LaDainian Tomlinson: 9 reasons to keep the faith
LT begins running past defenders this week!
Excuse me while I pick the crow feathers out of my teeth after saying during the preseason that LaDainian Tomlinson would be second in the league in rushing this year.
Actually, I predicted a lot of things that haven’t come true, but this one is bothering me the most.
The San Diego Chargers‘ running back has been a bust this year. There, Captain Obvious said it again. Injuries have cost him two games; he has just 140 yards rushing, and has found the end zone once. He has chipped in another five receptions for 30 yards.
Not too long ago, LT would post better numbers than that in one game… not need three combined.
However, I’m not jumping ship. I’m not giving up. I’m not trying to trade him. I’m definitely not going to release him. Here are nine reasons why:
1. Barring a season-ending injury, you cannot cut a first-round draft pick no matter how crappy his season is going.
2. Second, you’re not going to receive any trade value in dealing him right now. In fact, I recently traded FOR him.
3. Tomlinson rushed 18 times for 70 yards (3.9 ypc) against a tough Denver Broncos team in Week 6. He seemed to have some bounce in his step. He looked fresh. Even more important, he looked healthy.
4. The Chargers have one of the better passing games in the league, forcing defenses to account for receiver Vincent Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates at all times. This, in turn, will take pressure off of the running game. Teams cannot load an extra man in the box to shut down the Chargers’ running game. Tomlinson, for as much as it hurts to say it, isn’t scaring defensive coordinators right now anyway.
5. LT is a proud guy. Nobody – not even those of us that drafted him high in fantasy football leagues – is more irritated with his lack of production than he is. Don’t underestimate pride.
6. Outside of the blowout at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers when he saw just seven carries, LT has averaged at least 3.9 yards per carry in his other two games. That’s better than the likes of Brandon Jacobs (3.6), Michael Turner (3.5), Steve Slaton (3.0) and many others. The big difference is LT hasn’t seen nearly the touches they have so far, mostly due to missing a few games.
7. Tomlinson, despite the fact Darren Sproles is an electrifying receiver out of the backfield, is still catching passes – he has five in three games. Not a lot, but in PPR leagues every point counts.
8. The Chargers, predicted by many to blow out the rest of the AFC West this year, are notorious for starting slow. It seems like they need to have their back firmly against the wall before they start playing solid football. At 2-3, you can’t get off to much slower of a start. The onslaught from their offense is coming…
9. The upcoming San Diego schedule isn’t too bad:
|
Wk
|
Team | G |
Run Att
|
Run Yds
|
Run TD
|
Rec
|
Rec Yds
|
Rec TD
|
|
7
|
KC | 4 |
23.3
|
124.8
|
0.5
|
2.75
|
14.5
|
0
|
|
8
|
OAK | 4 |
31.8
|
147
|
1
|
3.75
|
45.3
|
0.25
|
|
9
|
NYG | 4 |
22
|
67.5
|
1
|
3
|
12.8
|
0
|
|
10
|
PHI | 3 |
23.7
|
76
|
0
|
4.33
|
36.7
|
0
|
|
11
|
DEN | 4 |
22.8
|
79
|
0.25
|
6.75
|
59.3
|
0
|
|
12
|
KC | 4 |
23.3
|
124.8
|
0.5
|
2.75
|
14.5
|
0
|
|
13
|
CLE | 4 |
27.3
|
113
|
1
|
6.5
|
49.3
|
0
|
|
14
|
DAL | 3 |
20
|
75
|
0
|
6
|
53
|
0.33
|
|
15
|
CIN | 4 |
25.3
|
97.3
|
0
|
6.75
|
68
|
0.75
|
|
16
|
TEN | 4 |
23
|
103.3
|
0.75
|
6.5
|
44.5
|
0.25
|
|
17
|
WAS | 4 |
28.3
|
95
|
0.5
|
4.5
|
27.3
|
0
|
* Statistics represent yardage allowed to opposing backs over the last four weeks.
Over the next 11 games, I project Tomlinson to rush for at least 850 yards, five to seven touchdowns, have 25 receptions, 200 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.
Those numbers would put him on pace for an average of 95 total yards per game.
Too optimistic? Possibly. Too ambitious? Doubt it. Reachable? Definitely!
Seven of his next 11 opponents are allowing at least 90 yards a game rushing. Seven of the 11 are also allowing at least 35 yards receiving. Four of them are giving up at least 100 yards on the ground to backs.
He’s no longer a RB1. That’s clear, but I’m not ready to say he’s fallen all of the way to a RB3 or lower. Tomlinson can be, however, a solid RB2 down the stretch and possibly a borderline No. 1 back during a few of the matchups (Kansas City two times, Oakland, Cleveland, and Tennessee).
Don’t jump ship, there is a lot more to come from Tomlinson the rest of the season.
If not, I’ll be having seconds on that crow.
KFFLians think:
The thing that worries me is Norv Turner’s play calling. He took LT out on 3rd and goal then ran it with Sproles. LT may have a lot of confidence left in himself, but Coach Turner doesn’t. LT is also not getting much action in the passing game- another area where Sproles is stealing touches. During Steve Slaton’s slow start I offered a rival owner a swap for LT, he turned it down. There’s no way I’d make that offer today. It’s not that I think LT is a goner but he’s no longer a featured guy. Until he gets the touches we’ll never know what he has left.
I think you still got some feathers in your mouth. Yeah, he looked like he had some bounce in his step in Week 6 and 7, but the things that made LT are gone. He can no longer make a defender miss one-on-one, he has lost separation speed and his nose for the end zone…all but gone. I think I counted 6 failed red zone carries yesterday for LT, 5 from inside the 5, 2 or 3 from the 1.
If you’re still buying on LT, have I got a sweet Leon Washington deal for you as well.
The main problem is the Charger’s offensive line CAN NOT run block and no one is talking about it. San Diego is ranked 31st in rushing. Almost dead last. It doesn’t matter if Sproles or LT is carrying the ball. Watch any of San Diego’s games this year and keep a close eye on the offensive line. The most success San Diego has had is when they pass to Sproles on the edges. But now defenses are starting to key on that, keeping Sproles more contained. The only thing the offensive line is doing well is pass blocking.