Don’t be fooled by poser defenses
If one looks hard enough, they will find anomalies in all fields of statistical research. Fantasy football is no different, above all when it comes to ranking players and reviewing fantasy matchups.
From time to time, fantasy owners take things for granted. It’s easy to get caught up, and it’s even easier to listen to fantasy services that, more often than not, don’t break down the numbers. Join me while I analyze a few defensive matchups this week whose surface appearance can be deceiving.
Note: The fantasy points used below are based on standard scoring formats (4 points per passing TD, 1 point per 20 passing yards, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per rushing/receiving touchdowns non-PPR).
Buffalo Bills against quarterbacks and wide receivers
In the past four weeks, the Bills have allowed a fantasy defensive team against (DTA) of 3.5 points per game. That is an unheard of, ultra-low figure. The high end of the spectrum this week is 35.67 (Titans), which is equally as insane. The average is 16.29 fantasy points allowed. The reason the Bills have a pseudo-strong DTA is because of their miserable run defense. They have given up an average 29.25 fantasy points per game over their past four games, a figure that ranks as the second most in the league during this time.
Teams don’t need to pass much because they are too busy pounding the rock against the Bills, so their pass defense numbers look amazingly strong.
Buffalo “boasts” a fictitious 8.00 DTA against the wide receiver position. Again, statistical inflation, or deflation in this case, that is based on ground success by running backs skews the numbers for wideouts.
Their past four opponents:
Week 4: Miami Dolphins
Week 5: Cleveland Browns
Week 6: New York Jets
Week 7: Carolina Panthers
Bea Arthur could have posted better fantasy stats through the air than these offenses are capable of.
Green Bay Packers versus quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers
The Packers’ defense ranks tied with the New Orleans Saints for second in the league on a per-game basis of fantasy points allowed to the position. Since Brett Favre lit them up for 271 yards and three touchdowns in Week 4, Green Bay has faced a Daunte Culpepper-led Detroit Lions team and the Derek Anderson-quarterbacked Cleveland Browns. The two “passers” combined – yes, COMBINED – for 147 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. Naturally, the numbers against receivers will be low, too.
Tough choice for fantasy leaguers
Favre may not be great again this week, but he shouldn’t fare as poorly as Green Bay’s recent opposition has.
Jamal Lewis and Kevin Smith didn’t receive enough touches to make a difference, but Smith was on pace for a respectable day (15 for 61 yards, 4.1 per carry).
Houston Texans versus running backs
Their DTA of 8.00 against running backs is halfway deceiving. The Texans have played the Oakland Raiders (Week 4), Arizona Cardinals (Week 5), Cincinnati Bengals (Week 6) and San Francisco 49ers (Week 7) in the past month.
The Raiders lost Darren McFadden (knee) before the game was in the books, but he ran six times for negative two yards prior to the injury. The Cardinals don’t know what running the football is, and the 49ers were down 21-0 with a somewhat limited Frank Gore (ankle) making his first start since a one-carry Week 3 appearance. The Bengals entered with Cedric Benson on a roll, but falling behind meant Cincy had to abandon the run in the fourth quarter, when Benson has shone the brightest this year. He was held to 2.8 yards per carry and one touchdown (16 for 44 yards).
The jury is still out on which version of the Texans’ run defense we will see each week. They are improved, but don’t consider them to be on their way to elite status just yet.
Philadelphia Eagles versus wide receivers
When you face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oakland Raiders and Washington Redskins in a row, you’re DTA against wideouts should be pretty low. The Eagles’ average 9.67 DTA is the second best in the league during the last month of play, but it is faker than one of Phil Spector’s hair pieces.
