LT begins running past defenders this week!

Excuse me while I pick the crow feathers out of my teeth after saying during the preseason that LaDainian Tomlinson would be second in the league in rushing this year.

Actually, I predicted a lot of things that haven’t come true, but this one is bothering me the most.

The San Diego Chargers‘ running back has been a bust this year. There, Captain Obvious said it again. Injuries have cost him two games; he has just 140 yards rushing, and has found the end zone once. He has chipped in another five receptions for 30 yards.

Not too long ago, LT would post better numbers than that in one game… not need three combined.

However, I’m not jumping ship. I’m not giving up. I’m not trying to trade him. I’m definitely not going to release him. Here are nine reasons why:

1. Barring a season-ending injury, you cannot cut a first-round draft pick no matter how crappy his season is going.

2. Second, you’re not going to receive any trade value in dealing him right now. In fact, I recently traded FOR him.

3. Tomlinson rushed 18 times for 70 yards (3.9 ypc) against a tough Denver Broncos team in Week 6. He seemed to have some bounce in his step. He looked fresh. Even more important, he looked healthy.

4. The Chargers have one of the better passing games in the league, forcing defenses to account for receiver Vincent Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates at all times. This, in turn, will take pressure off of the running game. Teams cannot load an extra man in the box to shut down the Chargers’ running game. Tomlinson, for as much as it hurts to say it, isn’t scaring defensive coordinators right now anyway.

5. LT is a proud guy. Nobody – not even those of us that drafted him high in fantasy football leagues – is more irritated with his lack of production than he is. Don’t underestimate pride.

6. Outside of the blowout at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers when he saw just seven carries, LT has averaged at least 3.9 yards per carry in his other two games. That’s better than the likes of Brandon Jacobs (3.6), Michael Turner (3.5), Steve Slaton (3.0) and many others. The big difference is LT hasn’t seen nearly the touches they have so far, mostly due to missing a few games.

7. Tomlinson, despite the fact Darren Sproles is an electrifying receiver out of the backfield, is still catching passes – he has five in three games. Not a lot, but in PPR leagues every point counts.

8. The Chargers, predicted by many to blow out the rest of the AFC West this year, are notorious for starting slow. It seems like they need to have their back firmly against the wall before they start playing solid football. At 2-3, you can’t get off to much slower of a start. The onslaught from their offense is coming…

9. The upcoming San Diego schedule isn’t too bad:

* Statistics represent yardage allowed to opposing backs over the last four weeks.

Over the next 11 games, I project Tomlinson to rush for at least 850 yards, five to seven touchdowns, have 25 receptions, 200 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.

Those numbers would put him on pace for an average of 95 total yards per game.

Too optimistic? Possibly. Too ambitious? Doubt it. Reachable? Definitely!

Seven of his next 11 opponents are allowing at least 90 yards a game rushing. Seven of the 11 are also allowing at least 35 yards receiving. Four of them are giving up at least 100 yards on the ground to backs.

He’s no longer a RB1. That’s clear, but I’m not ready to say he’s fallen all of the way to a RB3 or lower. Tomlinson can be, however, a solid RB2 down the stretch and possibly a borderline No. 1 back during a few of the matchups (Kansas City two times, Oakland, Cleveland, and Tennessee).

Don’t jump ship, there is a lot more to come from Tomlinson the rest of the season.

If not, I’ll be having seconds on that crow.

Going to the Wells too often would be a nice sight to see

Entering the 2009 fantasy football season, there were not a lot of rookies high on my cheat sheet. Unfortunately, Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Wells was one of them, and I snagged him as a RB3 or RB4 often.

Wells, with the help of the Bonini Curse (Madden and SI have nothing on me), has been a colossal bust.  So what’s a fantasy player to do?

Wells has rushed for 124 yards on 35 carries. He’s clicking along at 3.5 yards per attempt, and has one reception for seven yards. End zone trips equal a big, fat zero. Oh, and he has lost a fumble, too. He is on pace for about 400 yards rushing and no touchdowns!

For a guy drafted in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft, and a player that was expected to unseat Tim Hightower as the team’s feature back, there hasn’t been a lot for Wells to E-mail home about (hey, gotta change the old saying to keep up with the times). Blame a training camp injury if you desire, but the fact is Wells is doing next to nothing for fantasy teams.

Hightower, on the other hand, has rushed for 158 yards on 51 carries (3.1 ypc) and three touchdowns. He also caught 29 balls for 228 yards. He hasn’t been special, but Wells hasn’t come close to pushing him for the starting job.

Hightower not being pushed for No. 1 job

In standard performance fantasy football scoring, Hightower ranks 21st overall (53 points), and Wells – if you can see far enough – ranks 71st with 10 points. He is surrounded by the likes of the great Garrett Wolfe (Chicago Bears), Leonard Weaver (Philadelphia Eagles) and Brian Leonard (Cincinnati Bengals). Not really rushing out to pick up those other three backs, huh?

To make matters even worse, the oft-injured Wells is currently sporting a hip injury. While it isn’t believed to be serious, it’s just one more reason to have concerns.

So what do owners of Beanie, like myself, do?

Many fantasy football owners have already jumped ship. He’s owned in 31 percent of Yahoo! Sports leagues, 51.9 percent of ESPN leagues and 56 percent of CBSSports.com leagues.

I reached out to our Arizona insider, who is also a fantasy football vet, to get his take on the situation. He, like many others, is sitting on Wells with hope of future growth within the offense.

Unfortunately, he feels it may not come until the final six weeks of the season.

The Cardinals may look to slowly work him into the mix at that time much like they did with cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. At that point, it may be too late if you’re currently struggling to find play-worthy running backs.

After seeing no more than seven carries during his first four games, the Cardinals fed him the rock 12 times during a Week 6 thumping of the Seattle Seahawks. Unfortunately, he didn’t shine with his extra opportunities, as he had his second worst yards-per-carry outing (2.4). Wells did see some touches early, so his extra carries were not purely to run out the clock.

Arizona Cardinals Schedule

Statistics shown are stats over the last four weeks given up on average to opposing running backs.

Week 7 – @ New York Giants: Allowing 67.5 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3 rec, 12.8 rec yards, 0 rec TD

Week 8 – Carolina Panthers: Allowing 108.3 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 3.3 rec, 28.7 rec yards, 0.33 rec TD

Week 9 – @ Chicago Bears: Allowing 75.7 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 6.3 rec, 52.3 rec yards, 0.33 rec TD

Week 10 – Seattle Seahawks: Allowing 65.8 rush yards, 0.75 rush TD, 6 rec, 39.8 rec yards, 0 rec TD

Week 11 – @ St. Louis Rams: Allowing 101.8 rush yards, 1.75 rush TD, 4.5 rec, 44 rec yards, 0.25 rec TD

Week 12 – @ Tennessee Titans: Allowing 103.3 rush yards, 0.75 rush TD, 6.5 rec, 44.5 rec yards, 0.25 rec TD

Week 13 – Minnesota Vikings: Allowing 81.5 rush yards, 0.50 rush TD, 5.5 rec, 56.3 rec yards, 0 rec TD

Week 14 – @ San Francisco 49ers: Allowing 112.3 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 6 rec, 33.3 rec yards, 0 rec TD

Week 15 – @ Detroit Lions: Allowing 92.5 rush yards, 0.75 rush TD, 5.5 rec, 40.5 rec yards, 0.50 rec TD

Week 16 – St. Louis Rams: Allowing 101.8 rush yards, 1.75 rush TD, 4.5 rec, 44 rec yards, 0.25 rec TD

Week 17 – Green Bay Packers: Allowing 86.3 rush yards, 0.33 rush TD, 4.67 rec, 33.3 rec yards, 0 rec TD

Weeks 8, 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16 are all attractive options for the Cardinals’ running game and Wells. However, you need to keep these facts in mind:

• The Cardinals are LAST in rushing attempts in the league – 19.8 per game. That’s less than the league-worst 21.2 they averaged a year ago! How bad is that? The Miami Dolphins are almost averaging double (36.6) what the Cardinals do.
• The Cardinals are tied for LAST in yards per attempt (with the Chargers) – 2.9 ypc.
• The Cardinals are tied for LAST in yards rushing per game (with the Chargers, again) – 57.6 ypg.
• The longest carry of the season for the Cardinals is 17 yards; tied for LAST in the league with – you guessed it – the Chargers.
• The Cardinals are LAST in rushing first downs: 15

The Cardinals feature a trio of rock-solid receivers (Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston) and are averaging a league-leading 42.2 passing attempts per game. Conventional wisdom would be defenses have to cheat against the pass, opening up running lanes. While that may be the case, the Cardinals are not taking advantage of the situation. They are a pass-first mentality; the past year and a half has proven it to be all too true.

So, even if Beanie starts to see more carries (keep in mind he already has a better YPC than Hightower), it’s still likely to be a committee approach and Hightower has proven to be a capable receiving back, so Wells won’t contribute much there.

When you are last in the league in rushing attempts, there isn’t a big piece of pie to go around, so the time share will only further diminish his value even if he garners the majority of the carries.

If you’re deep at running back, continue to stash Beanie away as a RB5 or RB6. You’ve made it this far and, despite all of the negative team statistics regarding the lack of running the ball, he still has marginal upside you probably can’t replace on your waiver wire.

If you’re hurting, now is the time to take action. While he has a favorable schedule down the stretch, you can only afford to be patient so long.

I’m starting to shop him to the owner of Hightower to give that owner the handcuff, while looking for a player who may be able to contribute immediately to may fantasy squad, or to obtain a handcuff to one of my own starters.

What do you plan to do with Beanie? Suck it up and wait it out or send him elsewhere?

So much talent, so little production...

Let me put my cool Captain Obvious hat on: The Oakland Raiders are horrible!

Just how horrible are they in fantasy football?

In standard fantasy football scoring, the Raiders are led by place kicker Sebastian Janikowski in fantasy points (24). Sadly, it is not because he had a strong first month – he is the 22nd ranked fantasy kicker so far.

Running back Darren McFadden (knee), who is out possibly for the next month, is the next best at 23 points, just a point behind their kicker. 

Just how bad is that? Here’s a comparison: Struggling Washington Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell is averaging 16 points PER WEEK!

Wait, it gets worse for Raider Nation: Quarterback JaMarcus Russell has somehow squeezed – he surely couldn’t have passed his way there – his way into third on the team in scoring with 22 points despite his 39.8 completion percentage. Receiver Louis Murphy (21) and runner Michael Bush (20) round out the team’s top-five fantasy-point getters. 

Tight end Zach Miller has been one of their most attractive fantasy options, but he currently ranks 27th amongst tight ends with 13 fantasy points. Now that defenses have figured out Russell is incapable of throwing to his receivers, they have taken Miller out of the equation – he has just four points in his past three games!

Receiver Chaz Schilens (foot) was originally thought to be a fantasy sleeper by many this season, and I still see plenty of owners – myself included – holding onto him. However, with Russell’s lack of ability in the passing game, his “sleeper” status is a pipe dream whenever he does return from his injury.

I’m not sure Tim Brown and Jerry Rice could do any better in this offense!

Usually, even the worst of the worst NFL teams have a few options you can bank (see Calvin Johnson with the Detroit Lions last year). The Raiders, however, are doing a good job to blow that theory out of the water.

The team is playing from behind often, rendering the running game virtually useless. The Raiders have allowed 86 points so far this year, and they’re losing by an average of 11 points per game. After playing their first two games (vs. San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs) tight, they’ve been blown out 23-3 at the hands of the Denver Broncos and 29-6 by the Houston Texans the last two weeks. 

Things aren’t getting better, they’re getting worse.

Nonetheless, desperate times (Bye weeks) call for desperate actions, so you undoubtedly have to look to acquire Bush and back Justin Fargas to a lesser extent. Bye weeks can make us all do things we feel dirty about.

Other than the running backs, it’s time to kiss good-bye to all other Raiders players from your fantasy football team. Miller, Murphy, receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey and Russell can be cast aside to the waiver wire. There are better options out there, and nobody is going to want them.

Just hang onto Oakland runners!

McFadden, who has torn meniscus and could just miss two games, has been utilized 61 times, but with no play at quarterback, defenses are shutting down their most physically talented weapon to the tune of 3.1 yards per carry. He’s still owned in close to 57 percent of leagues polled, despite averaging 36 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game.

I couldn’t fault you for parting ways with McFadden now, and you wouldn’t get even a shiny dime for him in a trade… unless you have a silly Oakland fan in your league and you can liquor him up before talking trade. However, if he comes back on the quick end of his estimated time out, he’ll have a few matchups he may be able to exploit provided the Raiders aren’t forced to abandon the run immediately.

Bush, who is available in about 79 percent of leagues polled, is averaging a bit better per carry (4.0), but when the two are averaging 11.8 and 7.5 rushing attempts per game, respectively, one can hardly expect greatness. Hell, we would be happy with mediocrity at this point.

Fargas has just 12 carries on the season, but saw 10 of them last weekend following McFadden’s injury. He’ll be part of the time-share with Bush, so those who are desperate for a warm body at running back may be forced to give him some attention.

Neither should be viewed as more than a low-end No. 3 fantasy back or flex option, which many find themselves in need of when the Bye weeks roll in.

Raiders Opponents vs. Running Back Position

* indicates teams that are giving up more than the league average of 17.3 fantasy points per week to opposing running backs.

Bad news: The Raiders only face four teams giving up more than the league average fantasy points allowed the remainder of the year, which points to a tough schedule for fantasy runners.

Good news: Three of the four good matchups come in their next five games, which could give you a hand through covering for starters on a Bye.

More bad news: The Giants, Eagles and Chargers can all score points – and quickly – so if the Raiders fall behind early, their running game will go out the window.

Their next good matchup (Cleveland) comes in Week 16; unfortunately, most Raiders’ players won’t help you get into the playoffs to have to worry about that game, but that game will be an ideal matchup for the Raiders backs.

Cut ties with any Raider not listed as a running back. You’ll likely find more points, and higher potential out of other options on your league’s waiver wire.

The United Football League took the field, as the Las Vegas Locomotives defeated the California Redwoods 30-17 in the league’s first-ever game.

For those of us that watched, it was definitely a big upgrade over the last former independent league (XFL). There were also a lot of familiar NFL faces: quarterback J.P. Losman, running back Marcel Shipp, running back DeDe Dorsey and head coach Jim Fassel to name a few.

In bouncing around Web this morning and last night, I wasn’t able to find a great deal of exposure given to the league, which cannot be considered promising with it being in it’s first year and the economy being what it is.

Nonetheless, I’m hoping the four-team league succeeds.

Since NFL Europe closed up shop and the Arena League isn’t playing this year, so the NFL could use an “unofficial” developmental league for players, and NFL-hopeful players get another chance to showcase their skills.

Here are some more items/thoughts about the league’s first game:

The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports UFL officials were hoping for a crowd of 15,000, but the actual attendenence wasn’t even a third of that even though the announced attendance was 14,209 fans.

Mike Freeman, of CBSSports.com, believes someone gave the UFL a shovel and told them to start digging their own grave by pitting them against the MLB playoffs and college football on Thursday night…

Michael Lombardi, of The National Football Post, recommends the UFL play their games in the spring when people are starved for football action…

The next UFL game has the Florida Tuskers playing host to the New York Sentinel Saturday. Tune in or DVR it; there really is no such thing as too much football, but I will agree with Lombardi in the thought that maybe earlier in the year would be better timing… Give it a shot, who knows, maybe we’ll be playing UFL fantasy leagues in the future, too!

Oh, if you’re interested in more details on the league itself, check out ufl-football.com and their 2009 media guide can be found at: http://www.ufl-football.com/press/2009/10/08/ufl_2009_media_guide

Has Witten's fantasy value hit the turf?

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten was taken as the top tight end in most fantasy football league drafts this year and with good reason. However, with a month of football action under our belts, Witten hasn’t lived up to the high billing – and not necessarily through any fault of his own.

In standard non-PPR scoring, Witten is the 15th ranked tight end (for those of you in PPR leagues, he’s coming in at eighth). The likes of Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville Jaguars), Benjamin Watson (New England Patriots), Heath Miller (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Todd Heap (Baltimore Ravens) are even ahead of him, which not many would have expected a month into the game.

Witten is averaging 4.5 receptions, 53 receiving yards and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game so far. Through four games last year, Witten averaged 6.75 receptions, 90.8 receiving yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game. Only his touchdowns are on par with last year.

Can Romo pick up his level of play?

His best buddy, quarterback Tony Romo (averaging 247.5 yards passing, one touchdown and one interception per game), is struggling, and the offense seems to lack a true identity. Witten is being targeted two times less per game so far, and none of the team’s receivers have been able to step up to steal consistent attention from defenses. Despite all of the drama Terrell Owens, now with the Buffalo Bills, caused, Owens forced defenses to respect the receivers.

Making matters worse, the remainder of the season finds the Cowboys facing some tough tight-end matchups:

* Allowing less than league average (7.03 points) fantasy points to tight ends through four weeks

Also worth noting: The Cowboys have one of the more difficult schedules the remainder of the season in terms of fantasy quarterback points allowed by defenses, too. If Romo struggles, Witten also struggles.

The upcoming week, versus the Kansas City Chiefs, could be a make-or-break game for the Cowboys (2-2) despite it being so early in the fantasy season. This is a game the team should roll over their opponent. If they don’t, they’ll have the Bye week to prepare for a tough Atlanta Falcons squad and all fingers will be pointed on Romo.

With a healthy amount of fantasy-worthy tight ends available this year, now may be the time to look to deal Witten if you need an upgrade at other skill positions.

I’d hold him through this weekend’s game, and – provided he has a big game versus the Chiefs – you could send him to another owner and upgrade at another position of need.

Witten’s name carries a lot of value based on perception, so you may be able to get someone else to bite while his value is higher after a big game. Even if he struggles, his name alone allows you to make a case for him in trade talks.

In PPR leagues, you could take the same approach, but the need isn’t as high due to the extra value he’s obtaining through his handful of receptions each week. However, if you’re struggling and need to start making some moves, he is one you could look to put on the trade block in your fantasy league.

Who is the worst team in the NFL? Sound off below and let us hear your thoughts!

LT possibly on the shelf again...

Is anyone else feeling a little déjà vu right now? Haven’t we danced this dance before?

San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson was on the sidelines too often during the second half of the team’s win over the Oakland Raiders Monday night.

Fantasy owners of Tomlinson, much like last year, could only curse in frustration or crack open another cold one while watching backup running back Darren Sproles score the winning touchdown and catch a handful of passes during the second half.

Tomlinson, unfortunately, suffered another injury to his lower leg. According to Kevin Acee, of The San Diego Union-Tribune, LT rolled his ankle on a shovel pass earlier in the game. Adding insult to injury, Tomlinson fumbled the football on the play – losing his first fumble in his last 987 touches.

“It wasn’t bad enough I couldn’t play,” Tomlinson said. “Toward the end, it really got tight on me.”

According to Acee, Tomlinson was limping badly after the game.

Oh, boy.

LT, according to head coach Norv Turner during his post-game press conference, said Tomlinson will undergo more tests Tuesday.

I know it’s early and the docs still need to check him out, but I think I can see pretty clearly into my crystal ball what’s going to happen in the coming weeks. Tomlinson will be limited and/or held out of practice most of the week, try to tough it out during the game only to leave time after time because he is not as effective as he needs to be.

I hope I’m wrong, but this just seems far too similar to last year.

A lot more Sproles coming soon?

Sproles, get ready to earn your franchise-player paycheck. I have a feeling your number is going to be called a lot in the coming weeks.

For owners of LT, I hope you were smart enough to handcuff Sproles to him because you’re not likely to find him on the waiver wire. If you need some help on the waiver wire, be sure to check out this week’s report on the subject to find some gems to add to your fantasy squad.

Who will be the Pats top runner?

The 2009 NFL season started with a bang Thursday night, as the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Tennessee Titans in overtime. What a great way to start the season, especially for you fantasy owners of wide receiver Santonio Holmes, who went over a 100 yards receiving and found the end zone.

The first week of the season is always the most interesting one. Whether you run a fantasy sports website or not, we are all in the same boat. We all spend the offseason prognosticating what will happen in the upcoming season. We all have an opinion – some more wild than others depending on the situation – and we all love to be proven right when it plays out how we anticipated.

Like you, I’m going to be paying close attention to many situations around the league this weekend. I recently offered up all of my bold predictions for the year, but here are some of the situations I am going to be paying the closest attention to in Week 1:

Who will take over as the New England Patriots top running back?

I have drafted Fred Taylor late in a lot of leagues this year; I even have Laurence Maroney in a few and just recently started snagging Sammy Morris in others. I’m a big believer in Freddy T, even though he is long in the tooth. The Patriots, as usual, keep everything close to the vest so nobody – possibly not even Bill Belichick himself – knows which back is going to step up and take on the majority of the carries at running back. Since I own Taylor, Maroney and Morris, it’ll probably end up being BenJarvus Green-Ellis!

Will motivation and health be enough for LaDainian Tomlinson?

Will the Bonini Curse take out LT?

LT is on a boatload of my fantasy football teams this year. That could be bad for LT, as the “Bonini Curse” ranks right up there with the Madden one. However, LT is healthy, has a chip on his shoulder and is in an explosive offense. Will that be enough to return him to fantasy stardom? If it is, we’re going to be looking really good around here. We have had LT as high as No. 2 overall on our fantasy football draft board for quite some time. I can’t wait to see him on the field with a 20-plus touch showing to see what is still left in the tank. Granted, he is going against the Oakland Raiders this weekend so I will have to take that into account following the game.

Can the Green Bay Packers successfully adjust to a 3-4 defensive scheme?

The Packers have one of the most lethal offenses in the league, and it will be even better this year with running back Ryan Grant exploding. However, will their defense be able to stop anyone? A bad defense means the Packers’ offense is going to have to put up a lot of points again this year to stay in games. A better than average defense means they won’t have to light up the score board unless they want to… I think I know which direction most fantasy football players are hoping this turns out.

Does Brett Favre have anything left?

I think Favre is done. However, for as much fun as I have had poking fun at ol’ grey beard this offseason, I am really curious to see what he can bring to the table for the Minnesota Vikings. Many of the talking heads have said the Vikes were a “Favre away from the Super Bowl.” Well, he is there now so it’s Super Bowl or bust, right? It’s put up or shut up for Favre. Can he silence the critics like myself with his on-field play? Oh, and I want to see how long it takes for him to shed a tear. You know it’s coming…

Can rookie quarterbacks Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford succeed immediately?

The bar is quite high for these two rookie signal callers after what Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco did for their respective teams last year. I still think the Detroit Lions would have been better going with Daunte Culpepper to start the year over Stafford, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt – for now. Sanchez, as you’ve probably heard me say a dozen times in the last month, has impressed me. He is comfortable in the system and has just enough weapons around him to cause some damage. Now it’s up to him. Either way, I’m not touching either in a fantasy football league (sans complete dynasty formats) until I see some strong consistency and production out of them.

Are the Oakland Raiders really that bad?

Can McFadden carry the Raiders?

Seriously, can it be true? Year after year I start to think there is no possible way they can be as pathetic as the previous year. Not only do they often prove me wrong, they do an even better job at dropping a turd on the field. Hell, they just traded a first-round draft choice for defensive end Richard Seymour and he isn’t even willing to show up! I can’t say I blame him… Also, from the Raiders, I want to get a good look at running back Darren McFadden. He is the team’s most talented weapon on offense; but can he stay healthy and carry the team? I am looking forward to finding out.

What are you looking forward to seeing more of in Week 1? Share your thoughts; I and other KFFLians want to hear them!

Prediction: Favre will cry

The 2009 NFL regular season is here, and the real fun is ready to kick off.

Every season brings new surprises; it also brings things that make you scratch your head. If everything made as much sense on the field as it does on paper, in spreadsheets and through equations, the game wouldn’t be nearly as fun — or maddening trying to prognosticate what’s going to happen!

Here are some things I am going to hang my hat on entering the year. It’ll be 17 weeks before we know how right — or wrong — I am. Things I think I think entering the 2009 season are:

I’ll start with an easy one so, that way I have at least one right: Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre cries.

New England Patriots running back Fred Taylor will lead the team in rushing yards, touchdowns and fantasy football production. He’ll be a more than adequate flex-play for fantasy leaguers this year.

Miami Dolphins backup quarterback Chad Henne starts at least seven games for the Dolphins, and shows some of the moxie that made him a fan favorite at the University of Michigan. Offensive tackle Jake Long keeping Henne safe… haven’t we seen this before?

I’m stuck(ey) on you… New York Jets wide receiver Chansi Stuckey is Johnny on the Spot for the Jets all year. He leads the team in receptions and receiving yards. Receiving touchdowns will fall to second-year tight end Dustin Keller.

Grant explodes this year

Green Bay Packers running back Ryan Grant silences his critics and makes everyone forget about Brandon Jackson behind him. Finally healthy, and with a full training camp under his belt, Grant piles up 1,700 offensive yards and scores 12 times. He also makes me smile all season for being able to snag him as late as Round 4 of fantasy football drafts…

All of the fantasy football participants jumping all over the jock strap of Buffalo Bills running back Fred Jackson are sadly disappointed when he doesn’t do any better than last year’s 571 rushing yards and 317 receiving yards. Still good numbers, mind you, but not the break-out season many are looking for.

Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice piles up 1,400 combined yards rushing and receiving. He catches at least 40 passes and scores eight times.

Patriots wide receiver Joey Galloway stays healthy and posts 60 receptions, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. Not bad production for the third option in the passing game.

New York Jets running back Leon Washington continues to play second-fiddle to Thomas Jones all season…

Free-agent wide receiver Marvin Harrison never signs with a new team and quietly disappears into retirement.

The Cleveland Browns win just three games all season. They make a change at quarterback – again – in season, only to have the same mediocre results.

Parker will prove many wrong this year

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Willie Parker stays healthy all season and shows signs of being “Fast Willie Parker” once again. He keeps second-year back Rashard Mendenhall firmly behind him on the depth chart, and in playing time.

Wide receiver Chris Henry leads the Cincinnati Bengals in receiving touchdowns, and he supplants Laveranues Coles as the team’s No. 2 receiver a month into the season.

Cowboys oft-injured wide receiver Miles Austin comes out of no where, stays healthy and leads the Cowboys’ receivers in yardage and touchdowns this year.

Cowboys wideout Roy Williams, while clowning around during practice, bets a teammate he can punt a football and hit the jumbo-Jerry-tron above the field. He suffers a season-ending groin injury in the process.

Houston Texans second-year running back Steve Slaton sees the majority of the goal-line carries all season and becomes a top-five fantasy football running back this season… top-three in point-per-reception leagues.

Speaking of the Texans, quarterback Matt Schaub somehow avoids the injury-bug all season and starts all 16 games for the team. The Texans win the AFC South, too. Something tells me these two are going to come back to haunt me!

Tennessee Titans oft-troubled backup quarterback Vince Young replaces Kerry Collins as the team’s starting quarterback after six games.

In a standard-scoring fantasy league, Tennessee Titans running back LenDale White scores more fantasy points than exciting runner Chris Johnson.

Favre loses three close games because he throws poor passes, which are intercepted near the end of games. He cries over that, too.

Cadillac will lead the Bucs in rushing

Basically left for dead on the washed-up running back junk heap two months ago, Tampa Bay Buccaneers runner Cadillac Williams leads the Bucs in rushing this year.

The Oakland Raiders hated being outdone by the Detroit Lions last season. This year, they try their best to go 0-16, but fall short by winning two games on accident. Oh, they also fire head coach Tom Cable during the season. Actually, I think the Raiders can be the second-best team in the AFC West. They will do everything they can not to let that happen.

San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson leads the AFC in rushing yards. He would lead the NFL, too, if it wasn’t for that darn Adrian Peterson rushing for 1,800 yards with the Minnesota Vikings.

Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez throws for 3,400 yards and 20 touchdowns in his rookie season.

Denver Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton shushes his critics and throws for close to 3,800 yards and 22 touchdowns in the pass-happy Denver system.

Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson returns to previous glory, rushing for 1,300 yards and punishes opposing defenses once again. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to help return the Chiefs to any form of glory.

Dallas Cowboys running back Felix Jones is this year’s version of Titans’ Chris Johnson. While Marion Barber III is the starter, Jones chips in close to 1,300 yards of combined rushing and receiving yards and finds the end zone eight times.

New York Giants rookie wide receiver Hakeem Nicks makes the team forget about Plaxico Burress, and leads all rookies in receptions, receiving yardage and touchdowns.

Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook sheds the injury-bug during the regular season and plays in all 16 regular season games.

Panic sets in at the Metrodome when Favre cannot be found just before kickoff. Favre is late for the home game because he cannot decide which pair of cleats he should wear that day. It’s a tough decision for Favre, also one that brings a tear to his eye.

Washington Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell is a top-10 fantasy quarterback in standard fantasy league scoring systems.

Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw combines for over 1,000 yards of combined offense and scores at least six times.

Bryant will disappoint

Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise wide receiver Antonio Bryant fails to match last year’s numbers of 84 receptions, 1,249 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, as the Buccaneers’ passing game struggles all season.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck rebounds after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign and throws for 3,700 yards and 27 touchdowns.

Eagles wideout Jason Avant becomes the team’s second-best receiving option statistically behind second-year receiver DeSean Jackson. He catches at least 60 passes for 700 yards and four scores as the team’s clutch third-down option.

Eagles rookie receiver Jeremy Maclin only makes an impact on special teams and contributes little to the team’s offense. He has less than 20 receptions in his first season.

Saints wide receiver Robert Meachem finally gets his act together this year and beats out receiver Devery Henderson for the No. 3 receiver spot in the offense early in the year. Meachem, the team’s most physically dominating receiver, has at least 40 receptions, 700 yards and four touchdowns.

Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. I don’t care that he doesn’t know the offense. He is the team’s best option on offense amongst the receivers, and they are going to get him the football regardless of how little he knows the offense and how big of a turd he has been during the offseason.

Not buying into the hype

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler shows Bears’ fans why his ego is even bigger than the Windy City itself. He calls out his teammates. He calls out his coaches. He calls out the fans. He demands the team give him a top-notch receiver, and his numbers suffer all season long. Oh, and then he demands a raise.

Seahawks WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh is second in the NFC (behind New Orleans RB Reggie Bush) in receptions.

New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush finally stays healthy and plays in 16 games this season. He leads the NFL in receptions, continuing to prove he isn’t really a running back.

Irritated with the poor play of quarterback Byron Leftwich, the Buccaneers turn their reigns over to rookie Josh Freeman.

Arizona Cardinals backup quarterback Matt Leinart, replacing an injured Kurt Warner, starts at least five games for the Cardinals and makes the team have buyer’s remorse in regards to how much money they invested in Warner during the offseason.

St. Louis Rams backup quarterback Kyle Boller starts at least five games for the Rams in place of oft-injured quarterback Marc Bulger this year.

The Seahawks win the NFC West.

Bears wide receiver Earl Bennett, a second-year pro, leads the team’s receivers in receptions, yards and touchdowns this season despite not making an impact in the slightest last season.

This Gore didn't invent the Internet...

San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore is the second-best running back in the NFC in terms of rushing yards. He trails just running backs Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson in overall rushing yards this season.

Detroit Lions rookie wide receiver Derrick Williams moves up the depth chart into the No. 2 receiver role by mid-season. He isn’t worth owning in fantasy football leagues early, but ends up with at least 45 receptions, 500 yards and two touchdowns this season.

Cowboys backup tight end Martellus Bennett catches 35 balls for 420 yards and three touchdowns. Not bad for someone playing second fiddle to all-pro Jason Witten.

Oh, and did I mention Favre cries?

That wraps up my wild and crazy predictions for the 2009 NFL season. Do you agree with my assessments? Disagree?

Do you have some wild and crazy predictions of your own? Let us hear them below in the comments area!

I’m drinking the Kool-Aid of:

Sanchez has impressed

QB Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – Sanchez hit all five of his passing attempts for 67 yards and a touchdown in his only drive Thursday against the Eagles. He looks sharp. Seriously, this kid continues to impress me every time I watch him. He looks defensive backs off, has a live arm, and is not afraid to push the ball downfield. Still not liking him for single year fantasy leagues, but he definitely is a long-term option. I’m not completely writing him off as a spot-start option as the year progresses, but he is going to have rookie growing pains.

QB Vince Young, Tennessee Titans – An erratic preseason came to an end on a high note, as he hit 7-of-12 passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. Sometimes he looks amazing; sometimes he makes coaches want to pull their hair out. He also rushed five times for 38 yards and a score. I’m not a fan, but I’m becoming a believer he will take over for Kerry Collins at some point this year.

RB Mike Goodson, Carolina Panthers – The Panthers might be turning into the new Denver Broncos when it comes to producing running backs. Goodson continued his strong preseason, rushing for 79 yards on 15 carries. He also caught two passes for 13 yards. With Jonathan Stewart (Achilles’) no where to be found the past month, Goodson may play a significant role behind DeAngelo Williams the next few weeks.

RB James Davis, Cleveland Browns – I have been talking about this guy for a couple of weeks now. Digging him – big time! He had another five carries for 37 yards Thursday. It was the first preseason game he has played in that he didn’t catch any balls. If I have Jamal Lewis and I want a handcuff, Davis is my guy. He has had longs of 81-, 16- and 21-yards, respectively, in the last three preseason games. Sign me up late in drafts, as I love the potential as my RB5. On top of that, there are now rumblings Lewis may be cut today. Stay tuned!

Nicks will be the top fantasy rookie WR this year

WR Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants – Nicks had just one catch Thursday, but he made it count – a 64-yard touchdown reception. He has three scores in his last two games, and apparently a hip injury he suffered isn’t too serious. I am a bit concerned about the bumps and bruises he seems to come up with early in his career, but I’m digging what I’m seeing on the field. Some here have compared him to an Anquan Boldin-like option for the G-men. I still like him as the top fantasy rookie receiver this year.

I’m over it:

QB Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles – Vick looked like a quarterback who hasn’t played in two years. That isn’t a surprise, but it’s a disappointment after he was so sharp the week before. Vick is going to have his good days, and his bad ones this year. He is going to help the offense at times, and knock them out of rhythm other times. I think Philly will end up regretting bringing him on board, but hindsight is 20-20 now for them. Vick hit 7-of-11 passes for 26 yards and threw a pick; he also fumbled twice, losing one of them. Vick was holding onto the football way too long, and was sacked four times. On the ground, he rushed seven times for 35 yards.

Not buying into Stafford yet

QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions – Stafford hit 5-of-9 passes for 81 yards with two turnovers (one pick, one fumble). He really could have sealed the deal in the competition for the starting job, as Daunte Culpepper (foot) did not play. However, he didn’t. While Stafford is being paid like he has won three Super Bowls, we have to remember he is just a rookie and numbers like we saw Thursday are going to happen. If Culpepper is healthy, I’m picking him to start Week 1. I think Culpepper could do good enough this year to keep Stafford on the bench all season if he is given the chance and not on an ultra short leash. Unfortunately, I don’t get the sense the Lions’ management feels the same way. Most of the talking heads are still saying Stafford will be the No. 1 guy and the Lions saw enough out of him in the preseason. I must have been watching different games for the most part.

QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns - OK, I don’t get it? If you’re a head coach trying to pick between two rather mediocre-until-proven-otherwise quarterbacks and both have looked rather bland during the preseason, wouldn’t you let them duke it out in the preseason finale? I sure would. The Browns, however, took a different approach. Neither quarterback played in the final preseason game. What? Regardless of who wins the starting job (and I still feel it’s going to be Quinn), this situation is U-G-L-Y.

RB Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals – I’m not really down on Beanie, I just really don’t know what to think right now. He looked really strong two weeks ago, as I mentioned last week in this space, but this week he had just three carries for 11 yards. I really hoped Arizona would let him see significant time Thursday. It didn’t happen, so all we have to go with entering the season is basically two weeks of practice and one nice preseason showing. Oh, the things that keep me up at night are never ending…

RB Edgerrin James, Seattle Seahawks - Like Wells, I’m just not digging seeing so little of Edge. I want to see how much of a burst he still has. I want to see how fresh (or old) his legs may be. Two carries for 11 yards can’t show that. He is another big mystery to deal with entering the year.

WR Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – The final preseason game came and went and Diva Crabtree was no where to be found. He’s still holding out. At this point, fantasy players shouldn’t even give him a passing glance late in drafts. He isn’t worth the bother.

Random thoughts:

QB Rex Grossman, Houston Texans - Was I the only one to chuckle when Grossman was able to light-up a backup secondary? He went 9-of-16 for 197 yards and two touchdowns Friday night. Maybe the UFL should come calling if he doesn’t make the final roster with the Texans…

QB John David Booty, Minnesota Vikings – The original No. 4 in purple did a good impression of the new No. 4, as he threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. The real bad news was he was immediately taken out of the game. Never a good sign when you’re trying to make a team. He did return to action later.

RB Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - Johnson, in limited time, had five carries for 58 yards, including a long of 41. I drafted him recently as my RB3, which I kind of felt dirty about, but this gives me some extra hope. I think the Chiefs are going to play from behind a lot, and they might actually be worse than they were a year ago. Sigh.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants – His carries went up in each of the last three preseason games, but his yards went down in each, too. He had 31 yards rushing on nine carries (3.4 ypc) Thursday. The big difference may be his big-play ability was held in check. He had longs of 23- and 27-yards in the previous two games, respectively. I’m still digging Bradshaw this year as a strong No. 4 fantasy back that could push for more.

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England Patriots – Sure, it was against backups and he carried the load for the Pats’ running game, but I was still impressed with the 125 yards rushing and three scores. He also had four catches for 22 yards. He’s buried on the depth chart in New England, but it’s not like anyone ahead of him can be counted on as a sure thing at this point.

RB Aaron Brown, Detroit Lions - I mentioned him earlier this preseason. He has shown some big-play ability, and seems to just be a darn good football player. He had 11 carries for 56 yards in the final preseason game. In a best case situation, he’ll be the team’s No. 3 back. No fantasy value now, but keep your eye on him down the road.

RB Darius Walker, Denver Broncos – If he makes the final cut, Walker could see his number called in the next few weeks while rookie Knowshon Moreno (knee) works his way into game shape. He had 21 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown Thursday. Not a great yards per attempt (3.3), but it might soon be about healthy bodies for the Broncos. As I said, he still needs to make the final roster.

RB Kevin Jones, Chicago Bears – Oh, what might have been. I took him in the 20th round of a draft last week, so I probably double-dosed his curse. I feel bad for the guy at this point; he has shown serious talent but just cannot stay healthy. Say good-bye to Jones, as he is out for the year with an ankle injury.

RB Danny Woodhead, New York Jets - Woodhead, a fan and media favorite, rushed for 158 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries in the final preseason game. This does not mean he should be considered for your fantasy football draft. In a best case situation, he’s the team’s No. 4 running back – and that is if he makes the team.

Scott could be the No. 2 back in Cincy

RB Bernard Scott, Cincinnati Bengals - Scott averaged 8.6 yards per carry on five rushing attempts Thursday. He has turned heads during training camp and could take over as the team’s No. 2 back behind Cedric Benson this year. He’s working his way into handcuff territory, no doubt. Benson, by the way, actually rushed for 35 yards on just two carries Thursday. Running back DeDe Dorsey (13 carries, 68 yards) was also running hard.

FB Jerome Felton, Detroit Lions - Four carries, eight yards and one touchdown later, Felton could see goal line carries for the team this year. I’m not buying it, as I’m a big Kevin Smith fan this season, but Felton may be better suited for the short-yardage role.

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars – Sims-Walker, who is finally healthy, had four catches for 63 yards and a touchdown Thursday. That is exactly what the team was looking for out of him before he suffered a high ankle sprain. He feels he is cursed by the injury bug, and I can’t argue it. However, if he can stay healthy and keep producing when his number is called, I could see him emerging ahead of Troy Williamson again at some point this year. Williamson, by the way, had four catches for 35 yards and has taken over as the team’s No. 2 receiver.

WR Mario Manningham, New York Giants - The G-men are starved at receiver after clearing house at the end of last year. Manningham, a second-year pro, was believed to be on the bubble. A 74-yard performance on four catches may help change that. I loved this guy at Michigan, but he may still be on the outside looking in even if he makes the final cut. Sinorice Moss, also believed to be on the bubble, had two catches and both were touchdowns. Is it too late? We’ll find out soon.

WR Juaquin Iglesias, Chicago Bears – I’m not jumping on the bandwagon yet, but quarterback Jay Cutler is going to need some weapons to throw to. Iglesias, a rookie, had five catches for 72 yards Thursday.

That, ladies and gentlemen, wraps up another preseason. Thank you for reading my thoughts along the way, I hope some of them have helped you formulate your game plan entering this year. The real fun starts in a few days.

Did you see anything you liked, didn’t like or simply fell in love with during the preseason? Share your thoughts with me and other KFFLians below; we want to hear them!