Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte is overvalued!

I must say, it was a wonderful Fourth of July and I hope everyone not only enjoyed it but partied late into the evening and partied safely. The weather was gorgeous here in beautiful San Diego, but I live in the country, and the temperature was a little warmer than I would have liked. You can’t win them all.

We’re getting closer to the beginning of the season, and more and more drafts are happening. My staff, as always, is taking part in many of them, officially representing KFFL. As a private citizen, I’ve taken it upon myself to sign up for the NFFC and the WCOFF high-stakes leagues again this year.

I’m on a mission this year. The better half is never happy if I’m not in the top portion of any ranking of any contests I play in. Simply put, she views it as a waste of our money. I guess I can’t blame her! In response to that, I’ve finally begun to dig into the numbers and will have some projections soon enough.

Don’t forget to check out KFFL’s projections as they’re solid as well, and if you have questions about or issues with them, let them know. I always have enjoyed reading feedback on projections because it makes you think. In fact, I believe that is how projections can improve. You can never improve a service when someone is always complimenting the organization. You improve when someone gives you feedback and questions what you’re doing.

Enough of that! In reviewing e-mails I’ve seen since getting back, I came across one asking the following question:

• Who is the most overvalued player so far?

The original word was “overrated,” but I hate that word. I would rather use the word “overvalued.” In response to that question, I think Matt Forte is overvalued this year. He’s a nice back, but many of us who saw him play last season would not say he’s a top-tier, stud running back. I think players who are taking him at his average draft position (ADP) will regret it at season’s end when he’s compared with other running backs.

Is any first-round fantasy football player more overvalued than Matt Forte?

In looking at Mock Draft Central’s ADP, right now he’s going 2.41 overall in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues and 2.50 in NFL performance (non-PPR) leagues. The high and low in PPR leagues are No. 1 and No. 4, respectively. In non-PPR leagues, they’re No. 1 and No. 5.

I have no issues with Forte and actually am a big fan. I love it when players without superstar talent excel and show they not only can play with the big boys but excel as well. He is that type of player. He is fundamentally sound and maximizes his talent. Sadly, I thought last season may eventually be seen as one of his best.

This year, I have concerns based on where he’s going – not on what he can do. I see newly acquired quarterback Jay Cutler not doing as many checkdown passes as Kyle Orton did. If you watched them play last year, you would know the team put Orton in that position because they were conservative with him and did not want to go downfield as much. That created much wear and tear with Forte as well. This raises the question of whether he was overworked last year and if it will affect him this year. He’s young, so many will say no, but until we see him play this year, we won’t know for sure. I would err on the side of caution.

I look for the team to open it up more and for the receivers and tight ends to see a jump in their receptions. That will come at the expense of Forte. His defenders will say, with Cutler behind center, defenses will not stack the box. While that may be true, I don’t see that theory as being valid enough to take him No. 1 overall or even in the top three to five. I won’t dispute that he is a middle- to late-first-round pick, but he’s not the overall No. 1.

The KFFL team stated it best when they pointed out that he failed to rush for more than 70 yards in seven different games. Also, his 100-plus yard games came against some weak teams last season. Specifically, they were the Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams.

If I have a high first-round pick, I’m trading down because he’s not the only player going high that I question this year. I haven’t seen so many first-round question marks in all my years of playing; I’m not kidding when I say that. This year’s first-round picks will have a lot of say in who wins their championships. That is, anyone from the top pick to the No. 12 pick could wind up the league’s best fantasy player!

Let me know your thoughts, and if you disagree, why? If you agree, who do you see as No. 2? I assume Adrian Peterson is this year’s top pick.

As always, if you’re looking for breaking news updates that get to you faster than e-mail, follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.