Why the Angels will beat the Red Sox in ‘09

As a Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim fan I must say I have always dreaded a matchup with the Boston Red Sox in the postseason, and I think I have a legitimate reason to: The Sox have beaten us when it matters three out of the last five years, including sweeps in 2004 and 2007.

Putting the past in the past, I am actually looking forward to this year’s postseason matchup between the two familiar foes. I firmly believe the Angels will buck the trend and send the Red Sox packing in October.

Here are five reasons why the Halos WILL beat Boston in 2009:

1) Vladimir Guerrero

Yes, he has struggled in his playoff career, hitting just .240 with one home run and seven RBIs in 20 games. However, he did show improvement last year against the Sox, batting .467 with four walks.

The key in 2009 is the lineup around him: Juan Rivera, Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales, Bobby Abreu and Mike Napoli all provide alternate sources of power and production in the order. In clutch situations, Red Sox pitchers will no longer be able to pitch around Vladdy to get to, say, Garret Anderson or Gary Matthews Jr.

Vlad will have more help in '09

With a more balanced lineup – nine of their 10 hitters with the majority of plate appearances hit between .287 and .312 – Guerrero will not be forced to shoulder the load.

2) The Red Sox are limping into playoff baseball this year.

Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie and Rocco Baldelli round out the list of walking wounded.

Beckett’s back spasms forced him to be pushed back to Game 2 of the series, and all three of their candidates at shortstop are banged up. Heading into the postseason with this many injury concerns can never be a good thing.

3) The Angels will run, run and run some more.

They amassed 148 stolen bases this year, which was good enough for third in the majors.

On the flip side, Red Sox catchers had a little trouble keeping their opponents from running wild on the base paths. Victor Martinez threw out just nine of 55 attempted base stealers in 2009 for a caught-stealing percentage of .138. Jason Varitek caught just 16 of 124 attempted base stealers for a percentage of .129.

To give you an idea of how this could play out, Chone Figgins, the team’s leader in stolen bases this season with 42, had a stolen-base percentage of 71.2. When the Angels set the table with their speedsters, don’t be surprised to see a lot of movement on the base paths.

4) Beckett

Sure he has been solid in his postseason career, minus his 8.79 ERA a year ago. His 17-6 record this year can be very deceiving. His 91 earned runs allowed this year were the second highest total in his career and his walk total (55) was the highest since 2006.

On top of that, Beckett has thrown a career-high 212 1/3 innings this year. Not much of a surprise now that he is dealing with back spasms. I see him repeating his numbers from the 2008 postseason rather than mirroring his dominant self in 2003 and 2007.

5) Abreu

The one variable in this whole equation is Abreu. He was not around for the past defeats at the hands of Boston in the playoffs.

There is no question that he makes the Halos a more dynamic team on offense: The club set a franchise record with 883 runs scored and led the majors by hitting .285 and with runners in scoring position at .295.

Abreu’s patience at the plate has also worn off on his teammates: The club’s on-base percentage (.350) is a team best in the past eight years, including their World Series run in 2002. Their walk total (547) is 40 more than their next highest total in the last eight years.

Combine all this with the Angels’ success on the bases this year – they also led the majors in going first to third on singles (119) – and the Angels could be saying, Wow! Did we finally beat the Sox in the playoffs?

Eliminating the Yanks this year could be a different story, though…