In (mild) defense of Kevin Gregg

Kevin Gregg often makes things interesting during Chicago Cubs saves chances. He has taken his lumps since last season, when he lost his job as a Florida Marlin. His most recent gaffe has opened the floodgates again, with calls for Carlos Marmol or Jose Valverde or Randy Myers to take over closing duties.

A little more research would’ve calmed the nerves of the Wrigley Field (un)faithful.

For 2009, Gregg remains the Cubs’ best option to close games. There. I said it.

The numbers are lying

Sure, dominance is a key component to closing, and Gregg’s K ability will never rival that of Marmol, but Gregg’s decreased use of his fastball is actually playing to his strength.

The numbers tell a slightly more positive story for Kevin Gregg.

Knee problems surfaced in April, but Gregg pitched through them once his schedule was changed. Similar issues contributed to him losing his job last season down the stretch when the Marlins wanted to make room for Matt Lindstrom.

This year, Gregg has turned things slightly in his favor. Since his disastrous April (5.59 ERA in 9 2/3 frames of mostly non-save action), Gregg has given up at least one run in only four of his 24 appearances. It just so happens that they included blunders of four runs (an occurrence in which during which he didn’t record an out), two runs (a pair) and one single-tally botch.

Gregg has only walked two batters in the month of June. They came within the last three games.

Remember: For relief pitchers, ERAs can be magnified by a poor inning – or a zero-out trip to the mound.

Four of Gregg’s six homers allowed have come in non-save situations, but Piniella said Gregg needs to control the homer damage.

Anomalies: Gregg’s home runs-per-flyball percentage of 16.2 percent. Why would a normalization help? He sliced his flyball rate from 2007 (54.8 percent) to 2008 (35.4) and has kept it almost at a similar level this year (37.8).

Facts: In the two innings in which he blew saves, he gave up six runs. He gave up only two earned runs while shutting the door successfully. I’m not saying it isn’t that obvious numbers in blown saves are worse than save numbers, but it isn’t like he’s getting smacked around ALL the time.

His BABIP is also .297, so he isn’t benefiting much from luck.

Hesitation: His strand rate is 83.3 percent, a bunch above the league average of about 72 percent. It’s presumable that if his homer rate calms down, though, his improvement in the walks column may allow the fall toward the average to be a bit less bumpy.

Marmol

Manager Lou Piniella has taken to stability in his bullpen’s roles; he enjoys having Marmol in a setup job because the young righty can comfortably pitch more than one frame. That isn’t Gregg’s style.

Marmol, he of some of the most devastating stuff in baseball, strikes out a ton of guys, but he also has walked a ton. Marmol’s slider use has been in question this year; it hasn’t had the dip he has displayed with it since his emergence.

Marmol did well in picking up the slack of Kerry Wood last year but had control issues in that time, too.

Frankly, Angel Guzman (triceps) should be next in line to be closer before Marmol. Guzman’s conditioning has improved, allowing him to exert full effort. He has also been able to guide the ball along the dirt (51.2 percent groundballs) while employing an effective slider.

Closing statement

Since Gregg’s rate of homers allowed is fluky compared to recent seasons, it’s presumable that he can correct his problems by keeping the ball down, something which he has already excelled in doing since 2007.

While Marmol has been struggling to find his groove, Gregg has made ample strides in May and June. No one noticed except those who do research. The Cubs don’t NEED to make a trade if Marmol comes around and gives them better setup innings and Gregg keeps the ball down. An irregular homer rate hinders the perception of Gregg being able to close out games, though.

Now, I’m by no means saying Gregg ranks among the best stoppers in baseball. I think he’s a low-end option, at best.

This is more of a call for analysts and fans to pay more attention to a pitcher’s overall performance and the team’s bullpen setup instead of calling for the closer’s head.