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Fantasy baseball player profiles: MLB - Starting Pitchers

Fantasy baseball player profiles: MLB - Starting Pitchers

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Quick Jump: Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles

1 Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
2 Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
3 Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants
4 CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees
5 Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
6 Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox
7 Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
8 Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
9 Josh M. Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins
10 Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado Rockies
11 Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta Braves
12 Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
13 Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
14 David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
15 Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
16 Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
17 Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota Twins
18 Mat Latos, SP, San Diego Padres
19 Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
20 Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
21 Roy Oswalt, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
22 Dan Hudson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
23 Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
24 Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
25 Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
26 Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs
27 Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta Braves
28 Josh Beckett, SP, Boston Red Sox
29 Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston Astros
30 John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox
31 Ted Lilly, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
32 Colby Lewis, SP, Texas Rangers
33 Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland Athletics
34 Ricky Nolasco, SP, Florida Marlins
35 Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
36 Shaun Marcum, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
37 Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
38 Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs
39 Brandon Morrow, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
40 Scott Baker, SP, Minnesota Twins
41 Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox
42 Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincinnati Reds
43 Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees
44 C.J. Wilson, SP, Texas Rangers
45 Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
46 Gio Gonzalez, SP, Oakland Athletics
47 Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox
48 Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Colorado Rockies
49 Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
50 Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland Athletics
51 Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Francisco Giants
52 Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles
53 James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
54 Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
55 Edwin Jackson, SP, Chicago White Sox
56 Ian Kennedy, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
57 Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
58 Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado Rockies
59 Brett Myers, SP, Houston Astros
60 Jordan Zimmerman, SP, Washington Nationals
61 Chris Narveson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
62 John Lackey, SP, Boston Red Sox
63 Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
64 Javier Vazquez, SP, Florida Marlins
65 Ervin Santana, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
66 Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta Braves
67 Derek Lowe, SP, Atlanta Braves
68 Anibal Sanchez, SP, Florida Marlins
69 Jeff Niemann, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
70 Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds
71 Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox
72 Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
73 Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta Braves
74 Bud Norris, SP, Houston Astros
75 Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Baltimore Orioles
76 Carl Pavano, SP, Minnesota Twins
77 Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins
78 Joel Pineiro, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
79 Mark Buehrle, SP, Chicago White Sox
80 Jonathon Niese, SP, New York Mets
81 James McDonald, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
82 Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago Cubs
83 Jake Westbrook, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
84 Fausto Carmona, SP, Cleveland Indians
85 Randy Wolf, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
86 Joe Blanton, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
87 Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers
88 Jason Hammel, SP, Colorado Rockies
89 Clayton Richard, SP, San Diego Padres
90 Dallas Braden, SP, Oakland Athletics
91 Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians
92 Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox
93 Brett Cecil, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
94 A.J. Burnett, SP, New York Yankees
95 Jon Garland, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
96 Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
97 Derek Holland, SP, Texas Rangers
98 J.A. Happ, SP, Houston Astros
99 Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco Giants
100 Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets
101 Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners
102 Tim Stauffer, SP, San Diego Padres
103 Travis Wood, SP, Cincinnati Reds
104 Mike Pelfrey, SP, New York Mets
105 Randy Wells, SP, Chicago Cubs
106 Aaron Harang, SP, San Diego Padres
107 Jeff Francis, SP, Kansas City Royals
108 Brandon Webb, SP, Texas Rangers
109 Chris Young, SP, New York Mets
110 Chris Capuano, SP, New York Mets

Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Roy Halladay SP Philadelphia Phillies

Halladay will be drafted among the top three pitchers - probably first - in any league in which he's avaialable, with good reason. In his first season in the Senior Circuit, he slightly exceeded lofty expectations. One of those expectations - his high usage, including his first postseason experience - is cause for concern. The Cy Young Award-winner takes care of himself and has a fairly effortless motion, however. Though likely minor, increased home run rate and burnout risk are present, leading to slight overvaluation - perhaps - for a hurler who's a sturdy investment, nonetheless.


Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
16022520680572183.201.17

Felix Hernandez SP Seattle Mariners

Felix Hernandez's workload is his biggest concern, but his elite GB, BB/9 holding up. BABIP correction could be coming, but it isn't like he's easy to hit, especially with 2nd straight season of LD% drop. He'll be a top-3 mixed SP in just about all drafts, and it's justified.


Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11019117385781884.011.31

Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants

Bouts with HR marred an otherwise fine season for Tim Lincecum. His fastball mph dip is worrisome, but his GB uptick eases that concern. BB/9 not pristine but still a worthy figure. As long as SF stops tinkering with his mechanics, expect the usual elite performance.


CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
13021020688631803.771.28

CC Sabathia SP New York Yankees

CC Sabathia's K/9 drop and more hittable fastball is more of a reflection of his attempt to conserve his workload than his ability. He's also increasing his fastball use, but it has more heat on it. His run support and need to eat innings means he's hitting the zone more. His jump in grounders induced, on the bright side, is making him more of a complete pitcher. Recent weight loss might ease stress on his knee. It's a contract - err, opt-out year, for what that's worth of his stable fantasy SP1 value.


Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
16022019275652143.071.17

Justin Verlander SP Detroit Tigers

Sinking HR/9 coincides with Justin Verlander's increase in GB rate. A "down year" for his K rate still top-notch. 2009 was special, after all. IP starting to pile up, but he has excelled at conserving his energy during games and over the season (evidenced by strong 2010 finish). A safe investment as a No. 1 SP.


Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
14020520085651713.731.29

Jon Lester SP Boston Red Sox

Despite a late-season control slip, Jon Lester continued his K/9 maturity by complementing it with an even more encouraging GB spike. Hard to tell if fatigue or something else caused the fade, and control slips will probably be his main problem, but overall growth has the profile of a fantasy ace.


Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
14019116467521743.161.13

Zack Greinke SP Milwaukee Brewers

Zack Greinke's ERA and LOB% hid stable skills, even with a down K/9. Buy GB spike, move to NL to improve dominance. Had reservations about playing for non-competitive squad. New motivation could be elixir for talented arm. Fractured rib will delay the start of his season, but if you can cover your P tracks on draft day, still worth a discounted pick.


Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
14021619677352083.211.07

Cliff Lee SP Philadelphia Phillies

If we have to quibble with Cliff Lee, it's with his back issues, FB% jump and the fact that repeating that BB/9 is unlikely. But, of course, when healthy, he'll eat efficient IP for a team with which he has already excelled. Plus, that K/9 climb is endearing for an overwhelmingly clean profile.


Josh M. Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
8012911352451223.631.22

Josh M. Johnson SP Florida Marlins

Josh M. Johnson eased some durability concerns, but he stumbled down the stretch for the second straight year. But his velocity held up for the most part after his big '09 IP increase following Tommy John surgery. Still has elite skills, and if the draft room allows his price to drop, the worries are outweighed, especially if you can grab him as a No. 2 mixed SP.


Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado Rockies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10017516879751664.061.39

Ubaldo Jimenez SP Colorado Rockies

Ubaldo Jimenez's April and May: Brilliant. The rest: Jimenez-ish. BB/9 adds shakiness to his value, but GB and K/9 keep him among ace-capable SP. A regression to '09 isn't bad.


Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
3060643022504.501.43

Tommy Hanson SP Atlanta Braves

Tommy Hanson turned things around in final 3 months after a delivery adjustment. His K/9 took a tumble in last 2 months, but at the same time, he bumped his GB rate and BB/9. Plenty of skill, even if '09 numbers are a reach. His maturity in adjusting bolsters his fantasy ace case.


Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
13020517276551753.341.11

Matt Cain SP San Francisco Giants

Consistent Matt Cain improved his BB/9, which makes his moderate K/9 more acceptable. Plus: He gained K/9 in 2H. Easing off his slider probably helped, too. FB remain a concern, though, and he was pretty fortunate with his BAABIP. But he has pitched to low BABIPs for most of his career - maybe it's his profile now. A workhorse. Just be wary of IP catching up to him.


Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11017717073341553.711.15

Dan Haren SP Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Haren's outings in a Halos uni lined up fairly well with his output as a member of the Oakland Athletics. The horrendous hit rate against him while he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks also began to normalize, and he reduced his HR/9. He relies on his cutter now, and his swinging strike percentage has risen above 10.00. Maybe he'll keep that 8.00-plus K/9, but even if Haren's command rate no longer knocks your socks off, he'll avoid the long ball more often. There's something to be said for familiarity.


David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
15020518568441792.991.12

David Price SP Tampa Bay Rays

Fortune in LOB%, HR/FB aided David Price's elite 2010. As long as you don't expect those gaudy numbers, Price can still be a low-end fantasy mixed ace. He's better as a No. 2, though, and he might be a value, depending on the room. GB growth, LD% and BB% drops point to him harnessing his stuff.


Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
12018517175461383.651.17

Jered Weaver SP Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Jered Weaver put it all together last year by improving on nearly every major statistical indicator. His K/9 and BB/9 improved from already impressive levels. A slight drop in his dominance could be expected, especially after a career-high 224 innings. Weaver's '09 campaign was a bit of an anomaly. His tendency as a flyball pitcher should bring him back to earth a bit. But, his ability to make hitters swing and miss can't be overlooked.


Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
17021216859562142.501.06


Clayton Kershaw looks like an emerging ace in age-23: elite K/9, good K/BB, with a WHIP that won't hurt you. IP jump was manageable. His gradual BB/9 improvement in 2010 confirms room to grow. But warning signs include low GB%, FB climb. His stuff carries him, and sometimes that can lead to issues. Still worth a top investment, but not as bankable as numbers suggest.


Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota Twins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10017015770681683.711.32

Francisco Liriano SP Minnesota Twins

Francisco Liriano's first full season since Tommy John surgery last year provided more hope for 2011. After a solid '08, he struggled in '09 with control and confidence as he attempted to come back from his '06 surgery. Elbow and forearm issues had a lot to do with his shoddy performance. Despite losing steam in 2H, Liriano returned to form by increasing his groundballs and strikeouts last season, and not even an elevated H% held him back. After finally bouncing back with positive signs, it's safer to rely on him, keeping in mind when bidding a moderate risk of last year's fade repeating itself.


Mat Latos, SP, San Diego Padres
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
12018617070491683.391.18

Mat Latos SP San Diego Padres

Mat Latos' IP jump makes it easy to doubt him. But his BB/9, GB jump and ability to induce whiffs ease that concern. Invest in his mature K/BB, which will give him a top-level fantasy season even with a drop-off.


Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10016414561411553.351.13

Cole Hamels SP Philadelphia Phillies

Examiners of Hamels' swinging strike percentage might be quick to question his jump in K/9 in 2010, with some concern about the bump in BB/9. The southpaw, however, added a cutter, for which he showed greater feel in the second half, and he continued to rely on a nasty changeup. Expect some improvement in run support, and there are signs that his problem with jacks allowed could dissolve, albeit slowly. Hamels may be too inconsistent to be a fantasy ace, but he should be a solid investment and could be taking the next step.


Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
14020517881582243.561.15

Max Scherzer SP Detroit Tigers

Max Scherzer looked reborn after minors stint; his K/9 came back to life after developing a third pitch. His pitching style still prompts caution about him wearing down, but skills are becoming stable; note his monthly GB uptick as season wore on. Could serve as an AL-only ace but probably better as a No. 2 or 3 in mixed.


Roy Oswalt, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Roy Oswalt SP Philadelphia Phillies

Statistical metrics, like swinging strike percentage, didn't support Oswalt's dramatic increase in K/9. His velocity has remained fairly steady, but he went to his changeup more often, something that will likely continue under Rich Dubee's direction. There's no doubt that nagging health problems make a big difference in the right-hander's effectiveness; he avoided them in 2010. Several factors could make him overvalued, but the market may allow you to tolerate it.


Dan Hudson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
2030291410234.201.30

Dan Hudson SP Arizona Diamondbacks

Dan Hudson's NL switch prompted his first signs of a breakout. His FB% and HR/9 leave reasons to be concerned about correction, but his K/9 and K/BB say it wasn't a fluke. GB increase offers more hope for this riser. Buy.


Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Chris Carpenter SP St. Louis Cardinals

In his second straight healthy season, Chris Carpenter's skills showed vulnerability - maybe it's all those innings? On and off HR troubles, increased FB%, decreased GB% warn of more spottiness coming. But it's an already dazzling skill set, minus K's. He won't repeat '09, but he'll still be ace-capable. Workload a concern, but not value-killing.


Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
4060602621513.901.35

Chad Billingsley SP Los Angeles Dodgers

Chad Billingsley's GB and BB% bouncebacks, especially in 2H, regained '08 success. Using cutter properly a big reason. Dipping K/9 one reason for hesitation, but he flashed eliteness there in Sept. Not an ace, but not far off. Bid confidently.


Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11018417077681603.771.29

Yovani Gallardo SP Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo's slider looked like it did his rookie year. His LOB% is in line for improvement, but high LD rate means his BABIP might not come down so soon. BB/9 boost notable, especially in 2H, but it's still ugly for a fantasy ace.


Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Ryan Dempster SP Chicago Cubs

Ryan Dempster's last three seasons as a SP have proven his consistency: Notable K/9 has made up for BB/9 slips, and he eats IP. HR remain an issue given increasing FB rate, but his GB profile doesn't support it becoming a bigger problem. His 2H slip-ups and increased hittability might be workload-related, but just minor bumps in otherwise reliable road worth a 2011 investment.


Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
9016114668431133.801.17

Tim Hudson SP Atlanta Braves

Tim Hudson's GB-fueled brilliance came at a bargain price. For his type, though, he gives up a bunch of HR. A positive: His K/9 grew to respectable levels in final 2 months. Some other concerns: low swinging strike %, high CT%. His return probably won't surpass what most are paying, but his BB/9-friendly profile says his drop-off won't be disastrous.


Josh Beckett, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
601011034629834.101.31

Josh Beckett SP Boston Red Sox

Ugly Josh Beckett surface stats and unlucky indicators hid skills that remain solid. A velocity dip can partially be blamed on back issues, his first big injuries for BOS. Using his cutter less and hitting the zone more would facilitate a bounce-back. His HR allowance still can be mitigated or cut by his workable GB rates. It's hard to think he'd mirror 2010 without an injury. His midrange mixed price - a likely bargain - allows for a profit.


Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston Astros
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
9016716972461153.881.29

Wandy Rodriguez SP Houston Astros

GB increase, HR/9 improvement, 2H turnaround (including big K/9 jump) rebuild faith in Wandy Rodriguez. He doesn't throw hard, but he pitches, and he's getting better at it. A handy mixed No. 3 SP whose reliability is growing.


John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
9017519085481154.371.36

John Danks SP Chicago White Sox

John Danks is already offering a stable skills profile with an upward-trending GB rate. His K/9 can grow, especially since his velocity increased again. Plus, he handles his cutter and RH bats, but even with some uptick his performance is heavily dictated by contact. A reliable midrange option with a hint of growth.


Ted Lilly, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Ted Lilly SP Los Angeles Dodgers

Ted Lilly's BABIP is kept low by the ample HR he gives up. Luckily, his BB/9 and capable K/9 have carried him for the last 3 years. At some point (age-35 season?), the FB and his dull velocity will catch up to him. He dominated in his pitcher-friendly home park, though, so that might be stalled for at least this year.


Colby Lewis, SP, Texas Rangers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
601001024426813.961.28

Colby Lewis SP Texas Rangers

Colby Lewis' K/9 consistent for most of the season - unfamiliarity factor might've helped. Still allows too many FB, could bite him. BB/9 was OK for MLB return, but that could be an issue, too. Invest for similar stats, but not better.


Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
5092884135784.011.34

Brett Anderson SP Oakland Athletics

What is it that scares many away from Brett Anderson? It must be last April's strain near the elbow that sent him to the DL twice. It can't be his nasty slider or spacious home ballpark. It's not his GB-friendly approach. Unquestionably, the southpaw carries some health risk. Few are willing to pay for the possible reward. The 23-year-old closed last season by pitching the final 2 months without an elbow-related incident. His 2010 setbacks weren't surprising; his 2008 workload swelled by 70 innings in 2009. Anderson's danger makes you cautious. His fantasy ceiling - a No. 2 or No. 3 mixed league starter - is too high to forsake going a buck or two more than this year's timid crowd is willing, however.


Ricky Nolasco, SP, Florida Marlins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11019520888451464.061.30

Ricky Nolasco SP Florida Marlins

Have we ever seen skills this unlucky? Ricky Nolasco's brilliant K/BB will continue to go unnoticed by many, thanks to his surface stats. HR and htitability plague him, but his GB% increased. So did his first-pitch strike % and swinging strike %. There's still a ton to like here. The puzzle is almost back to '08 solution. Invest.


Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
14020616576601983.321.09

Madison Bumgarner SP San Francisco Giants

Madison Bumgarner will probably get less love but has the better makeup. He used his complete arsenal and kicked his MLB velocity back up, which makes his sidearm delivery nastier. Bum isn't overly dominant, but it's growing. His helpful BB/9, GB prowess and upside make him an undervalued breakout candidate.


Shaun Marcum, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Shaun Marcum SP Milwaukee Brewers

After returning from Tommy John surgery, Marcum's BB/9 looked pristine, and his K/9 was justified by career-best swinging strike % and highly effective changeup. However, he's more reliant on deception, and his FB% jumped back up while his GB fell. Oh, and that elbow strain DL trip shouldn't prompt overspending on him.


Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
13019519379461443.651.23

Hiroki Kuroda SP Los Angeles Dodgers

BB/9 and GB have defined Hiroki Kuroda, but K/9 grew for 2nd straight year. Age, profile mean it might be near apex, but swinging strike % encouraging that he can sustain it. He stayed healthy, too, but it's a hard bet to make again. Bargain price might climb.


Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11017617173531573.731.27

Matt Garza SP Chicago Cubs

Matt Garza boasts good BB/9. That's probably about the only thing of his that's stable. FB rate, HR/9 have climbed in 3 straight years joined with GB decline, and he heads to a worse home park for that. Don't overvalue his wins bump or league switch.


Brandon Morrow, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10014513659511263.661.29

Brandon Morrow SP Toronto Blue Jays

Brandon Morrow's BB/9 growth was a positive sign in his transition from the rotation. Plus, his K/9 jumped! The opposite usually happens when translating your stuff out of the 'pen. His BABIP was elevated, but he gives up hard contact. His walks still aren't at a truly safe level yet, either. Luckily, TOR shut him down with about a month left to keep him fresh. He owns the upside of an ace, and even though he'll merely hint at that level in 2011, you'll have to pay a pretty penny for it.


Scott Baker, SP, Minnesota Twins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
3060603118434.651.30

Scott Baker SP Minnesota Twins

Scott Baker remains a scary option because of his around-the-black approach, homer allowance and elbow recovery setback. However, if you can snag him at a dirt-cheap price, you'll be getting one of the better BB/K profiles in MLB backed by a competent offense. 2008 is a distant memory and shouldn't be banked on returning, but there are pieces here that make him a mixed rotation capper.


Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11016014662581243.491.28

Clay Buchholz SP Boston Red Sox

Clay Buchholz's success stems from elite GB rate and HR prevention - his '08 MLB K/9 isn't likely to show up soon. BB/9 confounds his WHIP, and he was fortunate to have such a low ERA. His BAABIP-related performance is volatile. The skills are nearly established, but the mirage should bite back more in 2011.


Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
3065653130584.291.46

Edinson Volquez SP Cincinnati Reds

Good news: Edinson Volquez recaptured his K/9 and found GB in first work since TJ surgery. Bad news: BB/9 still a problem. The latter can recover with continued road back, though. A flier.


Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10017518178471444.011.30

Phil Hughes SP New York Yankees

HR still plague Phil Hughes. He stumbled down the stretch last season. IP increase probably caps his short-term upside. Still has desirable BB/9, though. Many might overpay for promise. Too many flaws to be more than a No. 4 mixed SP.


C.J. Wilson, SP, Texas Rangers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
14020518879821763.471.32

C.J. Wilson SP Texas Rangers

C.J. Wilson's GB prowess helps his HR prevention. But his BB/9 and late-season stumbles corrected early success in first season as SP. K/9 jump after July cause for optimism there, but IP jump must be a concern. If you can get him at a doubt-induced bargain, though, he still has the skills to produce quality mixed rotation depth.


Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11017216161461413.191.20

Johnny Cueto SP Cincinnati Reds

At 24, Johnny Cueto still has plenty of room to grow, but his dropping K/9 isn't a good sign. Note his improving BB/9 and GB%. There's a lot to like here, but a dominance increase would make breakout more likely to happen this year.


Gio Gonzalez, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
13019716477791973.521.23

Gio Gonzalez SP Oakland Athletics

Gio Gonzalez may come at a discount and boasts upside. He began to rein in his BB/9 and has the K upside to warrant a bid. He also posted an opponent's hit rate due for correction, however, and walks will continue to be an issue. The likelihood that he'll earn more than you spend is minute.


Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
4084834032724.291.37

Gavin Floyd SP Chicago White Sox

A favorable K/BB was overshadowed by extreme highs and lows in Gavin Floyd's 2010. He has the profile to survive at U.S. Cellular Field. Dominance decline in 2H might've been caused by shoulder issues. 2nd straight year of improved velocity means K/9 could still climb. A mixed midrounder that's getting stabler.


Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Colorado Rockies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10016014868561073.831.28

Jhoulys Chacin SP Colorado Rockies

K/9 jump adds more intrigue to GB-friendly Jhoulys Chacin. He fits in with current Coors arms and is a prime sleeper.


Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
60100974632734.141.29

Jeremy Hellickson SP Tampa Bay Rays

Jeremy Hellickson's small sample of BB/9 still promising; that's his biggest strength. FB% the biggest flaw in his game, and he wasn't a GB-heavy P in the minors. But at least TB protected his workload, and he pitches in a favorable home park. He's polished. Some will probably overpay, but he has the upside to justify it.


Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10017616874661293.781.33

Trevor Cahill SP Oakland Athletics

A GB artist with manageable BB/9 can go a long way for the right price. But Trevor Cahill is too rich for fantasy comfort. He feels hardly any batter breeze, and his irrationally microscopic .236 BAABIP presents the archetype of batted-ball normalization. Opponents make plenty of contact against this soft tosser. It's not like his velocity jumped or his BB/9 is all that sparkling for what it would take to ease your lack-of-dominance concerns. It's hard to put stock into powerless, location-based arms. If you make him one of your draft day priorities, you will suffer. Let someone else bow blindly to Cahill's 2010.


Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Jonathan Sanchez kept his skills profile but benefited from a .267 BABIP; his career performance says that's an outlier. Though the dominant Sanchez showed improvement in each month, Sanchez still gives up too many BB and FB for you to invest in 2010 results. His playoff performance might inflate his draft room price despite his growth potential being somewhat limited.


Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
3445411716463.401.27

Brian Matusz SP Baltimore Orioles

After a rough start last year, Brian Matusz bounced back and displayed some promising skills in the second half. Improvements in walks, strikeouts and homers allowed were a positive development and could carry over to this year. Continued maturity and more experience could make Matusz a lefty that you can't ignore. However, the AL East is among the factors that make this task more formidable.


James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
15022020682611913.351.21

James Shields SP Tampa Bay Rays

James Shields is a mixed bag. He still has elite BB/K. He's also more easily hittable - especially in long balls. GB% drop predicts this problem will persist. K/9 explosion won't fully go away, but that usually isn't his game. It'll be tempered. He won't be '08 version, but '09 can come in handy at the right price and if you already have invested in a handful of mixed SP. Might be a bargain.


Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11019119885361174.011.23

Bronson Arroyo SP Cincinnati Reds

Bronson Arroyo's BB/9 growth required a trade-off of K/9, which lowers his value. FB% rose for the 2nd straight year, but LD% drop gives some validity to BABIP drop - though it'll probably normalize. At least you know you're getting around 200 IP.


Edwin Jackson, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
9018218788591484.351.35

Edwin Jackson SP Chicago White Sox

Thanks to a mechanical change, Edwin Jackson improved when switching from the NL to the AL. BB's remain his weak spot, but they went down during said league switch. On the upswing are two vital features for rounding out deep fantasy squads: K/9 and GB rate. Still plenty of upside for a talented arm finding his footing.


Ian Kennedy, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11018817276581773.641.22

Ian Kennedy SP Arizona Diamondbacks

Ian Kennedy showed respectable K/BB through most of his first full MLB season, with an aggressive approach while capturing the power of his curve and changeup. He's crafty, not heat-seeking, but sometimes that can lead to a K/9 increase of an already useful figure. His IP jump might limit growth there, and FB remain an issue, but this remains an intriguing profile to bid on again.


Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Ricky Romero SP Toronto Blue Jays

You'll need to be comfortable with a less than flattering BB/9, but Ricky Romero's growth is real. GB base drives him. Cutter redefined him. Stamina issues arose for 2nd straight 2H. 200-K upside, but still not a complete package.


Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado Rockies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10016115969601123.861.36

Jorge De La Rosa SP Colorado Rockies

GB, K/9 keep Jorge De La Rosa on fantasy radars. Finger injury cut 1H short, and HR/9 still high for GB arm. The good: In 2H, sacrificed dominance for BB/9 gains, but it isn't gone. Putting it together? A relatively cheap flier - was overvalued last year, now undervalued.


Brett Myers, SP, Houston Astros
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Brett Myers SP Houston Astros

Brett Myers' positives were realish; he improved his BB/9 for the 3rd straight year and boosted an already solid GB rate ... and a middling K/9. His dull velocity and IP jump sustains doubt, though, and with his CT-based approach as a SP, how much more can he grow? It's best to save him for a mixed waiver wire and let another owner draft him.


Jordan Zimmerman, SP, Washington Nationals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
13020019276411553.421.17

Jordan Zimmermann SP Washington Nationals

An enticing BB/K and BB/9 profile with increasing GB that you won't find among most mixed late-round options. Don't let his threads or below-average W potential drive you away. For his first full campaign post-Tommy John surgery, Zimm must first try to cut his HR allowance. With regained velocity and BB/9, along with a few tweaks, Zimmermann could be one of the biggest SP bargains of 2011.


Chris Narveson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Chris Narveson SP Milwaukee Brewers

Chris Narveson put it together as a starter in Aug and Sept. - slightly fortunate, but he found his K/9. More GB would help, but at least he improved there as a SP. A reversal of LOB% fortune and less LD% against him as a SP would aid a breakout. Watch him.


John Lackey, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11017518176431423.911.28

John Lackey SP Boston Red Sox

John Lackey's K/9 has dropped in each of the last five seasons. His innings are starting to pile up, he's hitting the strike zone less, and opponents are having less trouble hitting him. Boston's run support in theory helps his W's, but you can't bank on that. For silver linings, he keeps the ball on the ground enough for you to settle on him, his velocity didn't drop notably, his BB/9 still isn't dangerous, and his skills rebounded in the final two months. At least you're getting a reliable innings eater, but how much can his K's recover?


Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
4270532529753.211.17

Wade Davis SP Tampa Bay Rays

Maybe Wade Davis just needs more time. K/9 wasn't as potent with extended MLB time. Probably lucky (BABIP, LOB%), and he still gives up ample FB. BB/9 improved considerably down the stretch, so there's hope if he's a cheap buy.


Javier Vazquez, SP, Florida Marlins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Javier Vazquez SP Florida Marlins

Javier Vazquez was successful in the NL East in 2009. Florida's park is much friendlier to hurlers than his recent AL home yards. And the right-hander has flourished more often when the stakes are low. He may have fouled up his mechanics in the Bronx, which could help to explain his velocity's big dip. Vazquez, 34, is busting his butt in hopes of cashing in after this season. But how much of the 3 mph he lost on his heat will he regain? This is looking like the last, best year to invest in him, but there are negative signs about his ability that didn't exist entering previous bounce-back campaigns.


Ervin Santana, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
12019218374521463.471.22

Ervin Santana SP Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Let's not overlook Ervin Santana's checkered injury past, beginning with an elbow sprain in 2009. There's a pattern here. The bursitis he dealt with in 2010 ST is long gone, but that condition sometimes surfaces because of an underlying issue. Even if you're not overly concerned about another 70-inning jump for a pitcher with who has had a series of right arm issues? Don't pay for a 17 W's notched for a team that provided terrible run support for the rest of the staff and a pitcher who showed no discerning signs that his mediocre K/BB sees outstanding days ahead.


Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
12018717673501633.511.21

Mike Minor SP Atlanta Braves

Mike Minor's ERA didn't reflect his solid skills translation in 1st MLB action. FB must be corrected, and arsenal must be refined, but he showed good promise in missing bats. BB/K profile worth buying if he makes the rotation.


Derek Lowe, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Derek Lowe SP Atlanta Braves

Derek Lowe's 2H K/9 bump brings back some intrigue. BB/9 remains sound. Refined delivery, arsenal might be cause for K increase - maybe he's back to '07, '08 form. He's defined by consistency, predictability. It's not worth paying extra for a 37-year-old, IP-eating sinkerballer with a rising HR/9, though he's still worth the occasional stint off a mixed waiver wire.


Anibal Sanchez, SP, Florida Marlins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
14019017668571903.221.23

Anibal Sanchez SP Florida Marlins

Talented Anibal Sanchez finally stayed healthy. Results: growth in BB/9, GB, HR/9. 2-year K/9 drip is probably the cost of that improvement. Pitching more to CT could help his health. Hard to bank on those IP again, but he's worth a shot if your risk is low.


Jeff Niemann, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Jeff Niemann SP Tampa Bay Rays

If second-half shoulder strain doesn't practically nullify Jeff Niemann's gains in BB/9, we could be looking at another big step forward in 2011. The towering right-hander has a history of mild shoulder maladies, though, so don't take last year's DL trip with a grain of salt. Solving HR problems would go a long way into solidifying his maturity.


Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11019317578511803.641.17

Homer Bailey SP Cincinnati Reds

Out of farm options, post-post-hype youngster Homer Bailey probably will stick in rotation. After shoulder inflammation cost him nearly three months of action, he made productive leaps in K/9, K/BB and built on growth of slider. There's still risk, but his price preserves his profit potential. People forget he's only 24.


Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11017516678451424.011.21

Jake Peavy SP Chicago White Sox

Jake Peavy's K/BB wasn't the issue last year; after May and before season-ending injury, it was near spotless, thanks to mechanical recovery. Rising FB% takes blame for early struggles, along with K/9 tumble and unlucky LOB%. Doubt hangs over his 2011, but if you're fishing, his price could be basement-level. Still acelike potential if he carries over improvements.


Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
5084843423663.641.27

Jaime Garcia SP St. Louis Cardinals

Though he was lucky last year, Jaime Garcia has the skills to repeat his success. GB are a given, and his K/9 grew in the 2H. STL handled his workload well down the stretch, and he isn't a max-effort P anyway. Expect a correction, not a collapse.


Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Jair Jurrjens SP Atlanta Braves

Jair Jurrjens' value relies on BB/9, which isn't even that strong. For someone whose K/9 could use some growth, he doesn't have a big GB presence. Lower-body injuries weren't cause of bad year; it was normalization. 2009 is an outlier; don't expect it.


Bud Norris, SP, Houston Astros
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
9014514465561294.031.38

Bud Norris SP Houston Astros

Bud Norris took some steps forward after returning from right shoulder tendonitis. He still has BB/9 issues, but his K/9 and slight GB improvement don't hurt for potential bargain-bin jewels.


Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Baltimore Orioles
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
100200228101561094.551.42

Jeremy Guthrie SP Baltimore Orioles

Jeremy Guthrie's 2009 was an outlier, despite his FB-happy, K-devoid profile. His BB/9 is his key. Bumped GB% back up, too, though it's still a small figure. For him, though, a noteworthy improvement. He'll eat IP, and that's worth a backend spot in single-universe. At least he's stable.


Carl Pavano, SP, Minnesota Twins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Carl Pavano SP Minnesota Twins

2010 seems to mirror Carl Pavano's MO from 2005. Improved GB percentage seems attributed to evolution in his arsenal, trusting it and locating better. He's operating with fine margin, however. Target Field is good place for him to stick, because FB haven't been huge issue, but he still gives up HR at bare minimum the league average rate. His value comes from a mixed waiver, not in a draft. Be careful.


Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Kevin Slowey SP Minnesota Twins

Pristine BB/9 and serviceable-at-times K/9 is why you take the chance on Kevin Slowey. Frightening HR/9, FB% and LD%, along with recent arm issues, are why you pray. Battling for rotation spot. Home park can only go so far, but he's teetering on being merely a platoon option for when he's at Target Field.


Joel Pineiro, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Joel Pineiro SP Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Joel Pineiro's K/9 increase looks out of place next his flatlining swinging strike percentage. Return to the AL spooked him enough to walk two batters per nine and fail to deliver first-pitch strikes more than 60 percent of the time again. An oblique strain cost him nearly two months, but it's not exactly the first time something or another has popped up. Pineiro's biggest asset: HR avoidance. He keeps that up, and he might remain solid midrange AL material.


Mark Buehrle, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
12020021794481244.231.33

Mark Buehrle SP Chicago White Sox

Miniscule K/9 negates miniscule BB/9 Mark Buehrle is what he is, just a filler P with a stable innings-eating profile. Under the right circumstances, including AL-only, that's worth an investment, but it shouldn't come at the expense of an upside option.


Jonathon Niese, SP, New York Mets
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
9015415261471233.561.29

Jonathon Niese SP New York Mets

There are many positives with Jonathon Niese. Incorporating a cutter was the key, as his 2H K/9 bump attests. Hamstring issues have slowed his progress, but there's upside in BB/9, and GB% makes him worth a flier.


James McDonald, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
3053512423444.081.40

James McDonald SP Pittsburgh Pirates

James McDonald: 3.52 ERA and 8.58 K/9 in 64 PIT frames, including a torrid - albeit fortunate - Sept. K/9 boomed as a SP. FB, opponents' CT and BB/9 are concerns, but entrenched in a clear role, McDonald has deep mixed sleeper value.


Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Carlos Zambrano SP Chicago Cubs

Tumultuous 2010 for Carlos Zambrano - anger management, bullpen stint, late-season revival - adds to erratic stock. K/9 highest in 4 years, but so was his BB/9. Bloated LOB%, HR luck, more fortune defined 2H. 3rd straight LD rise confirms his hittability. Blowup risk matches any potential value.


Jake Westbrook, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Jake Westbrook SP St. Louis Cardinals

Jake Westbrook's game turned around in STL, where his BB/K, GB, contact-first approach worked. The latter, unfortunately, keeps him risky, and he tallied ample IP in his first extensive action since '07. A source of stability, not growth, that can often perform at a high level. At least he stayed with Dave Duncan and will be cheap.


Fausto Carmona, SP, Cleveland Indians
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
601231266135934.461.31

Fausto Carmona SP Cleveland Indians

Fausto Carmona put up a better version of his typical line - ate IP w/GB approach had high WHIP. Fortune came in LOB% rebound, but was harder to hit - LD%, BABIP showed it - and BB/9 harkened back to '07. His improved approach to LHB helped. Has pieces to succeed but not enough consistency. Shouldn't be that far off from 2010.


Randy Wolf, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Randy Wolf SP Milwaukee Brewers

Randy Wolf's K/9 dropped, HR/9 climbed for the 3rd straight year. 2H normalized him, but erratic, still too many FB allowed - not good combo. BB/9 slipped again. Eating IP becoming his biggest asset. No need to use mixed draft spot on him. NL-only could use a P like this at a reasonable price.


Joe Blanton, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
3075894319615.161.44

Joe Blanton SP Philadelphia Phillies

The right-hander had a rough first half, missing the first month with a strained oblique and then being notably bad for the next two. Blanton believes that he corrected a serious delivery flaw that affected his sinker, and the results in the K/9 and ERA departments may bear him out. He's still just an innings eater, and ding dongs remain a problem.


Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
11019019585461494.031.27

Rick Porcello SP Detroit Tigers

Rick Porcello can't be counted on for K/9. The GB pitcher directs toward contact. His BB/9 improved enough, though, that a slight rebound is coming. If you're looking for an innings eater in severely deep leagues, he fits.


Jason Hammel, SP, Colorado Rockies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
501091085241824.291.37

Jason Hammel SP Colorado Rockies

HR/9, LOB% don't look good for Jason Hammel to take those steps many predicted in 2010. He's still quite hittable. Going for him: bump in K/9, GB, along with taming Coors Field. Displayed more velocity, better slider. An even deeper sleeper than last year.


Clayton Richard, SP, San Diego Padres
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Clayton Richard SP San Diego Padres

Clayton Richard's improved BB/9 can probably thank his increased aggressiveness. Though his GB% dipped, it's still a respectable number. Fortunate 1H LOB%, BABIP bit back in 2H. Still CT-first pitcher, so count on a correction and leave him for your mixed waiver wire.


Dallas Braden, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Dallas Braden SP Oakland Athletics

Even with his improved fastball movement, Dallas Braden has little margin for error, not something you want to pay heavily for in a SP. Low K/9 means BB/9 must remain at sparkling '10 level to repeat of what he earned. Plus, IP increase from '09 to '10 looms. Don't overpay for player dependent on in-play success.


Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
601051135037834.291.43

Carlos Carrasco SP Cleveland Indians

After restoring post-hype promise in AAA, Carlos Carrasco extended his 2010 momentum in CLE. Promising BB/9-GB% combo a prime reason to speculate; even in his down farm years, he had those peripherals. Has rotation job in grasp. Development has been long enough that light bulb is nearly ready to go off for a full season.


Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
2045442520385.001.42

Daisuke Matsuzaka SP Boston Red Sox

Daisuke Matsuzaka's lengthy injury report, high BB/9 and decreasing GB abilities are making '08 outlier more distant. Velocity uptick could push his K/9 up to pre-2010 levels, but that can't negate the harm of his other peripherals and his tendency to nibble.


Brett Cecil, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
4065552424703.321.22

Brett Cecil SP Toronto Blue Jays

If Brett Cecil would cash in on his minor league ground-ball rate (in the 60s), he'd really be onto something. He has steadily improved his BB/9. But he faded late in the season again and hasn't quite put it all together yet. Still can be effective at times in mixed, but he probably won't take enough steps forward to be bankable.


A.J. Burnett, SP, New York Yankees
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10017516172621603.701.27

A.J. Burnett SP New York Yankees

A.J. Burnett, 33, has seen his dominance tumble over the past three years. He has steadily put up a 1.30-plus WHIP and has seen his flies spike since moving to HR-friendly park. Some efficiently performed tweaks could put him back to '09 utility, though it still carried ample risk. There's hope with the right changes, however, because there's still some nasty stuff hidden in there. Some corrections to delivery foul-ups produced brief stints of excellence last year. K's should be your first expectation from him, but his BB/9 is perpetually a WIP. Luckily, many are doubting him, so his bargain price is worth a shot. Could be an impact AL-only buy.


Jon Garland, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Jon Garland SP Los Angeles Dodgers

Jon Garland: the latest PETCO Park case. Positives: Increases in K/9, GB. Sacrificed some BB/9, though. His profile doesn't say to buy into K/9. Same CT-first profile ripe for correction, especially in BABIP.


Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
1030311514204.501.50

Kyle Drabek SP Toronto Blue Jays

Kyle Drabek's refined arsenal has him in contention for No. 5 spot. May need some time at AAA, having skipped it, but GB profile and 2H farm BB/9 improvement bring intrigue, even if his K/9 isn't overwhelming yet. Late mixed flier.


Derek Holland, SP, Texas Rangers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
6090903828743.801.31

Derek Holland SP Texas Rangers

In mixed duty between SP and RP, Derek Holland showed more positive signs. K/9 was better as SP, and BB/9 was solid throughout. Would like to see more GB here, but skills enough to speculate on.


J.A. Happ, SP, Houston Astros
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
5090854543774.501.42

J.A. Happ SP Houston Astros

J.A. Happ saw a K/9 increase thanks to a revamped slider. He recovered in 2H after foremarm strain, but remember: He isn't a flamethrower, he still gives up plenty of HR, and his BB/9 went up as he sacrificed control to strike more out.


Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Barry Zito SP San Francisco Giants

Early 2010 jump result of GB, slider - he turned back into Barry Zito, though, as his BB/9, FB rose. Maybe late-season LOB% dips can be corrected, but he still lets too many runners on. He'll have his useful stretches, but mixed leaguers should wait for those to come. In NLs, he's depth sans upside.


Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
1030311710245.101.37

Johan Santana SP New York Mets

It's hard to think Johan Santana will revisit '07 K/9, but there's room for improvement on '10 if shoulder surgery takes. Another year of velocity dip, K/BB decline, K/9 collapse and high fly-ball rate raise red flags. He's more hittable. He'll get a late start to 2011. Could be a value in right setting. Could also be dead weight.


Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
7012511156411114.031.22

Michael Pineda will fight for a rotation spot. High-impact fastball, K/9 profile could hasten his arrival even if he doesn't break camp. Erraticness comes from relative struggles vs. LHP, developing stuff. Still a bit raw, but BB/9 on farm good precedent. A prospect well worth a flier.


Tim Stauffer, SP, San Diego Padres
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
3064582618563.661.19

Tim Stauffer SP San Diego Padres

As a SP in 2010, Tim Stauffer was fortunate with a high LOB% and low BABIP. K/9 was much better as RP. He boasts top-level GB% and reliable BB%, which were helped by his polished slider. Beware his small sample size, though. PETCO can only go so far.


Travis Wood, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10017616673571353.731.27

Travis Wood SP Cincinnati Reds

Travis Wood translated his AAA K/9 and BB/9 smoothly to MLB. Mixing up his pitches well but doesn't have much velocity - K/9 not set in stone. How much do you want to pay, though, for a FB-centric P with a hitter's home park? He isn't guaranteed a rotation spot. Sure, there's reason to invest, but temper your excitement.


Mike Pelfrey, SP, New York Mets
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
10018520388621174.281.43

Mike Pelfrey SP New York Mets

Mike Pelfrey is GB first, everything else a distant second. Low K/9, unsteady BB/9, reliance on Citi Field make him volatile. Could easily resort back to '09. You try these types from the mixed waiver wire, not your draft.


Randy Wells, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00
Randy Wells SP Chicago Cubs

Optimism for Randy Wells rests in another high GB year, small run support, a boost in K/9 and a BABIP that could come down. BB/9 defines his ability to eat IP. But '09 relied on lucky LOB%, BABIP, and 2010 K/9 isn't enough to justify upcoming breakout. Still a nibbler at heart. This is someone you grab off a mixed waiver wire, not a draftable upside commodity.


Aaron Harang, SP, San Diego Padres
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
3059642920444.421.42

Aaron Harang SP San Diego Padres

Aaron Harang's health problems have derailed his career. He normally minimizes damage by limiting BB/9, and his skill set (which more than leans FB) is suited to SD. He has been highly hittable, but a return home offers hope of an NL revival.


Jeff Francis, SP, Kansas City Royals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Jeff Francis SP Kansas City Royals

Jeff Francis' recent shoulder woes should keep his cost at virtually nothing. Which is one reason that he's worth a shot. Another: The southpaw morphed into a saber-friendly target in the past 4 years with his continued improvement in BB/9. Last year, he sported a 1.98 BB/9 while he was upright. A BB/9 in the mid-2.00s is a real likelihood. Francis won't miss Coors Field; Kauffman Stadium is much kinder. The 30-year-old is at full strength and keeps his club in ballgames. Good health may not last beyond ST, but it may last for the balance of the year. KC doesn't have the O for great run support, but help isn't far off. Francis isn't sexy, but he has a lot of room to turn a profit.


Brandon Webb, SP, Texas Rangers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
00000000.000.00

Brandon Webb SP Texas Rangers

Does Brandon Webb still have his elite GB rate and more notable K/9 that he flashed in '07 and '08? Hard to count on immediate recovery of health or skills after 2-year absence, but this former Cy Young profile isn't a bad lotto ticket.


Chris Young, SP, New York Mets
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
2030291413214.201.40

Chris Young SP New York Mets

Chris Young, with SD to close out 2010, made 2 starts in the minors and 3 in the majors. If he demonstrates that his shoulder is strong this spring, then he should keep the walks per nine below 4.00 and could post an ERA close to that mark, too. He has always been one of the league's tougher P to hit. Stay tuned, NL gamblers.


Chris Capuano, SP, New York Mets
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

WSVIPHERBBKERAWHIP
4075793220603.841.32

Chris Capuano SP New York Mets

Do you remember, like, four or five years ago, someone in your mixed league (was it you?) thinking that Chris Capuano was No. 4 starter material? Those days are gone, but the southpaw remains, two Tommy John procedures (seven years apart) and a (non-throwing) shoulder surgery later. He's a front-runner for one of two spots. He has struck out 7.40 batters per nine in his career. BB/9 kept his BB/k from teasing 3.00, save in 2006, but in his small sample size of a journey back to near relevance, he kept them in check. He was always wont to give up the long ball (1.27 HR/9 lifetime), but that'll be less of a concern at Citi Field. His stuff probably isn't 7.00 K/9 material anymore, but the deception and location remain respectable whiff material. Anything approaching his old-school rates, and he's giving you gravy for your end-game bid.