, is vulnerable elsewhere, think about “helping out” another owner, Team Y, that needs a slight nudge to overtake Team X. 

5. “Cameron has never been in love – at least, nobody’s ever been in love with him. If things don’t change for him, he’s gonna marry the first girl….”

Remember, you’re trading for STATISTICS, not player names. Don’t be married to names if you need help elsewhere. This late in the season, acquiring a specialist at a larger-than-normal price isn’t out of the ordinary.

And of course, after you pull of a heist, always remember to say (sing?) “Danke Schoen.”

Sliding into second

A truly Faustian development is confronting fantasy owners. You know the numbers are great, but you’re trying not to deceive yourself.

Feelin lucky?

Since his return from farm purgatory, the Cleveland Indians‘ Fausto Carmona has now turned in 11 innings of … well, waiver wire pickup-worthy work. The seven walks involved reminded us of the risk still present, but there are signs.

His groundball tendency returned – 11 of his 18 outs recorded hit the dirt. Carmona reportedly can now throw his slider and changeup for strikes. Keep in mind: Carmona’s chance at quality run support departed with the trade of Victor Martinez. Be careful and be ready to cut bait if you give him a try. Think Chien-Ming Wang’s margin of error.

Rounding third

Recapping a busy week for my expert leagues:

• I revamped some role players on my FSWA team, picking up Jordan Zimmermann (dropped Manny Parra), who’s due back soon, Bud Norris (Juan Gutierrez), Eugenio Velez (Carlos Guillen) and the quietly streaking Gerardo Parra (Franklin Gutierrez – the ride was fun while it lasted). I’m hovering at sixth place but stand 11.5 points out of the lead.
• My trade of Adam Dunn for Jacoby Ellsbury went through in the K-BAD Expert League this week. Hopefully Ellsbury runs off at least an extra 15 swipes for the remainder of the year for me to hold my first-place standing. I’ll miss the Big Donkey’s power presence (I have a soft spot for the guy), but it was a necessity given my lead in both homers and RBIs.
• More K-BAD: After riding a successful Tommy Hunter spot start, I grabbed Everth Cabrera today in the K-BAD to further feed my need … my need, for speed. More on this below. I also grabbed Brian Matusz (for a pitcher in the next section) in time for his relatively productive debut and Hong-Chih Kuo (Edwin Encarnacion) to become a staple in my ‘pen. More on Joe Torre’s next work horse below, also.
• Grabbed Phil Hughes (Hunter), Chris Getz (Mark Ellis) and Elijah Dukes (my long-awaited divorce with Garrett Atkins) in the KFFL Internal League, where I stand in second behind KFFL’s Nicholas Minnix by 16.5 points. I need to play Dukes more; in the last two days I’ve missed out on seven RBIs and counting as I write this.
• Fantasy Sports Trade Association Experts League, third of 14: In this weekly lineup league, I’m overloading on starters to catch up in wins and maintain my second-place status in K’s.  I missed out on Mike MacDougal’s four-save week but enjoyed Matusz’s success. However, I’m ditching Rick VandenHurk in the next FAAB process. I picked up both Cabrera and Rajai Davis (Michael Saunders) last week, and they have helped my steals total.

Headfirst into home

• It’s easier to fire someone on Friday, but I let go of Francisco Liriano yesterday. Knowing when to ditch your projects is vital. I picked him up off waivers in June. Well, by the time this week arrived, I decided I couldn’t deal with the WHIP crack anymore. His recent forearm issues and shaky rotation status, along with Matusz’s debut, made my decision easier. Check out more in the Diamond Market – Falling.
• Everth Cabrera has the green light. Let me give you the same to pick him up in deep formats.
• Check out some of my other thoughts in Friday’s Diamond Market- Rising!

Feel free to fire some trade questions to me at twitter.com/Tim_Heaney – that is, if it’s still up by the time you try it! You should also add KFFL’s Twitter account, while you’re at it….