Fixing the Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves might make history tonight. When was the last time any team – in any sport – had four first-round picks? I can think of only two examples: In 2000, the New York Jets drafted defensive ends Shaun Ellis (No. 12 overall) and John Abraham (No. 13), quarterback Chad Pennington (No. 18) and tight end Anthony Becht (No. 27). More recently – and more relevantly – in 2006, the Portland Trail Blazers selected forward LaMarcus Aldridge (No. 2), guards Brandon Roy (No. 6) and Sergio Rodriguez (No. 27) and center Joel Freeland (No. 30).

When the Blazers made these picks, they were coming off a league-worst 21-61 campaign. In the next three seasons, they finished 32-50, 41-41 and 54-28. Aldridge and Roy have become franchise cornerstones, a post-perimeter combo to be reckoned with. The Wolves, for their part, already have their franchise big man. Center Al Jefferson (23.1 points per game, 11.0 rebounds) is every bit as good as Aldridge. Wolves forward Kevin Love (11.1 ppg, and 9.1 rbg as a rookie) is also a serious talent. In other words, the Wolves approach the 2009 draft with two interior pieces in place. Their challenge is simple: Can they find their perimeter savior, their Brandon Roy?

I don’t think so.

Conventional wisdom has the Wolves selecting either Memphis guard Tyreke Evans or Arizona State guard James Harden with the No. 5 pick. In my view, only the slashing, ultra-athletic Evans can reach Roy’s level – but first he needs to fix his erratic shooting (.274 from three-point land).

Besides, the Sacramento Kings are unlikely to pass on Evans at No. 4. In fact, it wouldn’t shock me if the Memphis Grizzlies select Evans at No. 2: Evans is a hometown kid, and neither Ricky Rubio nor Hasheem Thabeet has embraced a future with the Grizzlies.

As for Harden, his woeful 2009 NCAA tourney (19 points in two games on 3-for-18 shooting) left a poor taste in my mouth. He is a ball-dominator and a turnover machine (3.4 per game). NBA.com’s David Aldridge quoted one executive’s assessment:

“‘The biggest question with him,’ the Central executive says, ‘is if you watch every one of his scoring possessions, he needs the ball in his hands for a while. What will be an adjustment for him is that the two position in our league, they’re not going to give you 11 seconds to get your shot off. It’s not going to be built around you.’”

In the absence of a game-changer like Roy, whom should Minnesota draft? If I were new Wolves president David Kahn, the first three players I would select are: Syracuse point guard Jonny Flynn (No. 5), Davidson guard Stephen Curry (No. 6) and Pittsburgh small forward Sam Young (No. 18). All three can shoot from the perimeter, which is vital with Jefferson and Love on the inside.

Flynn would become the best point guard on the roster, which includes only a second-year prospect (Bobby Brown) and a former prodigy (Sebastian Telfair, still only 24 years old). At shooting guard, Curry would inherit the minutes of recently traded veterans Randy Foye and Mike Miller. His impact could be comparable to what Eric Gordon (16.1 ppg) did with the Los Angeles Clippers. Curry’s competition for playing time would be Corey Brewer, the Wolves’ first-round pick in 2007.

At small forward, Young would battle for minutes with Rodney Carney, who averaged 15.8 ppg in April once he became a starter. Veteran Ryan Gomes (13.3 ppg) is also in the picture. Still, Young is the most capable wing scorer of the three.

The Wolves also have the No. 28 pick. My choice there is Arizona State forward Jeff Pendergraph, a high-percentage shooter (.660) who is also a leaper and a banger. Standing 6-foot-10 and weighing 240, his size translates to NBA standards. Since he doesn’t need the ball, he would be an ideal backup for Love and Jefferson, as opposed to the vertically challenged Gomes and Craig Smith. The infusion of fresh blood at the position might also motivate former Duke star Sheldon Williams to fulfill a scintilla of his potential.

Pendergraph isn’t the only NBA-ready body available at No. 28. Michigan State center Goran Suton stands 6-foot-10, weighs 245 and can shoot the lights out. North Carolina guard Danny Green is a legit 6-foot-6, he plays defense and he has improved every season. If the NBA has room for players like Roger Mason and Bobby Simmons, it has room for Green.

Regardless of whom the Wolves select, they should remain mindful of the Blazers’ curve of improvement: from 21 wins to 32 in 2007, followed by 41 wins in 2008 and 54 last season. Yes, Brandon Roy was a large part of that, but so were players like Travis Outlaw (the No. 23 pick in 2003) and Rudy Fernandez (No. 24 in 2007).

The Wolves finished 24-58 last season, and they have not made the playoffs since 2004. If they play their cards right, their road back to the postseason will begin tonight.