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Fantasy baseball player profiles: Mixed - Starting pitchers
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Quick Jump: Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles
Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 0 | 206 | 182 | 82 | 81 | 212 | 3.58 | 1.28 |
Tim Lincecum's increased use of breaking stuff helped groundballs, control and efficiency. Two years of giant workloads for young arm a bit troublesome but has repeatable delivery, despite its unorthodoxy. Innings warning adds risk to spending big on a pitcher, yet he's the closest thing to being a first-rounder. Inflation-driven prices will probably add to downfall and decrease profit odds.
Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 15 | 0 | 205 | 206 | 90 | 47 | 169 | 3.95 | 1.23 |
Increased run support and a switch to the NL East add to elite skills. Innings eater's K rate has risen the last two years. Small flyball rise in '09 gives pause at Roy Halladay's new park, but he keeps the ball down. Top-three mixed starter generally resides within the top 25 picks; might be worth it if you can back up your offense quickly.
CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 16 | 0 | 212 | 192 | 74 | 53 | 201 | 3.14 | 1.16 |
Talk about a grand New York entrance. The big man pounded out his third straight year of at least 230 innings. Last season is probably his new baseline, and CC Sabathia recovered his K/9 in the second half. Those climbing flyballs shouldn't leave your head, but his increased efficiency should ease your concerns over his workload.
Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City Royals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 15 | 0 | 196 | 187 | 75 | 53 | 187 | 3.44 | 1.22 |
Improved changeup, polished command helped things click. HR/FB will probably return to normal and wins should drop, but that doesn't make Zack Greinke a fluke. Two-year groundball success points to him remaining among the top 10 mixed starters. Even with regression taken into account, you'll probably still have to overpay for his roto aceness.
Dan Haren, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 0 | 198 | 196 | 85 | 42 | 165 | 3.86 | 1.20 |
Only Roy Halladay has exhibited better command in each of the last two seasons. Dan Haren has tailed off after break in each of last three years. His command was still impressive in second half last year, but hip problems contributed to poor location, and fatigue was his problem before. He's still legit No. 1 starter; fine-tuning, health mean whole new level possible.
Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 0 | 225 | 209 | 80 | 60 | 203 | 3.20 | 1.20 |
It was a true breakout year for Felix Hernandez as his walks rebounded and his dominance increased - all while sustaining his groundball brilliance. Heavy workload at young age biggest warning sign. His command and HR/FB - the latter part of a positive trend - might have been over his head, but his skills cement him as a top-10, perhaps top-five, mixed starter.
Josh Beckett, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 11 | 0 | 186 | 180 | 80 | 53 | 153 | 3.87 | 1.25 |
Josh Beckett topped 200 frames for the third time in four years, making his disastrous '08 look ancient. His groundball rate soared back up last year as he quelled aerial attacks. Continuing this trend will be further aided by new hot corner man Adrian Beltre and shorty Marco Scutaro. Dominance of 8.00-plus keeps him at elite levels and makes him a bargain fantasy ace.
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 18 | 0 | 229 | 184 | 75 | 61 | 239 | 2.95 | 1.07 |
Justin Verlander's K rate spiked partially due to a readjustment of his arm angle. He saves his juice for late in games and showed pleasant consistency. This and his rebound in control can temper his increasing flyball allowance and his opponents' hard contact; consider him a mid-level roto ace.
Javier Vazquez, SP, New York Yankees
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Coming off a career year in '09, Javier Vazquez heads into his year-34 season. His strand rate was well above his career numbers, which makes him due for some correction. He'll have to temper his flyball rates playing in the House that Homers Built. Innings and strikeouts are his best assets, and he'll face softer pitching matchups more often than not.
Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 0 | 210 | 197 | 87 | 69 | 173 | 3.73 | 1.27 |
The dominance blossoming last year isn't unjustified; already a top-flight groundball artist, Jon Lester ditched his ineffective slider for more of his curveball and changeup. He's a bargain fantasy ace.
Ricky Nolasco, SP, Florida Marlins
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 198 | 228 | 96 | 45 | 139 | 4.36 | 1.38 |
Ricky Nolasco's follow-up to breakthrough 2008 well below expectations. Massive increase in innings from 2007 absorbs some blame for poor location, missed spots, "bad luck." Lost in blown-up ERA was continued decline in flyballs and repeated K/BB thanks to huge gain in dominance. Repeated K/9 unlikely, but Nolasco settled down following his demotion and recall. Big bounce-back on horizon, so get in now, while you can.
Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 163 | 150 | 74 | 59 | 149 | 4.09 | 1.28 |
Last yearTommy Hanson's value was great; this year he may cost too much. No doubt he has talent (lofty K/9, improving control), but he benefited from small savings on his home run and hit rates, among other things. Even with regression, he can still deliver as a mixed No. 2 starter, but there are more bankable commodities that will cost less.
Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2 | 0 | 28 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 23 | 3.86 | 1.21 |
Johan Santana's string of seasons with 200-plus frames made elbow issues no surprise. Level of performance before that was, though. High April, May K/9 and solid control conjured thoughts of old Johan. Velocity loss, total lack of dominance and home run assault woke us up. We can blame bone chips. Surgery cleaned him up. In theory, Santana will need a short adjustment period and be back to old (2007-08) self. Cost is nearly what it'd be if 2009 never happened, though.
Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 18 | 0 | 213 | 181 | 71 | 53 | 206 | 3.00 | 1.10 |
He had one truly poor month of control, but early trouble with homers plagued him. Cole Hamels is tinkering with his arsenal to add more deception in his patterns. He doesn't throw hard enough to forecast 2006-level dominance, but it's hard not to think the command-friendly lefty can lower opponents' BABIP. A No. 2 mixed starter that could perform as a No. 1 and is worth a slight reach.
Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 16 | 0 | 209 | 194 | 76 | 51 | 184 | 3.27 | 1.17 |
Adam Wainwright fixed a delivery flaw early on before his groundball and K rates climbed. Used more diverse arsenal (more curveballs) after broken finger shortened '08. Burnout risk: innings jump after lighter year; even with budding dominance, still throws high pitch counts. Grounder-dominance combo usually leads to elitehood, but he's a low-end ace because of workload and durability concerns.
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado Rockies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 189 | 183 | 92 | 83 | 173 | 4.38 | 1.41 |
Ubaldo Jimenez's incredible advances in command and dominance made up foundation for breakthrough season. Groundball efficiency ensures minimal damage from long ball. Making habit of quality hit rate against, too. Only concern: slide in BB/9 after huge gain. No. 2 or No. 3 mixed starter is fair; it's probably unsafe to pay for even more growth, with possibility for slight regression.
Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 0 | 207 | 202 | 89 | 47 | 173 | 3.87 | 1.20 |
Injuries in consecutive years (elbow in '08, ankle last year) add to the switch from PETCO Park to U.S. Cellular Field. The full-time league switch should roll over negatively on his ever-so-slightly rising flyball percentage. Jake Peavy's dominance rebounded last year, which tempers the drop-off enough so that he could fly as a low-end No. 1.
Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 7 | 0 | 114 | 108 | 49 | 44 | 93 | 3.87 | 1.33 |
Chad Billingsley's '09: tormented by mechanical issues, nagging leg injuries and terrible July and September showings. High walk rate looks to be chronic, but high dominance neutralizes that a little. Strand rate fix could bring him back up to low-end No. 1 mixed starter level, but make sure he's your No. 2, at best.
Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Perpetual injury risk had Cy Young-type season. Chris Carpenter hadn't pitched that many innings since '06. You know elite groundball ability and impeccable control are there when he's healthy. Skepticism will organically lower his price, so most are already taking the gamble into account. Here, you want someone else to pay full price. Of course, if you could snag him as your No. 3 pitcher, it's probably worth the dice roll.
Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 0 | 184 | 181 | 81 | 66 | 164 | 3.96 | 1.34 |
Despite Ryan Dempster's drop in run support and wins, his control improved. Though he probably fits somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 levels, Dempster's high-level grounder tendency should aid his approach; his latest turn as a starter has seen his skills stabilize. He has turned into a safe No. 3 mixed starter.
Scott Baker, SP, Minnesota Twins
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 5 | 0 | 88 | 83 | 38 | 25 | 72 | 3.89 | 1.23 |
Scott Baker's control slipped down the stretch, and his flyball and homer peripherals warrant caution. Command specialist hovers around the plate, making him more homer-vulnerable, even if outdoor park helps a little. Velocity increase and below-average strand rate offer some hope; there's plenty to gain if you make him your No. 3, but he'll probably be overpriced.
Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 0 | 210 | 177 | 70 | 55 | 169 | 3.00 | 1.10 |
Fortunate BABIP and strand rate primed for correction. Flyballs decreased again, but HR/FB and homers per nine went up; normalization in one category could balance out upon correction. Dominance dropped again, too, but led to better command. Workload risk looms over Cain, but he's one of the best opportunities for a No. 2 roto pitcher to jump to a true ace.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 17 | 0 | 223 | 174 | 72 | 70 | 231 | 2.91 | 1.09 |
Youth brings typical pitching caveats, including walks, flyballs and struggling with runners on base. Clayton Kershaw grew, however, by not relying on his curveball as much and adding a slider. Raw talent unquestioned; if he isn't your mixed ace, he'll bring a profit. Build a more stable staff around him, and you'll be fine.
Josh M. Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 0 | 181 | 169 | 71 | 54 | 157 | 3.53 | 1.23 |
Josh M. Johnson exhibited heretofore unseen level of BB/9, which puts him in a new class. Several red flags: big jump in workload for right-hander with somewhat extensive injury history. Second-half control fade and rising flyball rate may have reflected fatigue, and latter resulted in HR/9 rise. Has makings of potential Ricky Nolasco (circa 2009) case. Elite potential, but Johnson's 2009 follow-up stands to be overvalued.
Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 18 | 0 | 218 | 185 | 76 | 57 | 181 | 3.14 | 1.11 |
Polar home-road splits and second-half normalization aside, Jered Weaver blossomed in '09. Caution: Weaver is walking more batters, his flyballs jumped back up, and he stranded an abnormally high amount of runners. He'll need to keep mixing up his sub-ace stuff if he'll be serving as the Halos'.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston Astros
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 201 | 188 | 82 | 64 | 145 | 3.67 | 1.25 |
It keeps getting better: Wandy Rodriguez stayed healthy, reduced BB/9 in second half and watched hit rate fall again - part of a trend? How much better can it get? If it's simply a matter of solving road woes, will we see a jump beyond an Ervin Santana (circa 2008) season? Hit and strand rates were best-case scenario. Upside beyond 2009 level is limited. He's good, but some folks are paying for next fantasy ace. Don't stay in with them.
Matt Garza, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 8 | 0 | 144 | 131 | 58 | 47 | 136 | 3.63 | 1.24 |
Matt Garza continues to embrace his heat and ease off his breaking stuff a bit more. Too bad his teammates didn't offer enough support for his second-half growth and exploding dominance to shine brighter. A slight flyball uptick after the break throws a wrench into the love fest, but there's even more breakout potential in the weeds if he can slice his walks.
Ted Lilly, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 7 | 0 | 115 | 103 | 49 | 34 | 92 | 3.83 | 1.19 |
Ted Lilly might not start the season on time; the Cubbies aren't rushing his rehab from November shoulder surgery. Lilly's price might drop as a result. If his reports are positive, you could probably deal with a normalization of his control and HR/9; there's still enough K potential here to buttress your staff as a No. 3 starter, if you're desperate.
Cliff Lee, SP, Seattle Mariners
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 16 | 0 | 220 | 203 | 80 | 35 | 206 | 3.27 | 1.08 |
Sustained groundball improvement and climbing dominance nurtured his '08 breakout. His already low HR/FB welcomes his move to Safeco Field in front of a top-notch defense. Cliff Lee logged ample frames - burnout warning. Control would be the first impact point. The risk diminishes, though, if you wait to make him a low-end ace.
Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 15 | 0 | 202 | 178 | 78 | 75 | 204 | 3.48 | 1.25 |
Yovani Gallardo workload risk hangs over his many improvements. Groundball increase came with increased use of curveball, and dominance stayed at elite levels throughout season. Brewers acted fast in shutting him down when he became fatigued, so he should be prepared for a full year. He could pass as a low-level ace if you acknowledge the potential burnout.
Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 154 | 149 | 56 | 36 | 115 | 3.27 | 1.20 |
Second-half improvements often bolster breakout potential for youngsters the following season. A control freak, Brett Anderson's groundballs aided his summer dominance growth. He pounds the strike zone, which may lead to some correction. The A's will probably continue to monitor his innings, too. He's best suited as a shaky No. 3 mixed arm but might be overvalued; he's keeper gold, though.
Roy Oswalt, SP, Houston Astros
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Back problems don't disappear. However, Roy Oswalt has focused on offseason core strength, an approach that has benefited others with similar issues. Spike in flyball percentage seems a fluke, but batted-ball trends point to hittable pitcher. That and command erosion can probably be linked to ailments somewhat, and K/9 remains steady. Acknowledge that NL fantasy No. 1 is no longer likely, but he's better than 2009. Profit chance.
Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 5 | 0 | 74 | 79 | 36 | 25 | 46 | 4.38 | 1.41 |
Jair Jurrjens hasn't been strong enough to suggest he'll continue to pitch at semi-elite levels. Surging flyball rate says home run victimization will continue to rise, and fortunate hit rate won't continue. His cost is too high to expect a return. There should be safer options unless his draft spot falls.
Brandon Webb, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Most see Brandon Webb's injury as red flag. It could also mean great value for former top, consistently reliable arm. Dominance was on the rise before breakdown, but so was control, so fantasy ace is likely unattainable in 2010. Remains groundball master, though. He'll still be effective, if healthy. Highlight his name.
Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 15 | 0 | 191 | 182 | 82 | 58 | 201 | 3.86 | 1.26 |
Start with a strikeout per inning: Build up your expectations from there for this mid-round boom candidate. Max Scherzer will need to harness a third offering to survive in the AL; stamina and efficiency have eluded him. Chase Field hurt, and Comerica Park isn't as forgiving to hurlers as many perceive. His second-half control growth leaves him on the upswing, though.
A.J. Burnett, SP, New York Yankees
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 0 | 207 | 197 | 86 | 72 | 189 | 3.74 | 1.30 |
You know what you're getting: a lot of brilliance, a ton of what-the-heck. A.J. Burnett crossed the 200-inning line for the second straight year. Maybe that tired him out, evidenced by his climbing BB/9. Oddly enough, he was worse on the road, but you should be wary of his flyball percentage catching up to him at home.
Ben Sheets, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ben Sheets hit 92 mph on the gun after missing the entire '09 season. He comes to a favorable pitchers' arena. Sheets typically posts high-level command, but talent is not the issue. His shaky health makes him a low-end No. 3 mixed option, if you're desperate, as long as you factor his medical chart into your bid.
John Lackey, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 164 | 176 | 87 | 55 | 121 | 4.77 | 1.41 |
As long as John Lackey isn't your No. 1, don't be afraid to draft him. However, his K rate is dropping. Two elbow injuries since 2007 have aided this. Optimism rests in his improved heat last year, but his strike-zone work is becoming more hittable.
Rich Harden, SP, Texas Rangers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lasted through significant portion of season for second straight year. Disturbing increases in flyball percentage and HR/FB, but BABIP was much higher than career numbers. Rich Harden has true strikeout talent when healthy. Arlington stigma might drive his price down often; discounted price will make injury risk and homer vulnerability more tolerable.
Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado Rockies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 150 | 144 | 66 | 58 | 132 | 3.96 | 1.35 |
Optimism from Jorge De La Rosa's improved control in second half mitigated by demons in September. Southpaw showed soft improvement in several areas for two seasons. However, batted-ball tendencies and inconsistency - to put it kindly - say to proceed with caution. Room for more growth, but how much more? Not enough to merit reaching into first dozen mixed rounds.
Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota Twins
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 4 | 0 | 60 | 64 | 29 | 11 | 38 | 4.35 | 1.25 |
Kevin Slowey had successful wrist surgery in offseason. Frequent flyballs will probably haunt him long-term. BABIP was high, too, but his approach probably limits improvement. Control dictates his game, and he can eat innings; dominance growth might make him less reliant on strike zone infatuation. Renewed health points to a rebound, making him a midrange mixed starter with some growth potential.
Scott Kazmir, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 7 | 0 | 112 | 111 | 51 | 47 | 98 | 4.10 | 1.41 |
Scott Kazmir's typical walks and injuries were made worse by his dropping dominance and climbing flyball tendency. Why you should buy: His strand rate was below expectations, his opponents' batted balls were fortunate. The lefty embraced his halo (1.73 ERA) while reuniting with his former pitching coach with the Tampa Bay Rays, Mike Butcher. Tweaked mechanics and a reinvigorated slider make him a potential steal.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 0 | 203 | 196 | 65 | 49 | 150 | 2.88 | 1.21 |
Fatigue from winter play and WBC must play some part in Johnny Cueto's lack of progress and 2009 shoulder inflammation. He improved in control but regressed in K/9. No offseason ball this time. Fresh arm suggests rebound in latter and command improvement. Home runs? We'll see. Price of intrigue - not high, but more than curious - remains. Profit seems likelier. If not, what will it take?
Aaron Harang, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 8 | 0 | 120 | 122 | 58 | 48 | 87 | 4.35 | 1.42 |
Aaron Harang's struggles can partly be attributed to forearm (2008) and misfortune (2009). Appendectomy cut short improving second half. Some was hit rate correction, but he was more hittable. Bigger keys: K/9 and velocity were back on rise, and flyballs began to trend back downward. No certainty this upward slope continues, but he doesn't cost a lot. Profit could be considerable.
Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newfound training regiment involving boxing has Carlos Zambrano in best shape of career, he says. That might help him ease the back problems that sent him to the DL last year. Given the return of his K/9 to 2005-06 levels, worth investing an extra dollar or two to make sure you snag him. He could bring a solid return on a midrange investment.
Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 3 | 0 | 60 | 51 | 30 | 35 | 51 | 4.50 | 1.43 |
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Filthy stuff? Check. Control? Work in progress, but his WHIP has declined each of last two years. Jonathan Sanchez embraced his slider and curveball, contributing to his second-half dominance improvement. Late-season growth often sign of good things to come for youngsters, but his '09 BABIP due for a correction. Lot to hate, but more to like. A cautious late-round deep mixed bid would weigh the negatives properly.
John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 172 | 173 | 79 | 54 | 129 | 4.13 | 1.32 |
John Danks' cutter has helped him since its arrival in '08, but his flyball rate and gopher-to-flyball ratio normalized. Behold his home-road splits. Danks' dominance took a hit, too. Either way, he isn't as hittable overall and can work around trouble. Further groundball growth will amplify his game.
Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 186 | 184 | 86 | 58 | 146 | 4.16 | 1.30 |
Good start for a Cell arm: increase groundballs and K's. Gavin Floyd is offering his four-seamer less while utilizing his slider more. His fluky '08 normalized, but with opponents increasingly finding air on his strikes, there's room for more growth here.
Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 171 | 168 | 72 | 48 | 101 | 3.79 | 1.26 |
Tim Hudson returned from Tommy John surgery and gave no reason to expect a big change in idea of his value. Control returned rather quickly, for the most part. His K/9 has stabilized and may even spike a bit. He should again be reliable, if unspectacular, but his cost is discounted compared to pre-TJ seasons. Many candidates at his level have more upside but are less likelier to hit it and have greater downside.
Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
This polished southpaw with a drool-inducing arsenal wasted no time displaying potential in '09. Brian Matusz gives up ample flyballs, which will be a problem at Camden Yards, but he makes adjustments easily and has the command to make a roto impact early; save him from the late-round wasteland in deep mixed.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Coming clean about his injury and Daisuke Matsuzaka's renewed work ethic should help. Dice-K's talent is being ignored. He has been fortunate because he puts runners on base, but their in-progress work on easing his throwing-arm stress means he'll be more mechanically sound. A bargain-basement flier that must be taken.
Ervin Santana, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 11 | 0 | 195 | 193 | 91 | 62 | 141 | 4.20 | 1.31 |
Elbow and triceps injuries prevented us from seeing if Ervin Santana would regress naturally. As he grew close to full health in August and September, he regained his control and trust in his slider while his stuff became less hittable. You could do worse to round out your deep rotation, as long as you acknowledge his established risk.
Mark Buehrle, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 0 | 202 | 218 | 90 | 44 | 106 | 4.01 | 1.30 |
Strikeouts merely get in the way for this soft-tossing innings-eater. Mark Buehrle also doesn't walk many, leaving him with steady command ratios; he's uninspiring, though. His homer rate jumped - not promising for a veteran 30-year-old that leans on contact. Buehrle will have a bunch of defensive changes behind him, too.
Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 200 | 211 | 91 | 42 | 130 | 4.10 | 1.27 |
Most of Bronson Arroyo's 2009 gains are tied to low BABIP against. His command has decreased for three straight years. K/9 fell off table, but reined in declining control. Relied on slider more, reminiscent of 2004-06. HR/9 on rise flyball decline; rectification would mildly offset reversion in runners allowed. Reliable for PT - carpal tunnel not a worry - and double-digit wins, but NL players should watch for 2009-based inflation.
Jeff Niemann, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 8 | 0 | 115 | 106 | 48 | 36 | 88 | 3.76 | 1.23 |
The innings-eating Jeff Niemann was efficient for most of his rookie season. The whiff isn't his best friend yet, but his September growth shows what he can do; employing his newfound splitter more often may help their relationship. He'll need to quell line drives to give us more confidence, but Niemann can still round out a deep mixed staff with more upside than most of his late-round competition. He's a No. 3 AL-only arm, too.
Randy Wolf, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lucky BABIP and strand rate huge targets for correction. Dominance has dropped in each of last two years, returning to Randy Wolf's career norms. Moves to more favorable homer park, making flyball jump scarier. Control improvement was nice, but his margin for error is thin with that reliance. A non-upside pick but a decent settle option to round out deep staffs.
Derek Lowe, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
The sinkerballer's GB/FB has been declining for three straight years. Derek Lowe's control (2.91 BB/9) tanked; 2008 BB/9 hid negative trend there. Some bad luck bit him, too, but bottoming out of dominance raises red flag. He found some mechanical flaws this offseason that might have been contributed to his down year. His cost shouldn't be high, but his return likely isn't, either.
Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 0 | 182 | 170 | 82 | 66 | 131 | 4.05 | 1.30 |
Clay Buchholz rebounded from a disastrous '08 stint with tweaks in his mechanics and approach, some aided by Josh Beckett, which helped produce a sparkling September. His dominance dropped, but in the process he let his grounders do more talking; Adrian Beltre's arrival at the 5 will help even more. The 25-year-old can easily regain the strikeouts.
David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 17 | 0 | 218 | 182 | 72 | 65 | 209 | 2.97 | 1.13 |
In '09, the lefty had some rough patches and ignored his slider a bunch. The Ray of hope came in his improved fastball command as the year went on. Tampa Bay coaches feel David Price is still growing into his frame; his post-July performance might have jump-started that. Seeing what Price can carry over into his first full MLB season offers one of the biggest profit opportunities among midrange roto pitchers.
Edwin Jackson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 196 | 192 | 81 | 57 | 171 | 3.72 | 1.27 |
Edwin Jackson was abysmal in final two months of 2009, but overall, he made big strides in control - again - and command. Offsetting those gains are luck in hit rate against and move to Arizona mixed with climbing flyball rate, which wasn't an issue at previous stops. You likely won't get him for a safe price.
Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 0 | 201 | 197 | 82 | 50 | 148 | 3.67 | 1.23 |
Dominance is mediocre, but that increased last season. Hiroki Kuroda makes living off control and groundballs. Came back well after taking liner off noggin. At 35, not much upside here, but there is late-round rotation stability in deep mixed.
Joe Blanton, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 11 | 0 | 186 | 206 | 88 | 38 | 149 | 4.26 | 1.31 |
Joe Blanton added dominance to his innings-eating approach, but his approach dictates his K/9 won't remain high. He saw some BABIP help midseason but continued to display excellent command. Spikes in flyball and HR/FB are worrisome, but he has generally excelled at keeping the ball down. Improvement made in his stretch delivery could sustain strand rate growths. The 29-year-old vet is a decent late-round rotation capper in deep mixed, but don't expect much, if any, upside.
Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota Twins
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 7 | 0 | 126 | 111 | 59 | 60 | 129 | 4.21 | 1.36 |
Reports say Francisco Liriano regained nasty '06 heat and slider during winter ball this year. Likely No. 5 starter because he has best raw stuff of any Twins pitcher. Fixing strand rate and flyballs will make the comeback easier. Home run pick that won't come at a discount: everything equal, a mid-level mixed starter or better.
J.A. Happ, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 8 | 0 | 144 | 141 | 66 | 60 | 125 | 4.13 | 1.40 |
J.A. Happ's rookie season value fueled by 12 wins. Warnings come in deflated BABIP and inflated strand rate. See last September for crash back to earth. Dominance dropped in starting role, which forebodes bad things for the soft tosser if luck doesn't hold up. Team still gives him midrange NL-only value, but shaky skills shouldn't be banked on in mixed.
Andy Pettitte, SP, New York Yankees
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Here, Andy Pettitte, try some of these innings. He gobbles them. He still posts OK dominance, but he registered his worst walk rate since 2000. He's better for real life than fantasy – that .301 BABIP should come up - but is serviceable on a deep pitching staff.
Shaun Marcum, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 9 | 0 | 152 | 139 | 61 | 46 | 122 | 3.61 | 1.22 |
Nearing completion of his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Shaun Marcum is expected to land a rotation spot. Before going down in late '08, the righty made a successful transition into starting by pushing his GB/FB up and started using a cutter. He'll be a good dice roll in AL-only setups and is an inseason pickup candidate in mixed leagues.
Jason Hammel, SP, Colorado Rockies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 11 | 0 | 182 | 168 | 76 | 63 | 158 | 3.76 | 1.27 |
The right-handed Jason Hammel is very interesting low-dollar bid choice in NL and very deep mixed formats. Hammel deserves more attention than he receives with patterns for K/BB and incorporation of Colorado's grounder-inducing philosophy. Latter increases chances of resolving home woes - it showed after break. Only red flag: nearly 100-inning jump for 27-year-old.
John Maine, SP, New York Mets
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2 | 0 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 4.50 | 1.35 |
Shoulder problems - "weakness" - this time for John Maine. What would a full season bring? Maine's ability to limit hit damage has not waned during his medical timeline, but his control has suffered. Righty put together an outing reminiscent of 2007 to close out 2009, though. Why not make him your No. 4 or No. 5 NL starter and find out? Good luck setting over/under on IP.
Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 162 | 165 | 75 | 46 | 132 | 4.17 | 1.30 |
Mariano Rivera, the master of the cutter, passed the pitch on to Phil Hughes. It helped: Hughes thrived in the eighth inning. It looks like he'll shift to the rotation. A la Joba Chamberlain, his velocity was more prominent in relief duty. His K's might take a slight hit, but his upside makes him worth reaching for in the late rounds of deep mixed leagues and the middle portion of AL-only drafts.
Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 0 | 189 | 215 | 89 | 45 | 119 | 4.24 | 1.38 |
Rick Porcello's soaring groundball rate was his key to survival as a 20-year-old rookie. Don't forget he has the velocity to notch K's if he has to - or the team lets him take that approach. Drafters are pricing him at fair value. Beware the drop-off, though, given the strikeout evidence hasn't appeared yet - oh, and of course, his first-year workload.
Kenshin Kawakami, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Kenshin Kawakami might have endured some culture shock last year. His ratios improved as the season went on. Second-half K/9 drop-off makes one leery, but endurance was a likely culprit. Expect extremely modest gains - not enough to make him anything more than a deep mixed end-gamer or low-end NL buy.
Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 0 | 204 | 188 | 76 | 50 | 179 | 3.35 | 1.17 |
Giants brass will start Madison Bumgarner in Triple-A. Minor league dominance drool-inducing, and he continued that in first MLB stint, though his velocity hasn't returned after issues last season. Groundball-friendly stuff should help in case heat doesn't come around. He can be taken as speculation in the last few rounds of deep mixed setups, but he'll give a better return as an NL-only tuckaway. His price might be lower because of his spring trials, so you probably won't be losing much by giving him a try.
Scott Feldman, SP, Texas Rangers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 6 | 0 | 123 | 122 | 60 | 34 | 90 | 4.39 | 1.27 |
Embracing his cutter helped Scott Feldman increase his shaky dominance to, well, slightly less questionable levels. Win total inflated his value. Rangers' philosophy has helped their arms overall, but lack of K's points to a comedown. Mixed owners should pass until after the draft, but AL drafters could take a low-end stab to fill out their rotation.
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 18 | 0 | 207 | 168 | 69 | 66 | 230 | 3.00 | 1.13 |
Drafters haven't inflated his value much yet. Upper-90s velocity should shorten his timetable even with him starting the season in the minors. The Nats expressed mild concerns about his delivery this offseason, but they're not going to baby him; he's close to being ready. Strasburg's late-round ADP and value don't shun an extra buck or two on a gamble selection. He's polished, so the biggest worries at that price are how long he'll stay on the farm and the possibility of early rough patches.
Joel Pineiro, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 175 | 163 | 78 | 69 | 135 | 4.01 | 1.33 |
The next in a line of polished, nurtured Rays prospects, Wade Davis shined in his six-start stint last year, showing mature command. His innings won't be limited even with the No. 5 rotation job. Davis is a high-level deep-league arm that's worth grabbing a round early in the final stanzas.
Erik Bedard, SP, Seattle Mariners
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 6 | 0 | 120 | 114 | 60 | 52 | 114 | 4.50 | 1.38 |
Erik Bedard might not see a major league mound until midseason, but he insists he'll start a game in May. History would side with the former. You know the K ability is there. If you can stash him and draft him at a fair late-round price, try it, but work around it. Don't pay for more than 100 innings.
Kevin Correia, SP, San Diego Padres
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 9 | 0 | 164 | 179 | 82 | 45 | 87 | 4.50 | 1.37 |
Improved balance from adjusted mechanics helped jack up Kevin Correia's groundball rate and increase his strand rate. Flyballs have dropped in three straight years. Pitches to contact but is in one of the best parks for that. A suitable midrange NL-only hurler. Just don't count on 12 wins again.
Randy Wells, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sparkling Triple-A control the last two years was the only sign to predict Randy Wells' '09 brilliance. He made a living off grounders, too. He doesn't strike out many batters, though, relying too much on control. Based on his farm history, Wells' HR/9 was extremely fortunate. Don't pay for a repeat of his fortune.
Brett Myers, SP, Houston Astros
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 9 | 0 | 183 | 191 | 85 | 46 | 115 | 4.18 | 1.30 |
Flyballs have doomed Brett Myers. His new park doesn't help much. His fastball has become extremely hittable. Reasons for optimism as a post-draft pickup: His awfulness last year was partially caused by a hip problem that was fixed by surgery. He'll be a dice roll in deep leagues.
Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 188 | 178 | 80 | 44 | 155 | 3.83 | 1.18 |
Addition of a splitter and more offspeed pitches helped Homer Bailey to 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA over last nine starts. Still young and has improved attitude. Control is improving, along with dominance; rumored mid-90s velocity finally showed up. Cost may have risen with potential for profit, which, of course, limits potential profit. Pay for only very modest gains for now.
Brad Penny, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brad Penny admitting he pitches to contact must've pleased pitching coach Dave Duncan, who could make Penny the next Joel Pineiro. Penny loved coming to the NL last year, where his approach and hard fastball play better. He knows how to eat innings; Duncan gives him a chance to become more efficient, a long-standing quandary for Penny. Oozes sleeper potential but will probably be more expensive in NL-onlys.
Paul Maholm, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 177 | 173 | 75 | 54 | 124 | 3.81 | 1.28 |
Control fuels Paul Maholm's game; strikeouts are lean. BABIP correction brought him back to earth after sparkling '08. He can gobble innings, though, making him a valuable mid-rotation commodity in deep NL leagues. He'll occasionally have in-season rental value in deep mixed, as well.
Mike Pelfrey, SP, New York Mets
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 7 | 0 | 165 | 178 | 74 | 55 | 89 | 4.04 | 1.41 |
Mike Pelfrey's control ballooned after improvement in second half of 2008. Hitters tortured Pelfrey in 2009, but lost is some improvement in command and an unfortunate hit rate. If groundball rate continues its ascension, infield defense returns to form (well, is healthy) and dominance rises again.... A possible value.
Gil Meche, SP, Kansas City Royals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Gil Meche hit the groundballs running, but back and shoulder injuries, along with arm fatigue, stalled him. Strand rate was short of career norms, so that should improve and supplement his OK dominance. He's fighting shoulder issues and might miss time to start the season, but he's an arm with relatively stable skills that could fill out a deep bench, mixed or AL.
Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 12 | 0 | 176 | 176 | 85 | 70 | 115 | 4.35 | 1.40 |
Innings eater had a small breakthrough in dominance and control last year when Barry Zito backed away from his underwhelming heat in favor of more slider usage. With his skills leveled out, there isn't much more to be gained here, especially with his strand rate likely to come down. A mixed rental and NL-only staff filler.
Joe Saunders, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 179 | 196 | 81 | 47 | 105 | 4.07 | 1.36 |
Joe Saunders and strikeouts aren't friends, but he embraces big inning counts. Most of his roto value comes from the "W" column, which is an unwise asset to rely on, despite his 33 victories in the last two years. The 30-year-old lefty plays best as an in-season borrowed commodity in mixed setups.
Chris Young, SP, San Diego Padres
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 3 | 0 | 80 | 80 | 34 | 26 | 56 | 3.83 | 1.33 |
More injuries contributed to tanked velocity. Reports are good from Spring Training, and his K's should return to respectability if Chris Young can return to the field. Health risk will keep him in late rounds, which might be the perfect time to pounce in deeps as a last pick.
Aaron Cook, SP, Colorado Rockies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Multiple injuries, perhaps most notably to back and shoulder, marred Aaron Cook's season a bit, but control of 2008 appears to be outlier. Groundballs remain Cook's key to success. Little downside, but no upside. Right-hander is just filling out your NL rotation, with hope for contribution in W's to offset hit in WHIP.
Jason Marquis, SP, Washington Nationals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 9 | 0 | 143 | 155 | 67 | 47 | 97 | 4.22 | 1.41 |
A pitcher reliant on wins for roto value doesn't help himself by going to Washington. Jason Marquis pitches to contact and rarely strikes out anyone. His groundballs spiked in Colorado last year - this helps someone who pitches to contact, but he moves to a shakier defense. Leave him for the post-draft pool.
Marc Rzepczynski, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Marc Rzepczynski achieves dominance through deception, not power. Groundballs dictate his game. If he keeps putting himself in trouble with his walk rate, though, he'll be in line for a serious correction. Warning signs are there, and he doesn't have a rotation spot locked in yet. He's deep-league intriguing, but don't chase him.
Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Baltimore Orioles
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 10 | 0 | 201 | 217 | 96 | 57 | 118 | 4.30 | 1.36 |
What you will get from Jeremy Guthrie: around 200 innings, little dominance and too many homers allowed. His BABIP and strand rate outliers caught up with him in '09. It's hard to count on an arm whose K/9 hovers around 5.00. His innings consistency is more valuable in ALs.
Brandon Morrow, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 0 | 184 | 168 | 76 | 61 | 169 | 3.72 | 1.24 |
The Jays reportedly want him to start; defining his role will help. Brandon Morrow's Joba-like handling has stunted his growth, but his strikeout ability has weathered the storm. Getting control in line and re-incorporating his changeup will give him leg up in rotation competition. Potential high reward in deep leagues for much less risk than '09 price.
Fausto Carmona, SP, Cleveland Indians
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 7 | 0 | 145 | 157 | 70 | 47 | 89 | 4.34 | 1.41 |
Groundball-reliant, dominance-light righty performed well in winter ball, making some adjustments that reportedly improved his sinking fastball and slider. Fausto Carmona's slight uptick in strikeouts and hugely lucky BABIP spiked his value in '07. It would take similar circumstances now. However, his strand rate has been an issue in the last two seasons - a mature approach with runners on base would help make him valuable in-season. Put him on your mixed watch list and take a late stab on him in AL-only end-games. In mono, he could be cheap gold.
Kevin Millwood, SP, Baltimore Orioles
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
This move should help groom the O's young arms, but it doesn't do anything for Kevin Millwood's already questionable value. For someone who doesn't record many K's, he doesn't induce all that many grounders. He attacks the strike zone. That .277 BABIP should come back to normal, meaning he should be left out of most mixed drafts.
Mat Latos, SP, San Diego Padres
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 15 | 0 | 202 | 171 | 75 | 57 | 177 | 3.34 | 1.13 |
Rotation spot likely. Was fast-tracked and jumped over Triple-A before debut stint last year. Pads shut him down late in the season to preserve him. Displayed promising dominance considering his hurried program. Flyball rate disconcerting even with him pitching at PETCO Park. Typical rookie bumps, including control, shouldn't discourage you from making him an upside pick in the late stanzas of deep mixed.
Jon Garland, SP, San Diego Padres
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 4 | 0 | 82 | 86 | 41 | 30 | 43 | 4.50 | 1.41 |
Jon Garland eats innings through groundballs. Adding a cutter helped. His skills show no sign of growing despite his new pitch, though. His value comes from wins, which the Pads aren't keen on. NL drafters should keep him on their end-game list.
Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 4 | 0 | 66 | 62 | 33 | 30 | 50 | 4.50 | 1.39 |
Post-hyper a front-runner for rotation spot. Ricky Romero's changeup-fueled breakout was halted by injury and a hard strand rate correction from which he never recovered. Command remains an issue, but dominance potential remains. Al-only drafters should know his name first; you can get away with leaving him for the post-mixed-draft pool.
Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections
| W | SV | IP | H | ER | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 15 | 0 | 203 | 200 | 84 | 71 | 155 | 3.72 | 1.33 |
He's a less dominant version of Brett Anderson. Trevor Cahill has excellent groundball inducement but also suffered from homer issues. He was fast-tracked to the bigs and is probably a year away from being a legit contributor. AL-only pickers should probably pay an extra buck to see what he can do this year.