Week 10: What is wrong with Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and the Green Bay Packers?

What’s wrong with the Green Bay Packers? From a fantasy perspective, there’s nothing wrong, though there is disappointment among fantasy owners of running back Ryan Grant and wide receiver Greg Jennings. The problem is from an NFL perspective and the team’s win-loss record of 4-4. Let’s take care of the fantasy problem first.

Grant, their No. 1 rusher, is averaging 20.6 touches, 93.1 offensive yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game this season – not too shabby. In his last four games he’s averaging 22.3-101.3-0.5. There’s a perception he’s underperforming, but those numbers show he may be coming around. Now he has to show he can consistently produce like that against better teams.

The other player disappointing owners, especially in non-point-per-reception leagues (non-PPR), is Jennings, who this season is averaging 4.38-63.1-0.25 with 7.50 targets per game. He has eight red zone plays on the year, which leads the team. He is playing slightly better in the last four with an average 6.00-66.3-0.25 with an average of 9.50 targets. Perhaps he and quarterback Aaron Rodgers are slowly getting it together? No one can argue that Jennings has been a huge disappointment, especially in a pass-first offense!

This A-Rod can't stay upright

The real problems are their 4-4 record and their offensive line woes. That should concern all fantasy owners of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his capacity to absorb a hit and ability to stay healthy! He leads the NFL in sacks with 37 and at this pace will
approach former Houston Texans quarterback David Carr’s record of 76 from 2002. That is brutal and why the Packers offensive line is in the news. As a team they are struggling and hit their lowest low in recent memory by losing to a winless Tampa Bay
Buccaneers unit that has seen more embarrassment in recent memory than I can remember. That includes watching the Bucs play in their early years!

This week head coach Mike McCarthy stated parts of the problems could be Rodgers holding on to the ball too long or the receivers not getting open. There could be truth to this, but Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, at times, holds on too long and pays the price – but wins.

When you look at Rodgers statistically, he’s averaging 21.0 completions, 281.9 yards and 2.00 touchdowns, which makes him one of the league’s best young quarterbacks. However, Rodgers’ 63.1 percent accuracy rate is nowhere hear Big Ben’s 70.6 rating. I’m willing to say that difference probably translates into a few key plays that contribute to wins for Roethlisberger, whereas Rodgers deals with losses. Rodgers can help improve the situation by getting rid of some balls earlier, allowing him to grow and mature into the position. While there is room for improvement this year, Rodgers’ best years are still ahead of him.

Another potential problem is their No. 1 back. Grant is not a natural pass receiver. Sure, that is no longer a prerequisite for the West Coast offense … but when you see what other backs are accomplishing – such as the Houston Texans‘ Steve Slaton, the  Philadelphia Eagles‘ Brian Westbrook and the Chicago Bears‘ Matt Forte (last year’s version) – you wonder about Grant’s lack of versatility. How much does that hurt this West Coast offense? Just last week I saw an easily catchable pass go in and out of his hands. A check down pass to a running back is just as good as a hand off in the West Coast philosophy and takes pressure off the quarterback. Grant is only seeing an average of 2.00 receptions per game this year, which tells me the team may not be using the check down pass as effectively as it could. Hell, the total number of sacks allowed proves that! This is a position the team is trying to work on by bringing in Ahman Green for his receiving skills (and special teams play), but long-term the team will need to address this. In Grant’s defense he is more than serviceable as a starter, especially if Green and Brandon Jackson can pick up the receiving slack.

Can Grant be a factor as a receiver?

Let’s not forget the tight end position, which has not flourished as well as many believe it should have since the days of Keith Jackson and Mark Chmura. Donald Lee is not the answer; while he’s serviceable, he does not stand out. Jermichael Finley (knee), talented but injury-prone, is following the same path of unfulfilled promise trailblazed by players such as Lee, Tory Humphrey, Bubba Franks, David Martin, Tyrone Davis and others. This position is also key to help take pressure off the quarterback. While some may argue these tight ends have been serviceable, in the end, a multidimensional tight end in a West Coast offense can take an offense to the next level.

Others also believe defense and special teams are the problem here, and I agree. However, I believe in defensive coordinator Dom Capers and his 3-4 defense, but he still does not have all the necessary players to fit the schemes. The defense will improve. Capers’ reputation and track record guarantee that.

I believe there is no excuse for special teams play contributing heavily to their losses. It’s unsatisfactory for any NFL team because there are base fundamentals on special teams that do not change from team to team. The team is so desperate it has the 32-year-old Green working special teams. In the end, fundamentals and focus will alleviate the problem, and those come from coaching and instilling discipline. Either this unit improves, or I’m sure special teams coach Shawn Slocum is gone after the season.

What about coaching? I like what McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson are doing. However, I do blame the front office for their offensive line woes, and while I view this season as the continuance toward building a Super Bowl team, I understand they’re not there yet. I’m willing to give this front office and coaching staff one more year after this one. However, the onus is on McCarthy to make the playoffs. Though this Packers squad may not be Super Bowl-ready, it’s good enough to be a playoff team. If they don’t make the playoffs, then McCarthy may not make it back next year, which would be wrong because it would set the team back two years at least.

In the end, I believe the offensive line is the key to the Packers’ success because you win in the trenches. You control the game by controlling the lanes and gaps while also protecting the quarterback. Right now, they can’t do any of that consistently. McCarthy believes the team’s problems are correctable through adjustments, and while there is technique that can be improved, in the end you either have the talent to keep your quarterback upright and the ability to open running lanes, or you don’t. Right now the Packers don’t, and thus their 4-4 record stands out. I don’t see a short-term fix for this season, so we owners of one Aaron Rodgers better hope he is as tough as his predecessor (without the need of Vicodin) and can remain healthy long enough to help us to a fantasy championship!

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