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Fantasy baseball player profiles: MLB - First Basemen

Fantasy baseball player profiles: MLB - First Basemen

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Quick Jump: Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles

1 Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
2 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
3 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox
4 Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
5 Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
6 Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
7 Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
8 Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox
9 Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox
10 Kendry Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
11 Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins
12 Adam Lind, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
13 Derrek Lee, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
14 Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals
15 Adam LaRoche, 1B, Washington Nationals
16 Carlos Pena, 1B, Chicago Cubs
17 Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Florida Marlins
18 Aubrey Huff, 1B, San Francisco Giants
19 James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
20 Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets
21 Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Kansas City Royals
22 Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
23 Brad Hawpe, 1B, San Diego Padres
24 Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle Mariners
25 Matt LaPorta. 1B, Cleveland Indians
26 Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland Athletics
27 Mitch Moreland, 1B, Texas Rangers
28 Dan Johnson, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
29 Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies
30 Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants
31 Brett Wallace, 1B, Houston Astros
32 Jason Giambi, 1B, Colorado Rockies

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
57981166281004.287.355.499.854

Albert Pujols 1B St. Louis Cardinals

Albert Pujols' CT rate dipped again, and his BA probably won't reach 2008 again. But you can't complain with where it is now. Rock-solid power, BA foundation now adding SB. The No. 1 pick in most drafts.


Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
572100185391242.323.416.582.998

Miguel Cabrera 1B Detroit Tigers

Elite HR, run production, BA line added career-best BB%, a notable FB jump and a K% that dropped for the 4th straight year. Off-field problems unlikely to lead to consequences and shouldn't devalue him. A top-3 player … who still has room to grow.


Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5687216420981.289.347.461.808

Adrian Gonzalez 1B Boston Red Sox

Adrian Gonzalez adjusted his approach vs. LHPs and saw a BA spike. He typically gets ample power regardless of P's handedness. Though stats say Fenway Park hurt LH power, leaving PETCO Park and gaining elite lineup protection are enough for an upgrade anyway. His power isn't park-based. If his shoulder recovers appropriately, this is a power-patience profile you should be safe bidding on.


Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5719717228907.301.420.522.942

Joey Votto 1B Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto has a top-level BB/K from which his other skills stem. Despite low CT%, LD, though dipping, keeps BA elite. HR/FB should normalize, and GB% too high for comfort, but 30 HR power still there. SB about opportunity, not speed. A top-10 fantasy profile.


Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4285810523761.245.331.472.803

Mark Teixeira 1B New York Yankees

Stable fly-ball indicators preserve Mark Teixeira's peak power foundation. Swing tweaks helped post-June recovery, even while he dealt with nagging injuries. HIs BA is in jeopardy of rebounding completely, though, given his uppercut tendencies since becoming a Yankee. But with smooth hamstring recovery, his first-round mixed value deserves your confidence.


Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4775111625750.243.305.465.770

Ryan Howard 1B Philadelphia Phillies

Howard's dip in home run and RBI marks look worse because of the time he missed time in August and the bum ankle he played with after that. Still, signs point to continued erosion of his power numbers. Howard is making strides in the BA department, but at some point, that won't be enough to offset the losses elsewhere and keep him among the top five first basemen. He should rebound to some degree this year. If he settles into his profile as a potential BA liability - let it rip when he gets good pitches, walk a lot when he doesn't - he'll be a beastly run producer.


Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
60084176321081.293.384.510.894

Prince Fielder 1B Milwaukee Brewers

Notable reversals in GB, FB rates helped strip some of Prince Fielder's HR. CT and BB/K grew, but BA dropped thanks to slumps and issues vs. LHP. RBI dipped because of issues with RISP and should come back. Still a top power source.


Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5156110832851.210.317.431.748

Adam Dunn 1B Chicago White Sox

HRs and BBs sculpt Adam Dunn's profile. You must deal with a .260-area BA and an awful contact rate if you want his near guarantee of 40-ish dingers. He didn't NEED to move to U.S. Cellular Field, but it doesn't hurt. You plan your clip around drafting him. In many cases, it's worth it because of his supreme stability. Same old, same old.


Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
23523648290.272.344.413.757

Paul Konerko 1B Chicago White Sox

Except for a fortunate BA, 2010 was merely an exaggeration of Paul Konerko's owned skills, not an anomaly. As long as he keeps his FB rate up, he's still a 30-HR threat with a useful BB/K that'll drive in 90-plus. Unfortunately, that'll cost more than recent years heading into his age-35 season, but there's still enough skepticism that could diminish his price - and therefore, any assumed risk.


Kendry Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4805613420690.279.337.460.797

Kendry Morales 1B Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Kendry Morales was seemingly on pace for a repeat of his '09 season before suffering a freak injury last year. There are questions of whether his lower leg will sap some of his power, but not enough to shy away from his raw talent. His dip in doubles and a drop in his flyball rate before the injury may have you cautious, but you shouldn't be spending what you would have before last year, anyway. If his plate discipline and slugging slowly improve, he could approach elite status as a first baseman.


Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4966713722790.276.340.472.812

Justin Morneau 1B Minnesota Twins

Justin Morneau's concussion was his second recorded instance as a major leaguer; he had multiple concussions in his school days. Morneau is focused on being ready for opening day. The 29-year-old slugger will give high-end production as long as he's in the lineup. But how easily could you lose him? Was the re-signing of Jim Thome for assurances that the Twinkies will have a left-handed thumper? The concussion issue alone drives Morneau into bottom-third mixed first basemen, but he probably won't come much more cheaply than in years past.


Adam Lind, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4586012420671.271.340.463.803

Adam Lind 1B Toronto Blue Jays

Adam Lind will be an everyday player. If Lind's failures against southpaws continue, that may change. Lind hit a mere .117, with a 0.10 BB/K and 12.8 liner rate, against his handedness. But in every season before last, the 27-year-old improved against them as his PT grew (.194 in 2007, .253 in 2008 and .275 in 2009). He used to pelt LHP. So where did it go? Lind has chalked it up to focus. Believe in him because of his 2H. He's TOR's most attractive choice at first and one of fantasy's most attractive bounce-backs. He shouldn't be UTIL-only for long, either.


Derrek Lee, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Derrek Lee 1B Baltimore Orioles

Derrek Lee's poor performance last year may be a result of him playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb. Although he hasn't missed much time over the course of his career due to injury, chronic injuries continue to pop up with D-Lee. He saw his flyball rate and power numbers plummet last year, but once again, this could have been a result of his ailment. A move to Camden Yards could revive his power numbers a bit, but there is always a chance another injury could limit his playing time. A repeat of '09 is rather unlikely.


Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5936917318871.292.368.435.803

Billy Butler 1B Kansas City Royals

Billy Butler's continual improvement versus right-handers was offset by abnormally poor marks against southpaws. Forecasts in 2010 of big-time power growth, which will require patience, were premature. All in all, a safe commodity worth an extra buck in case it begins to come about.


Adam LaRoche, 1B, Washington Nationals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4817012018713.249.343.410.753

Adam LaRoche 1B Washington Nationals

Adam LaRoche is good for about 25 HR a year - another FB increase ensured that. Whatever little BA skills he has might be in jeopardy - BB/K dipped, K% increased. But for his filler value, he gives you the power you need, and you take whatever erratic BA behavior you get with it.


Carlos Pena, 1B, Chicago Cubs
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
741015270.203.330.324.654

Carlos Pena 1B Chicago Cubs

Carlos Pena's power stayed intact in 2010. That's what you pay for, especially since he's at Wrigley Field. A BA rebound, unfortunately, constitutes getting back to his still painful clip. Still can't hit LHP. More of the same.


Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Florida Marlins
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
32336828401.254.345.390.735

Gaby Sanchez 1B Florida Marlins

Gaby Sanchez quietly had an impressive rookie year. Sound CT%, notable FB% back up skills. Watch out for 2H fade, though. BB/K OK but a dip from his farm pattern. Long farm career, finally hit bigs at 26. Does he have much upside? It's probably short-term if so, but 1B is his to lose without much threat, and 20 HR isn't bad when you're scrounging.


Aubrey Huff, 1B, San Francisco Giants
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Aubrey Huff 1B San Francisco Giants

Aubrey Huff had a midseason HR explosion that was fluky, as shown by HR/FB. BB/K jump supports BA rebound, but his up-and-down performances will keep his value down. At this point in his career, Huff won't repeat '08, but another 2010 isn't a stretch. Just don't overpay for it.


James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5165114710662.285.337.401.738

James Loney 1B Los Angeles Dodgers

Dipping FB rate, lack of promising power indicators dooms 26-year-old James Loney. RBI his most stable contribution - as stable as that can be, at least. A mixed UTIL player with little evidence of growth potential.


Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
385499017523.234.333.416.749

Ike Davis 1B New York Mets

Ike Davis responded well to quick call-up. Decent BB/K, BA vs. LHP were promising, but his CT, fortunate BABIP and low LD rate don't spell improvement. Also had bouts with GB jump late in the year. Be careful; that might cap his power upside for 2011. Expecting 30 HR too much, but an improvement on rookie total not off base.


Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Kansas City Royals
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Kila Ka'aihue 1B Kansas City Royals

Kila Ka'aihue finally has at least a foot in the PT door. Hawaiian Punch refreshed our memories of his talent by hitting .241-8-24 in 145 AB following his mid-August MLB return. He'll turn 27 before April; he reaches base frequently (bump him up in OBP leagues) and - more importantly - Billy Butler envies his pop. The pre-Eric Hosmer window should be enough time to give the Kila monster a trial. If you're looking for a power lotto ticket, you could do worse as your draft winds down.


Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
57691166261012.288.366.484.850

Freddie Freeman 1B Atlanta Braves

A hot AAA year lines up Freddie Freeman to start at first. He has gap power that could eventually grow, but that won't happen thisy year. His plate discipline isn't outstanding, but ATL wants him to learn on the job. That could still offer ample RBI and a serviceable BA. For a mixed bench, that's not bad.


Brad Hawpe, 1B, San Diego Padres
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
3764610410562.277.339.426.765

Brad Hawpe 1B San Diego Padres

Brad Hawpe showed signs of decline before last year; Coors Field and PETCO Park are a little dissimilar. Still, poor health played a part in Hawpe's 2010 struggles. He won't hit 20 HR, but he should rebound. A lot of it hinges on his performance vs. LHP, though, if they'll give him full load of AB against them.


Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle Mariners
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4565211120540.243.335.417.752

Justin Smoak 1B Seattle Mariners

Justin Smoak should at least continue receiving opportunities to develop. Lack of 1B options, best potential for middle of the order keeping him relevant for 2011. Solid BB%, LD%, plus unlucky BABIP, leave room for BA improvement; CT% doesn't help, though. Still, all but forgotten prospect won't cost nearly as much to find out as it did last season. Solid reason to invest.


Matt LaPorta. 1B, Cleveland Indians
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Matt LaPorta 1B Cleveland Indians

Post-hyper Matt LaPorta's FB% jump forecasts growth in HR - that's his safest bet for production. BA skills works in progress with dips in CT% and LD%. He has nothing left to prove in AAA, though, so he'll get his shot. Consistent PT not a bad gateway to taking the next step, or at least recapturing his 20-HR '09.


Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland Athletics
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
32838835292.253.352.345.697

Daric Barton 1B Oakland Athletics

Daric Barton doesn't have alluring power for a 1B. He's skilled - perhaps too much, since he hits LHP better than RHP with his go-with-the-pitch approach. Top-notch CT%, BB/K, LD% good BA foundations, but he hasn't delivered there yet. Still young to develop some hint of pop, but that's a harder task following his FB drop. Plus, Chris Carter is nipping. Low-end starter in ALs, waiver wire fodder in mixed.


Mitch Moreland, 1B, Texas Rangers
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4285211220631.262.323.460.783

Mitch Moreland 1B Texas Rangers

Mitch Moreland has hope for a BA improvement; he makes hard contact and showed capable BB% in MLB that could lead to steady BA-HR combo. But struggles vs. LHP may cost him PT. While not overwhelming, his FB profile plays well enough at his home park, which he didn't lean on. Don't overpay for last year's stint.


Dan Johnson, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Dan Johnson 1B Tampa Bay Rays

For his part, Dan Johnson says that he isn't taking this shot for granted. Will the former OAK prospect's profile surpass "Quad-A junkie"? The 31-year-old boasts an excellent BB/K, even in the bigs. He spent a year in the TB system before playing in Japan in 2009. Last year, TB welcomed him back and promoted him following his tear at AAA. Johnson hit .198 but slugged seven bombs in 111 at-bats for TB, playing to his strength in bumping up his FB%. But he has a .243 career BA and hasn't played regularly in years. Consistent playing time may level out that batted-ball distribution and improve his chances on balls in play. Is he thisclose to putting it together? The upside entails borderline deep mixed value.


Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Todd Helton 1B Colorado Rockies

CT, BB/K dips not helping Todd Helton's best asset. BA could be saved by continued LD%, BABIP recovery, but more back problems, declining ability put PT in jeopardy. Late-season HR surge means he might have something left there, but not enough to avoid his continuing drop.


Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5578215420868.276.353.479.832

Brandon Belt 1B San Francisco Giants

Brandon Belt burst onto farm scene and might have a place in 2011 lineup. BB/K enough to make case for MLB contribution. His 30-HR potential might not come through right away, but he's polished for his age. Quick rise through minors might keep him on farm longer than most want, but he's a must-acquire when he comes up.


Brett Wallace, 1B, Houston Astros
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
68816380.235.297.426.723

Brett Wallace 1B Houston Astros

Has pieces of skills but can't put anything together: weak BB/K and a SLG that can't cut it at a CI position. Don't make him your starting NL 1B. There's talk he might lose AB vs. LHP.


Jason Giambi, 1B, Colorado Rockies
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
12411265150.210.310.379.689

Jason Giambi 1B Colorado Rockies

LH PH role, backup. BB% only competent skill Jason Giambi has left. FB% empty air; thump left after BALCO.