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Fantasy football quarterback analysis
Quick Jump: Player Analysis
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
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Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | 6-foot-2, 220 pounds | 6th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 504 | 554 | 322 | 372 | 4030 | 4430 | 29 | 33 | 10 | 12 | 56 | 66 | 284 | 314 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 38 |
Pros: A 64.7 percent passer last year, Rodgers is accurate. He racked up an impressive 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns (28 the year before) through the air last season. On the ground, he is good for at least 200 yards and has scored a whopping nine total times the past two years. Rodgers is smart with the football, too, throwing only seven picks last year. Green Bay's offense has a pass-first mentality, and last year's leading fantasy scorer has a lot of weapons to work with. The Packers' offensive line improved as the season wore on, and they added depth at offensive tackle in rookie Bryan Bulaga. Even after taking a beating last year (50 sacks, 84 the past two seasons), A-Rod looks more like a Timex than the extra fragile player we witnessed earlier in his career. The Packers boast a respectable running game, as well, to keep defenders honest. Having two games against the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings' secondaries only helps his cause.
Cons: Even though Rodgers has been tough over his past 32 regular season starts, he still has taken a beating. Wide receiver Donald Driver, 35, is long in the tooth and could be ready for drop-off. The depth behind him is relatively unproven in an expanded role. The addition of big-bodied running back James Starks could mean Green Bay will try to run more near the end zone.
Fantasy tip: Rodgers is undoubtedly the top fantasy quarterback. His rushing prowess is a nice bonus. He is being drafted, on average, as the 10th player off the board. We question that figure, which is also a little too steep for our tastes, but you'll have to pay the price if you want him. We've seen him slide into the early fourth round, but he often goes in the late second round. Don't overvalue Rodgers, or the position for that matter, but be aware that his draft day buzz will be loud.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
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Drew Brees | New Orleans Saints | 6-foot, 209 pounds | 10th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 562 | 612 | 378 | 428 | 4373 | 4773 | 30 | 34 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 26 | -5 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 36 |
Pros: The star passer is coming off a career-best 70.6 completion percentage, which is downright nasty. He chucked 34 touchdown passes for the second year in a row. His 4,388 yards marked Brees' fourth straight season with at least 4,300, and he chipped in an uncharacteristic two touchdowns on the ground. Brees has never been one for being sacked - the 20 he took in '09 were his most as a Saint. In three of his four years leading the Saints, Brees has averaged at least 8.0 yards per attempt, illustrating in a virtually unprecedented way, at least in today's NFL, how vertical Sean Payton's offense really is. New Orleans has many dangerous weapons in their passing game, and Brees knows how to make the most of it. He is also a year removed from being only the second quarterback in league history to eclipse 5,000 passing yards. After throwing an interception every 36 attempts in 2007 and once every 37 throws in 2008, Brees protected the ball better by being picked off only every 46 passes last year. He threw 514 times last year, easily the lowest of his career as a Saint, 121 times less than the prior season; his efficiency increased drastically. He posted a 109.6 rating, the best of his career.
Cons: What is there really to say? He was better with less work last year! Brees fumbled a career-high 10 times last year, losing six. There is always the possibility of a Super Bowl hangover, and guess who is on the cover of the Madden 11 video game? Losing running back Mike Bell could put more pressure on Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, but now we're just being picky.
Fantasy tip: Brees may be as safe as they come among elite quarterbacks. His upside is probably capped at what we've seen from him already, but never say never. Expect much of the same. He's a second-round pick if you want to secure him.
Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
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Peyton Manning | Indianapolis Colts | 6-foot-5, 230 pounds | 13th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 0 | 25 | -25 | 25 | -200 | 200 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Pros: Coming off his best fantasy season since 2004, Manning set a career high in accuracy (68.8 percent) on his way to a 4,500-yard, 33-touchdown effort. You certainly can count on durability considering Manning's 192-game streak in the regular season. He topped 4,000 yards for the fourth straight campaign, and Manning hasn't thrown fewer than 27 touchdown passes in a season since 2001. The offensive staff returns intact, as does the core of the offensive line. No. 18 should enjoy the return of Anthony Gonzalez (knee), in addition to the services of Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie at wide receiver. Don't forget some dude named Dallas Clark manning the tight end position for, well, Manning. Peyton rarely takes a sack (10 last year) and hasn't lost a fumble in two seasons.
Cons: Manning is coming off neck surgery. While it sounds scary, he has said the injury has bothered him for the past four seasons. Nevertheless, keep an eye on his offseason progress. The Colts could emphasize the running game more with a healthy backfield of Donald Brown and Joseph Addai. Manning's 571 attempts were his most since 2002 (591), so expect that figure to come down some.
Fantasy tip: Until he shows us otherwise, we can't hold age (34) against Manning; there is no reason to believe he will be anything other than the fantasy stalwart we've come to know over the past decade or more. His average draft placement is the late second round or early third. If you can get him into the fourth, feel great about your pick. Once the top two quarterbacks come off the board, Manning is sure to follow soon after.
Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans
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Matt Schaub | Houston Texans | 6-foot-5, 240 pounds | 7th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 543 | 593 | 349 | 399 | 4295 | 4695 | 25 | 29 | 12 | 14 | 24 | 34 | 23 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 30 |
Pros: He finally stayed healthy! Schaub avoided the injury bug for 16 games and posted insane numbers: 4,770 passing yards, 29 touchdowns. He has one of the best receivers in the world on his side (Andre Johnson), and the supporting cast isn't too shabby. Houston's vertical West Coast system emphasizes going yard, as illustrated by Schaub's 8.1 yards-per-attempt average over the past two seasons. He is judicious with the football, and his accuracy is top-notch (67.9 percent last year). He completed at least 70.0 percent of his passes in nine games last year. One big reason he stayed healthy last year is a dramatic reduction in sacks taken (25 in 16 games, 23 in 11 the season before). The Texans' backfield is a mess on paper, and if nothing materializes, Schaub has shown he doesn't need much of a running game to put up big numbers.
Cons: Injuries. While he earned some respect last year, Schaub still has a long way to go before he can shed the injury-prone label after missing 10 games in his first two years with Houston. Tight end Owen Daniels (knee) went down in Week 8 with his third torn anterior cruciate ligament, and how he'll rebound is uncertain. Even though Schaub was serviceable after Daniels' injury, he wasn't explosive like we saw when Daniels was healthy. Schaub didn't have a three-TD day without the tight end in the lineup.
Fantasy tip: The biggest concern with Schaub is his durability. If he plays all 16, look out. If not, your fantasy season could be heading down the tubes. Make sure you back him up with a starting-caliber passer - you'll probably have to grab a second quarterback earlier than you'd like to. Schaub's late fourth-, early fifth-round average draft placement is fair considering the risk-reward factor involved. His days of being a sleeper are in the past, but be cautious of overzealous novice drafters ignoring Schaub's risks and drafting him where his statistical production suggests he should go.
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
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Tony Romo | Dallas Cowboys | 6-foot-2, 226 pounds | 8th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 533 | 583 | 335 | 385 | 4183 | 4583 | 29 | 33 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 34 | 107 | 137 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 35 |
Pros: Romo enters an age-30 season, and he's coming off a marvelous campaign after a down year in 2008. The Eastern Illinois product racked up a career-best 4,483 passing yards. His 27 total touchdowns mark the second highest total of his career (38 in 2007). The potential for a mid-30s TD output is there. Wide receiver Miles Austin broke out in a big way, giving him a 2007 Terrell Owens-like target. Romo is finally starting to show some slight progress with Roy Williams, and the 'slinger knows he can always count on tight end Jason Witten. Add prized rookie Dez Bryant to an already potent attack and we could see fireworks most every week. Romo tied three-way for the most 40-plus completions (17) last year. The Cowboys' ground game is formidable, regardless of the ball carrier. Romo threw the fewest picks of any single season last year (career high in attempts at 550). He's enough of a threat on the ground to give you a few bonus points each week, too.
Cons: Sometimes Romo just screws up. Every once in a while he makes a boneheaded play trying to do too much. You have to be willing to take the bad with the good. The release of veteran left tackle Flozell Adams leaves Doug Free as the starter, and he's relatively untested protecting Romo's blindside with just seven career regular season starts under his size 54 belt. Less daunting questions include: Was Austin a one-year wonder? Will Bryant have an impact as a rook? Will Romo's off-the-field celebrity status eventually land him in hot water?
Fantasy tip: It's tough not to like what Romo brings to the virtual table. He's gritty and has the tools fantasy owners look for in their No. 1. Draft him with confidence after the elite names come off the board, and it's arguable that Romo has already crept into this grouping. The mid-fourth round is where he tends to be drafted, on average. It's an acceptable placement, but you'd ideally like to get him in the mid- to late fifth. Don't count on being so fortunate since this year fantasy owners are gobbling up QBs like Cookie Monster at a Nabisco factory.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
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Tom Brady | New England Patriots | 6-foot-4, 225 pounds | 11th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 508 | 558 | 326 | 376 | 4029 | 4429 | 31 | 35 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 36 | 16 | 46 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 37 |
Pros: With the lack of buzz surrounding Brady, you'd think we were entering the 2001 season again. Brady's 2009 was a pleasant rebound year for the three-time Super Bowl champ. After completing all of seven passes in 2008, Brady reclaimed his place among the fantasy elite with a 4,398-yard, 28-touchdown effort. The Pats' offensive line should return intact. Wide receiver Randy Moss is in a contract year and is looking for his last big payday, so you can expect a motivated No. 81. Wide receiver Wes Welker (knee) underwent major knee reconstruction in January and is expected to be ready for Week 1. Brady has the talent, the tools, the drive and the track record of an elite quarterback.
Cons: A Welker injury setback could be a major problem for Brady. Spending so much time away from the Patriots' complex during the offseason workouts could leave Brady and his receivers playing chemistry catchup into the regular season. Pro Bowl left guard Logan Mankins, the bright spot in what has been a fairly shaky Patriots offensive line in recent seasons, is demanding a trade and is holding out.
Fantasy tip: Brady should be no worse than last season, which was pretty darn good. We could see a significant downturn, though, if Mankins is traded and Welker's knee costs him time. Brady has probably more risks around him than fantasy owners would like for a late third-round pick. Before his monster 2007 season, the former Michigan Wolverine was a borderline fantasy starter much of his career. Could he fall off that much in '10? Doubtful, but be aware that you may be getting a version closer to the pre-2007 Brady than the 50-touchdown guy.
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
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Philip Rivers | San Diego Chargers | 6-foot-5, 228 pounds | 7th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 496 | 546 | 316 | 366 | 4339 | 4739 | 28 | 32 | 11 | 13 | 24 | 34 | 40 | 70 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 33 |
Pros: Rivers has been a tough competitor in his four years as a full-time starter, not having missed a game. He has topped 65.0 percent passing each of the last two seasons, and his already impressive 8.4 yards-per-attempt average jumped to 8.8 last year. Rivers threw three touchdowns for every interception in '09, finishing the year with 28 scoring strikes; he chipped in one more on the ground. His quick release allows him to avoid sacks (25 each of the last two years). In an offense built for pushing the ball downfield, Rivers has excelled. His targets include All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates, wide receiver Vincent Jackson and a bevy of talented role players. San Diego theoretically improved their ground attack with their first-round pick of Ryan Mathews, who is also a capable receiver. He is the only quarterback in the league to post ratings of 100.0-plus each of the past two seasons and one of three to ever accomplish the feat (Peyton Manning, Steve Young).
Cons: Jackson is currently holding out, and his camp says the receiver is ready to let this linger into the regular season. To complicate matters even further, Jackson is suspended for at least the first three games of the year and may be traded. If the running game can't get going defenders could look to tee-off on Rivers - especially if left tackle Marcus McNeill continues to hold out. How will Mathews hold up in pass protection. Can relatively untested weapons pick up the slack?
Fantasy tip: His early fourth-round average draft placement is about right. There's little mystery with Rivers. He won't be overvalued or undervalued, and you'll have to pay to get him. Keep a close eye on the McNeill and Jackson holdouts, because they will directly impact Rivers' fantasy prospects.
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens
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Joe Flacco | Baltimore Ravens | 6-foot-6, 235 pounds | 3rd year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 485 | 535 | 298 | 348 | 3596 | 3996 | 25 | 29 | 10 | 12 | 33 | 43 | 57 | 87 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 31 |
Pros: Substantial gains from 2008 to 2009 place this third-year passer in a great position to break out in a big way. Flacco has a Howitzer for an arm, and Baltimore's offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron, loves to take well-timed shots downfield. The acquisition of No. 1 receiver Anquan Boldin gives Flacco another strong receiving target. Veteran Derrick Mason returns, and Mark Clayton remains in the mix. Running back Ray Rice gives Flacco a great safety valve, as does tight end Todd Heap. Weapons abound! Expect the Ravens to open up the offense; they have full trust in this third-year passer.
Cons: Boldin, Clayton and Donte' Stallworth have extensive histories of being injured; in fact, Stallworth (foot) will miss six to eight weeks with a fractured foot. Mason is 36 years old. Even with an opened up passing game, they'll remain committed to being balanced. Baltimore plays in a tough division with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals having improved their already-formidable pass defenses.
Fantasy tip: Flacco has sleeper written all over him. We expect a breakout season, and fantasy owners can get their hands on him for an eighth-round pick, on average. Expecting 3,800-plus yards and 25-plus touchdowns is realistic; going out on a limb, Flacco could produce 4,000-plus yards and at least 30 scores if everything falls into place. While we're confident in our projections for this Audubon, N.J. native (ironic, huh?), cover your bases with a starting-caliber No. 2 quarterback.
Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
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Jay Cutler | Chicago Bears | 6-foot-3, 233 pounds | 5th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 483 | 533 | 293 | 343 | 3451 | 3851 | 25 | 29 | 14 | 16 | 41 | 51 | 169 | 199 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 31 |
Pros: The big-armed gunner sliced through the cold wind of Chicago for 27 touchdown strikes in his first season as a Bear. After a full year of gaining chemistry with his developing receiving corps, Cutler could shine this season. A quality running game led by Matt Forte and Chester Taylor provide him adequate protection. The Bears hired Mike Martz to be their offensive coordinator, and he has a track record of producing fantasy-worth passing attacks.
Cons: Cutler was never terribly accurate (61.9 percent passer) and has relied too much on his cannon. It gets him in trouble (see 26 picks last year, 18 in '08). Chicago hasn't upgraded their offensive line (35 sacks last year - mediocre), unless they believe that continuity will do the trick. Regardless of Martz's presence, the Bears will establish the running game. Martz's past quarterbacks, sans Kurt Warner, were generally turnover machines. There isn't much of an emphasis on ball security. Cold weather will alter game plans. Even though some of Chicago's wideouts could emerge as hidden gems, they're largely unknowns at this point.
Fantasy tip: Being drafted at the end of the sixth and early seventh rounds makes Cutler overvalued. He has more risks than potential rewards at this point. We're generally considering him as a low-end No. 1 or a top backup, and you'll never be able to land him cheap enough to make the latter happen. Let someone else take the chance at his current asking price.
Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings
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Brett Favre | Minnesota Vikings | 6-foot-2, 222 pounds | 20th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Pros: BOOM! Just like that, Favre is a fantasy star again. Where do we start ... durability and toughness top the list. Favre, who knows the offense like the back of his hand, fits the Vikings' system like peas and carrots. He is coming off his first 4,200-yard season since 1998. Favre's 33 touchdowns to seven interceptions is the best ratio of his career, and the gunslinger fumbled only twice - the lowest of his illustrious career. His 107.2 quarterback rating was easily the best of his career (99.5 in 1995), and it ranked second behind Drew Brees' 109.6 last year. The Vikings boast a powerful running game, a respectable offensive line and a talented receiving corps.
Cons: Favre turns 41 years old Oct. 10. Even though he has defied established rule to this point, one has to wonder how much longer he can keep it up. The Vikings could look to rein him in a bit in 2010, just to ensure he's healthy for a playoff run. Favre's ankle took a beating in the NFC Championship game, and he needed surgery to clean up scar tissue from bone spurs. He came back strong from surgery on his throwing shoulder last year, so we have to give him the benefit of the doubt, but mobility is a must for a to-be 41-year-old passer. His favorite target in 2009, wide receiver Sidney Rice (hip), will miss at least the first six games of the year following surgery.
Fantasy tip: The only grandfather in the NFL (literally), Favre is being drafted, on average, in the middle of the seventh round. We're comfortable with that, but you best secure a competent backup shortly after opting for Father Time himself. He is a low-end No. 1 or a strong No. 2 fantasy choice.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
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Matt Ryan | Atlanta Falcons | 6-foot-4, 213 pounds | 3rd year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 536 | 586 | 327 | 377 | 3848 | 4248 | 26 | 30 | 11 | 13 | 35 | 45 | 73 | 103 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 32 |
Pros: In Ryan's rookie year, he threw a touchdown pass every 16.6 completions; Year 2 saw much improvement, as he found the end zone every 12.0 completions. A toe injury held back Ryan last year, and in some ways stunted his short-term growth. Atlanta's offensive line is respectable, and Ryan hasn't been sacked more than 19 times in a season yet. He has a quality ground game to rely on. The Falcons boast standout receiver Roddy White, Ryan's favorite target, and veteran All-Pro tight end Tony Gonzalez. Ryan is fully recovered from last year's toe injury, and he is already looking for ways to improve the offense. One way has been emphasizing more deep passing plays in practice, likely an effort to increase his lowly 6.5 yards-per-attempt average of last season.
Cons: Atlanta remains a run-first offense, so it's unlikely Ryan will have a huge season. There is a little concern with his toe, just because such an injury is easily aggravated. His interception rate needs to improve. In 2008, the former Boston College star threw a pick every 34.5 pass attempts, whereas last year it was once per 32.2 passes. This possibly can be chalked up to the injury, though. Not a running threat, Ryan isn't going to give you much in the way of bonus points, and he needs to improve his career 59.7 percent completion rate.
Fantasy tip: He is being drafted, on average, in the seventh round. That's a bit earlier of a pick than we'd like to commit to Ryan. If you can get him in the eighth or later, take the plunge. If anything, he may be slightly overvalued heading into 2010. He'll need to prove he's over the injury and is ready to take the next step. We're not saying he doesn't have a chance to make the leap to the next level of fantasy passers; Atlanta's offensive system will probably hold him back just enough to prevent a true breakout season. He is a low-end No. 1 best drafted as a top fantasy backup.
Kevin Kolb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
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Kevin Kolb | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-foot-3, 218 pounds | 4th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 519 | 569 | 313 | 363 | 3685 | 4085 | 21 | 25 | 14 | 16 | 28 | 38 | 94 | 124 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 27 |
Pros: In his only two starts last season, Kolb threw for an average of 359 yards and two touchdowns per game. He completed 64.7 percent of his passes and chipped in a rushing touchdown. He may be green, but Kolb has three years of experience in this system and learned behind Donovan McNabb. The Eagles boast a pass-happy system and are very trusting in Kolb's abilities. They sport a dynamic cast of playmakers and have a respectable offensive line.
Cons: Prior to two big games last year, Kolb has been decidedly subpar in limited work. Interceptions may be a problem for Kolb in his age-26 season. He has thrown a pick every 18.8 attempts as a pro, including three last year in 96 attempts. The pressure of replacing McNabb will be great. He is not much of a running threat, having carried the ball 21 times for negative one yard in his short body of work.
Fantasy tip: The upside here is tremendous, but there is also a lot of concern for a letdown. Philadelphia is in a bit of a transition, and Kolb will have to be the leader of this squad. Fantasy owners are drafting him, on average, as the 10th passer off the board, in the mid-seventh round. If you make him your No. 1, be sure to back him up with a proven quarterback that you can live with as your starter.
Donovan McNabb, QB, Washington Redskins
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Donovan McNabb | Washington Redskins | 6-foot-3, 240 pounds | 12th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 499 | 549 | 288 | 338 | 3498 | 3898 | 17 | 21 | 12 | 14 | 31 | 41 | 147 | 177 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
Pros: Washington improved their offensive line with the acquisition of tackle Jammal Brown (Saints), signing of left guard Derrick Dockery and their first-round selection of left tackle Trent Williams. Head coach Mike Shanahan's system, run by his son Kyle, plays into the strengths of McNabb's game. Expect a lot of short passing with regular shots downfield. The Redskins' receiving corps is talented. Santana Moss could be McNabb's DeSean Jackson. A veteran backfield should help keep McNabb upright in pass-protection situations - Clinton Portis is one of the best in the biz at this. McNabb is very careful with the ball, too, having thrown no more than 13 interceptions in a single season throughout his career (2000).
Cons: You're probably not going to get monster stats from McNabb. He has never thrown for 4,000 yards, and he has only topped 30 touchdowns once in his career. The additions of Brown and Williams look good on paper, but the Redskins still have a rookie protecting McNabb's blindside. Williams is coming off an injury-plagued 2009 season. The 'Skins play in a tough division, and McNabb has a lot of pressure on him to perform at a high level.
Fantasy tip: Going in the early ninth round, McNabb is a bit undervalued. He's a midrange No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but you can get him at the price of a top backup. Don't expect the world from him, but few proven, serviceable options generally remain at this stage of your draft.
Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
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Carson Palmer | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-foot-5, 235 pounds | 8th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 0 | 25 | -25 | 25 | -200 | 200 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Pros: The USC luminary played a full slate of games in 2009 after missing all but four in the '08 season. Palmer has a strong supporting cast and a promising offensive line. A trip down memory lane brings us back to the 2006 and 2007 seasons when Palmer was a 4,000-yard passer. He ran in three touchdowns last year, a career high. Offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski has had powerful passing games in the past; the additions of wide receiver Terrell Owens suggests the Bengals may be looking to return to that style of offense.
Cons: Until we see an actual change, we have to believe Cincy is going to run a balanced, if not run-first, offense in 2010. Palmer threw only 466 times last year, completing just 60.5 percent of his passes. He has never been one to avoid interceptions. Palmer's 6.6 yards-per-attempt average was the lowest of his career in seasons that he started every game.
Fantasy tip: There is upside here. Palmer is even somewhat of a sleeper. He should be better than last year, but don't count on his pre-2008 stats. Fantasy owners are drafting him in the 10th round, which is a fair placement, for a top backup. He will probably start going earlier with TO as one of his targets.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
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Eli Manning | New York Giants | 6-foot-4, 225 pounds | 7th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 499 | 549 | 303 | 353 | 3779 | 4179 | 25 | 29 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 28 | 36 | 66 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 30 |
Pros: The younger Manning brother is coming off his best statistical season as an NFL quarterback. He threw for a career-high 4,021 yards and 27 touchdowns. Manning's average per attempt increased to a strong 7.9. He discovered a hidden gem in wide receiver Steve E. Smith, while rookie wideout Hakeem Nicks showed great promise in his first season. The Giants have a formidable running attack to rely on to help keep defenders sincere.
Cons: Manning was called on to lead through the air after the running game failed for much of the season. As long as the ground game works well, head coach Tom Coughlin would prefer to employ a run-first attack. In seven games, Manning failed to throw more than one touchdown pass, and he was blanked twice. In six games, he didn't pass for more than 222 yards. The signal caller was sacked 30 times, the most of any season in his career, and the Giants' offensive line is getting a bit long in the tooth.
Fantasy tip: Did we see Eli emerge as a legitimate No. 1 fantasy quarterback last year? We're not ready to go that far. He was a pleasant surprise at times, but inconsistency and a wealth of other quarterbacks in better situations make him a borderline No. 1. He is ideally a top fantasy backup, but you should look to draft him around the mid-eighth round if you want him. Anything earlier is a reach.
David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
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David Garrard | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-foot-2, 220 pounds | 6th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Pros: First of all, Garrard has remained healthy for two straight seasons. The Jaguars' defense has forced him to pass more in those two years than the coaching staff would have liked. He has thrown for at least 3,597 yards these two years. Garrard is a mild rushing threat, having scored five times on the ground in his last 32 contests.
Cons: Jacksonville has a suspect cast of receivers and a power-running offense. Garrard hasn't thrown for more than 15 touchdown passes in the past two years, and his career best is 18 in 2007. He takes too many sacks (84 the past two years) and fumbled a ridiculous 14 times (eight lost) in '09.
Fantasy tip: Upside and Garrard will not be used in the same sentence. He is probably playing for his job early in the season, so if the Jags get off to a slow start, the East Carolina product could find his way to the pine. Garrard is a stable No. 2 quarterback if you own a Peyton Manning or Drew Brees type. His average draft placement, though suggests he is being undervalued on draft day. He is being drafted in the 18th round, on average.
Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
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Kyle Orton | Denver Broncos | 6-foot-4, 225 pounds | 6th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 497 | 547 | 296 | 346 | 3582 | 3982 | 18 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 32 | 77 | 107 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 24 |
Pros: The sixth-year Purdue product is coming off a 3,802-yard, 21-touchdown, 12-interception season in his first year as the Broncos' starter. He set a career high in yards-per-attempt average (7.0), touchdown passes (21), completion percentage (62.1) and quarterback rating (86.8). Head coach Josh McDaniels' offense is quarterback-friendly, and he has praised Orton's knowledge of the complex system.
Cons: Orton lost his top target, wide receiver Brandon Marshall in a trade to the Miami Dolphins. Denver's receiving corps is largely unproven or consists of journeymen. The Broncos also sent their top tight end, Tony Scheffler, to the Detroit Lions. Left tackle Ryan Clady (knee) tore his left patella tendon, but he hopes to be ready to start Week 1.
Fantasy tip: In fantasy drafts, Orton is being selected in the 12th round as a backup. With the risk involved for a letdown year, fantasy owners shouldn't overvalue Orton based on last season's respectable display.
Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans
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Vince Young | Tennessee Titans | 6-foot-5, 233 pounds | 5th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Pros: Young set a personal best last year in average yards per attempt (7.3), and the 2009 season marked his first with a positive touchdown-to-interception ration (10 TDs, seven INTs). He was sacked only nine times and chipped in two rushing scores. Entering the 2010 season as the full-time starter, Young brings rare athleticism to the position. He is improving as a passer and has the wheels to elude defenders.
Cons: The Titans feature a run-first offense, led by 2,000-yard back Chris Johnson. Young is a career 57.6 percent passer; he has not thrown for more than 2,546 yards in a season, and his career-best 12 passing touchdowns came as a rookie in 2006. Injuries have plagued the former Texas star, and he's possibly facing a suspension for an offseason assault charge. Tennessee has a cast of talented but unproven receivers.
Fantasy tip: Young is a distance from becoming a legitimate fantasy starter. He is being drafted in the 12th round, on average, and makes for a reasonable backup if you own an elite quarterback. Expect to struggle should you be forced to start Young for any sizeable amount of time. His upside is limited in the short term; there is still hope for future growth in deep keeper formats.
Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Matt Cassel | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-foot-4, 230 pounds | 6th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 500 | 550 | 297 | 347 | 3369 | 3769 | 25 | 29 | 12 | 14 | 39 | 49 | 148 | 178 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 31 |
Pros: Cassel has shown to be able at times like Week 11 last year when he had 248 passing yards and two scores against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year as a whole was probably a poor gauge of his potential. The Chiefs hired Charlie Weis as their offensive coordinator and drafted wide receiver Dexter McCluster to help in the slot. Kansas City also selected tight end Tony Moeaki, who could see meaningful time down the stretch. KC upgraded their offensive line depth, too. Cassel contributed six multi-touchdown efforts in 2009.
Cons: The Chiefs don't have a lot of playmakers in their offense, and now everyone has to learn effectively a new system. Cassel has a lot of pressure on him. In nine games last season, he failed to pass for more than one touchdown and was shutout in five matches. KC's offensive line is still working on continuity, and Cassel was sacked 42 times last year. Fumbling 14 times (three lost) is a bit alarming. His skill set doesn't suggest he'll ever be a top-flight passer.
Fantasy tip: With an ADP of the early 16th round, Cassel is going as a low-end No. 2 or strong No. 3. Expect some improvement, but the chance of him blowing up is almost non-existent. Cassel isn't your man if you are seeking upside.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
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Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | 6-foot-3, 220 pounds | 2nd year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 497 | 547 | 299 | 349 | 3593 | 3993 | 24 | 28 | 12 | 14 | 22 | 32 | 82 | 112 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 31 |
Pros: Blessed with a rocket arm, Stafford has no shortage of confidence in his abilities. His gritty demonstration (shoulder injury) in a 38-37 shootout win versus the Cleveland Browns in Week 11 earned him some respect, as did his 422 passing yards and five touchdowns that game. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is a monster, and the Lions brought in Nate Burleson to give Stafford another target. Additionally, they traded for pass-catching tight end Tony Scheffler (Broncos). The Lions' offensive line improved slightly, and they bolstered their backfield with running back Jahvid Best, a pass catcher, in the draft. Stafford has a strong grasp of the Lions' system and, in fact, was even held back by the coaching staff last year.
Cons: In 10 starts last year, Stafford threw 20 interceptions, including six games with at least two. He isn't much of a rushing threat, despite scoring twice on the ground in his abbreviated rookie season. The Lions would like to be a run-first team, if their defense would permit such. Shoulder and knee injuries have cost him time; he is expected to be ready for the season opener. Five of his 13 touchdowns came in one game.
Fantasy tip: Stafford has a lot of upside and makes for a risk-reward pick in the early late rounds. Your safest plan is to snag him to back up an elite passer. The former Georgia Bulldog is a mild sleeper candidate this year.
Jason Campbell, QB, Oakland Raiders
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Jason Campbell | Oakland Raiders | 6-foot-5, 230 pounds | 6th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 433 | 483 | 256 | 306 | 3006 | 3406 | 16 | 20 | 11 | 13 | 41 | 51 | 206 | 236 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 22 |
Pros: The Raiders traded for Campbell this offseason, and the veteran passer will be their starting quarterback; he has little competition behind him should he struggle early. Coming off a career season, the former Auburn Tiger passed for 3,618 yards and 20 touchdowns. Campbell completed 64.5 percent of his passes to go along with a personal-best 7.1 yards-per-attempt average. His completion percentage has improved for three straight seasons.
Cons: The Raiders don't have a lot of proven weapons in their offense. Oakland's offensive line isn't the greatest, either, and Campbell took 43 sacks behind a poor Washington Redskins' front five in 2009. Campbell has fumbled 33 times (lost 12) in the past three years. This is Campbell's third different system in three years and eight in 10 years dating back to high school.
Fantasy tip: If Campbell continues to pick up the offense quickly, the Raiders could have a good fit on their hands. He is a vertical passer, which is how Oakland loves to run their passing game. A lot needs to fall into place, though, so don't hold your breath. Campbell's upside makes him a sleeper candidate to a degree, but we fear the wide receiving corps may need another year of seasoning before he can be a reliable fantasy option. Consider him a backup in deep leagues; Campbell is drafted in the 18th round, on average.
Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks
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Matt Hasselbeck | Seattle Seahawks | 6-foot-4, 225 pounds | 12th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 480 | 530 | 283 | 333 | 3260 | 3660 | 18 | 22 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 30 | 75 | 105 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 24 |
Pros: The veteran passer has a new coaching staff, but offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates' system isn't particularly different than the West Coast offense Hasselbeck has spent his career under. Seattle improved their offensive line and added playmaker Golden Tate at wide receiver. This offense has several respectable targets in wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, fellow wideout Deion Branch and tight end John Carlson. In 2007, Hasselbeck passed for 3,966 yards and 28 touchdowns.
Cons: Staying healthy has been a big problem for the age-35 season quarterback. He has missed at least two games in three of the past four seasons and is coming off a notable back injury. Seattle is paying quarterback Charlie Whitehurst a lot of money to carry a clipboard, so if Hasselbeck struggles we could see the untested former San Diego Charger in the starting lineup.
Fantasy tip: Hasselbeck is going, on average, in the 18th round. He should keep his job as long as he is healthy and playing at a quality level. He's a bit of a sleeper candidate, but you shouldn't draft him as anything more than a weak No. 2 fantasy quarterback and if you have a proven starter.
Alex D. Smth, QB, San Francisco 49ers
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Alex D. Smith | San Francisco 49ers | 6-foot-4, 217 pounds | 6th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 460 | 510 | 268 | 318 | 3051 | 3451 | 18 | 22 | 13 | 15 | 31 | 41 | 89 | 119 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 23 |
Pros: Smith started 10 games last year and somewhat impressed. He set career highs in completion percentage (60.5), touchdown passes (18) and rating (81.5). The former Utah star finally threw more touchdowns than interceptions in a season and showed chemistry with tight end Vernon Davis. The Niners upgraded their offensive line, and wide receiver Michael Crabtree should be ready to take his game to a new level with a full offseason in camp. Smith has drawn praise for having a better grasp of the offense.
Cons: Injuries and ineffective play derailed Smith's career before the 2009 season. The 49ers make use of run-first system, and Smith's receiving targets aren't overwhelming anyone just yet. Smith's 6.3 yards-per-attempt average is very low, ranking tied multi-way for the seven worst in the league among qualifying passers (226 attempts). Physically speaking, Smith is just average.
Fantasy tip: On average, Smith is going in the late 17th round, which is fair considering his past struggles. Smith has upside and could open eyes this year; he is a mild sleeper. Ideally, land him as a No. 3 in deep leagues.
Chad Henne, QB, Miami Dolphins
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Chad Henne | Miami Dolphins | 6-foot-3, 230 pounds | 3rd year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 474 | 524 | 283 | 333 | 3039 | 3439 | 16 | 20 | 13 | 15 | 24 | 34 | 37 | 67 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 22 |
Pros: The Dolphins brought in wide receiver Brandon Marshall this offseason to be Henne's No. 1 receiver. In his first year as the starter (13 games), the former Michigan Wolverine threw for 2,878 yards and completed 60.8 percent of his passes - he wasn't great, but Henne showed enough to intrigue. Henne came on late in the year, throwing for at least 322 yards in three of his final five games.
Cons: Miami is a run-first team. Due to Marshall's hip surgery, he and Henne may be in the hole when it comes to building chemistry. Henne failed to throw more than one touchdown pass in 11 starts. He isn't a running threat (16 carries on the year). Miami doesn't have any proven big-play threats in their offense. Henne will still be learning the ropes of being an NFL starting quarterback in 2010, at least early on, so don't count on a big uptick in production.
Fantasy tip: According to his average draft placement, most owners drafting Henne must be expecting a big jump in his third year. Going in the 14th round, on average, Henne comes at a fair price. Even though he has upside and true sleeper potential, you should wait until closer to the end of your draft before opting for the Dolphin given his likely growing pains.
Matt Moore, QB, Carolina Panthers
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Matt Moore | Carolina Panthers | 6-foot-3, 202 pounds | 4th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Pros: Entering his fourth year, Moore is the undisputed starter in Carolina. He posted a 4-1 record as a starter in the final five games of 2009; during this time, he threw eight touchdown passes to just one interception. While not known for his mobility, Moore still moves well in the pocket and was on pace for only 26 sacks last year. He won't have a lot of pressure on him in the Panthers' run-first system.
Cons: That run-based offense will also work against him. Moore probably won't throw enough passes on a weekly basis to be more than the occasional spot start. He has a very limited history as a starter, and two of his biggest games came against injury-depleted secondaries (Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants).
Fantasy tip: Moore should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 or a strong No. 3 fantasy passer. He has a fair amount of upside and could be a worthwhile start with the right matchup. If you have a rock-steady No. 1, consider Moore as a late-rounder while focusing on the core positions (RB-WR) when most owners are drafting their backup quarterbacks.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Ben Roethlisberger | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-foot-5, 241 pounds | 7th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 504 | 554 | 315 | 365 | 3875 | 4275 | 25 | 29 | 10 | 12 | 36 | 46 | 141 | 171 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 33 |
Pros: Big Ben has thrown for at least 3,150 yards in four straight seasons, capped off by a career-best 4,328 yards last season. He threw 32 touchdown passes in 2007 and 26 last year, the two highest single-season marks of his career. He has scored at least two rushing touchdowns every season since his 2004 rookie campaign, too. A 63.3 percent career passer, Roethlisberger has looked sharp this offseason.
Cons: Hovering over his head is a four- or six-game suspension, depending on an upcoming decision by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. Injuries have caused Roethlisberger to miss at least one game in every NFL season except 2008. For as good as he has been (2007, '09), Big Ben was pretty bad in 2008 and 2006. How will he handle coming back from the suspension? Will it affect chemistry? Wide receiver Santonio Holmes (Jets) was traded this offseason, and Pittsburgh plans to rely more on the run than they have in recent years.
Fantasy tip: If your No. 1 quarterback has a bye week while Roethlisberger is serving his suspension, you may be better off looking elsewhere. He is a quality No. 2, and we expect his suspension to be reduced to four games.
Low-tier quarterback analysis
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Low-tier quarterbacks
Matt Leinart | Arizona Cardinals | 6-foot-5, 232 pounds | 5th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Fantasy tip: Leinart's completion percentage was a career-best 66.2 in his 77 attempts last year, but he threw three picks to no touchdown passes. His noodle of an arm will limit the passing game (see his terrible 5.6 yards-per-attempt average last year). With wideout Anquan Boldin now a Baltimore Raven, Leinart lost one of his top targets. While Larry Fitzgerald remains, it probably won't be enough for the former USC star to make fantasy owners forget about Kurt Warner any time soon. We're not even sold on Leinart winning the starting job, but if he does, Leinart is a No. 3 fantasy quarterback with little upside in Arizona's new run-first system.
Trent Edwards | Buffalo Bills | 6-foot-4, 231 pounds | 4th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Fantasy tip: Edwards is running with the first-team offense, which should continue into the regular season. He has shown flashes at times, but we've also seen a lot of downside. Injuries have been his biggest enemy; Edwards has missed at least two games in each of his three pro seasons. Given the Bills' limited offensive weapons in the passing game, Edwards shouldn't be considered as anything more than a desperation No. 3 fantasy quarterback.
Jake Delhomme | Cleveland Browns | 6-foot-2, 215 pounds | 12th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Fantasy tip: It was the 2005 season when fantasy owners last considered Delhomme a reliable option. Since, he has been the definition of failure. Whether or not injury caused this meltdown, Delhomme enters a situation that doesn't instill confidence for a rebound year. He shouldn't be drafted in any league, but he could be worth a waiver wire acquisition if the stars align.
Josh Freeman | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-foot-6, 248 pounds | 2nd year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 460 | 510 | 279 | 329 | 3446 | 3846 | 22 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 73 | 83 | 367 | 397 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 29 |
Fantasy tip: In nine starts, Freeman, who has a fractured tip of his throwing thumb, looked every bit like the long-term project we expected him to be. He threw 10 touchdowns to 18 interceptions and fumbled 10 times (lost two). Count on seeing some growth in his second year. Even still, it doesn't figure to be enough to make him a fantasy-worthy commodity. Freeman is probably two to three years away from being a consistent contributor.
Sam Bradford | St. Louis Rams | 6-foot-4, 228 pounds | Rookie
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 556 | 606 | 333 | 383 | 3829 | 4229 | 20 | 24 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 31 | 73 | 103 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 26 |
Fantasy tip: The cerebral Oklahoma standout is coming off 2009 shoulder surgery. We've seen quarterbacks come back from this procedure before (Drew Brees). Bradford has to beat out 10-year veteran quarterback A.J. Feeley, which doesn't figure to be too much of a problem. The rookie's biggest hurdle may be learning an NFL passing system and executing it the way his coaches expect him to. His true value is in full-retention keeper formats; avoid Bradford in single-year setups.
Mark Sanchez | New York Jets | 6-foot-2, 225 pounds | 2nd year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 465 | 515 | 265 | 315 | 3177 | 3577 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 32 | 42 | 103 | 133 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 23 |
Fantasy tip: Despite a remarkable run in real life last year, virtual owners didn't exactly fall in love with Sanchez in 2009. He threw 20 interceptions to only 12 touchdown passes (15 starts). Offseason knee surgery cost Sanchez valuable time in minicamp, but he should be fine for Week 1. The Jets will pound the rock until the cows come home, and Sanchez will be asked to do just enough to win games. Game managers don't make for viable fantasy quarterbacks more than a few times per year. Sanchez is, at best, a weak No. 3 in deep fantasy leagues.
Ryan Fitzpatrick | Buffalo Bills | 6-foot-2, 225 pounds | 5th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 494 | 544 | 283 | 333 | 3351 | 3751 | 24 | 28 | 16 | 18 | 37 | 47 | 220 | 250 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 29 |
Fantasy tip: Unless - scratch that ... when - Trent Edwards winds up on the mend, expect to see Fitzpatrick. Edwards' injury history leads us to believe we'll see Fitz a few times in 2010. Either way, he has no fantasy value at this time.
Seneca Wallace | Cleveland Browns | 5-foot-11, 205 pounds | 8th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Fantasy tip: Wallace will see time in special packages and could start a few games if Jake Delhomme's recent injury-prone nature resurfaces. While efficient, Wallace isn't a fantasy force. Avoid him in all leagues.
Charlie Whitehurst | Seattle Seahawks | 6-foot-5, 225 pounds | 5th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 106 | 156 | 52 | 102 | 566 | 966 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 57 | 67 | 115 | 145 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
Fantasy tip: The Green Bay, Wis. native was paid a lot of money to compete with incumbent Matt Hasselbeck, but it doesn't look like he'll get that chance. Hass is the starter and has a stranglehold on the job. Meanwhile, Whitehurst has struggled mightily and could lose the No. 2 job to J.P. Losman. Whitehurst isn't a fantasy option at this time.
Michael Vick | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-foot, 215 pounds | 9th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 446 | 496 | 263 | 313 | 3403 | 3803 | 22 | 26 | 10 | 12 | 105 | 115 | 733 | 763 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 33 |
Fantasy tip: Vick, whose signature athleticism has returned, is expected to have a larger role in the offense this year. We don't know how durable Kevin Kolb will be, but that doesn't mean Vick is draftable. In standard formats, he isn't worth considering. In deep leagues (18 rostered players or more), Vick could be worth a final-round flier as your third quarterback. He's best left for the wire, though.
Tim Tebow | Denver Broncos | 6-foot-3, 245 pounds | Rookie
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 45 | 95 | 14 | 64 | 235 | 635 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 29 | 110 | 140 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
Fantasy tip: The highly touted rookie quarterback will be used in special scenarios, as long as the team remains in contention and starting quarterback Kyle Orton is effective. The moment Orton struggles, expect to hear calls for Tebow. That doesn't mean a switch will be made, at least not immediately. Tebow should be good for a few fantasy-worth games but isn't worth drafting in single-year formats. His 2010 value is found in full-retention drafts.
Byron Leftwich | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-foot-5, 250 pounds | 8th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Fantasy tip: Leftwich will likely fill in for suspended quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who will miss at least four and possibly six games. Leftwich has experience as a starter, but his extra slow release, coupled with Pittsburgh's porous offensive line, makes for a poor outlook. Leftwich isn't worth drafting in any format.
A.J. Feeley | St. Louis Rams | 6-foot-3, 220 pounds | 10th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Fantasy tip: Feeley is battling rookie Sam Bradford for the starting gig. The money St. Louis has committed to Bradford could force their hand. Feeley isn't much to contend with, anyway. Even if he wins the job, avoid Feeley in all formats.
Derek Anderson | Cleveland Browns | 6-foot-5, pounds | 6th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 35 | 85 | 8 | 58 | 181 | 581 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Fantasy tip: Although we feel Anderson is a better fit for the Cardinals' offense than starter Matt Leinart, DA remains the backup. Fantasy owners shouldn't draft Anderson.
Jimmy Clausen | Carolina Panthers | 6-foot-2, 222 pounds | Rookie
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 0 | 46 | -14 | 36 | -75 | 325 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -2 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Fantasy tip: It's unlikely we'll see Clausen start in 2010. Unless Matt Moore struggles or misses time due to injury, the Notre Dame product will ride the pine in preparation for the future (Moore is a free agent after this year). Clausen's only value is found in full-retention keeper leagues.
Dan Orlovsky | Houston Texans | 6-foot-5, 230 pounds | 6th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
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| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
Fantasy tip: The former Detroit Lion has shown meager displays of capability at the pro level, while also committing silly errors (stepping out of the back of the end zone, for example). Starter Matt Schaub is injury-prone, but that doesn't suggest Orlovsky will have fantasy value if he is called upon. Stay away on draft day.
Rex Grossman | Washington Redskins | 6-foot-1, 225 pounds | 8th year
2010 Projected NFL/Fantasy Football Statistics
| Pass Att | Pass Com | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Int | Run Att | Run Yds | Run TDs | Tot TDs | |||||||||
| Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi | Lo | Hi |
| 506 | 556 | 272 | 322 | 3606 | 4006 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 11 | 21 | 15 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
Fantasy tip: Unless quarterback Donovan McNabb falls to injury, don't count on seeing Grossman. There is a decent chance of that - McNabb has missed a game in five of the last six seasons - but Grossman is not worth stashing until it happens. He should be left for the wire in all leagues.
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