Who are Yu … Darvish?

Hope Yu is more like Lewis ...

Imports always feature more allure - bootleg concerts, beers, women ... there's just something untapped about them we desire to explore. If some reports hold up, the fantasy baseball world might get another one next season: Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish, who has posted a torrid career for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters and is considered by many the best hurler prospect ever in his country. Commence the hype machine. While watching him pitch, it's hard to pause it.

The live arm won't decide on his future until the end of the Nippon Professional Baseball season. In order to gain Major League Baseball employ in 2012, Darvish, who isn't a free agent until after 2014, must be granted a posting process for Major League Baseball teams, like the one Daisuke Matsuzaka underwent in late 2006. Darvish would then have a 30-day window to negotiate with the winning MLB post bidder. The engaging squads could include the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays, each having shown some degree of interest already.

... and less like Dice-K

The right-hander carries two sliders to go along with a fastball that hits the high 90s. Some records credit him with as many as seven commandable pitches, including the Shuuto, which is similar to a two-seamer. Impressive. He'll turn 26 next August; if he jumps to the bigs, he'd be younger than Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hiroki Kuroda and Colby Lewis were at their recent MLB arrivals. (Junichi Tazawa, who still has promise but not a defined role, was 22 when the Red Sox snatched him away from the NPB draft before the 2009 season.)

The minute any American pro contract ink starts to dry, Darvish will become one of the hottest and most unknown commodities in fantasy drafts. Examining pitchers coming over from the Land of the Rising Sun has hardly been an exact science. For every Lewis, Kuroda and Good Matsuzaka, there has been a Hideki Irabu (RIP), Kei Igawa, Kazuhisa Ishii ... and Bad Matsuzaka; funny how that last one worked out.

Trend?

Generally, pitchers that come over following experience in Japanese baseball have pinpoint control and frequently pelt the strike zone, at least at first if not throughout their career. The typically low walk rates haven't necessarily come with a dominant K/9 like those Darvish has posted. Some pitchers may lean on contact more than others; Darvish might not have that dependency thanks to his bigger velocity.

The three latest big-name rubber-toeing imports relate closely to the current scouting trends, making them worthy comparison foci. Lewis' approach transformed when the formerly washed up major leaguer added a cut fastball and slider while also developing a more compact arm angle and repeatable delivery. In his two post-Japan MLB seasons, Lewis has stood among the league leaders in first-strike percentage - aggressive zone attacking, if not all the time, even if just to give him an early at-bat advantage.

Matsuzaka showed similar elements in his early years. Kuroda, despite relying less on the strikeout than the other two, boasts similar attributes in painting the black with an efficient brush stroke. Lewis and Matsuzaka are fly-ball-heavy arms. Before his precipitous drop in 2011, Kuroda showcased of the more grounder-friendly approaches in baseball. Darvish could probably command just as much worm-burning frequency if his Shuuto, in some form, successfully crosses the Pacific.

Concerns

Can Darvish overpower homer-friendly major league hitters? Orel Hershiser's observations on Darvish's fastball during 2009's World Baseball Classic may need re-examining:

The negative, for me, when I watch Darvish is that while his fastball has very good tail, it's pretty flat. When it leaves his hand, the angle of trajectory is straight. The ball comes out very level and that means it'll stay on the plane of the bat a little longer as well. There are guys that have been successful with that, but it just means you have to be a little more accurate and a little more deceptive on the mound.

Though Darvish might have improved his fastball since then, Hershisher pinpoints the possibility of Darvish struggling from being too fine with his pitches. Observe the similarities between the mechanics of Matsuzaka, Kuroda and Darvish. For the most part, Darvish's delivery is relatively easy. But note the way they cup the ball and snap their arms when delivering the pitch. Such action permits additional guidance on breaking pitches and often yields palpable tailing action. That extra, sometimes violent arm movement engrained in Darvish's efforts might not be a problem immediately. But there's a little bit of herky-jerkiness there that could lead to arm (elbow?) maladies.

Though conditioning problems contributed to his issues, Dice-K became increasingly inefficient with his pitches and zone-hitting as his career waned. He had become a nerve-wracking nibbler before undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. Though Lewis was still an effective fantasy arm, his K/9 dropped by more than a full whiff from 2010.

When putting your expectations for import pitchers into context, you have to at least acknowledge such trends, especially when those you're comparing him to hold so many similarities in baseball upbringing and mechanics. It's still a cautionary reminder for you long-term contract leaguers.

When MLB teams gather enough tape on Darvish, the hurler must adjust. Dice-K has had trouble doing that. Lewis and Kuroda have not. Maintaining composure, mixing his pitches, sustaining aggressiveness and using more of his hips in his delivery should serve Darvish well in the long term if he comes over this way. But if, say, he doesn't travel to the majors for another few years, this problem will be worth re-examining, based on his Japanese usage and results.

Expectations

Admittedly, this is hardly a dissertation on Japanese arms; for any historical nuggets, I'm seeking counsel from topical sites that are closer to the beat. But knowing the fantasy baseball scope of these arms can properly identify what they mean for your league's perceived and actual worth.

To say Darvish will emulate Dice-K, Kuroda and Lewis is hardly complete, especially since it looks like he has the best power stuff among this group. His ace potential is likely greater than what those pitchers held upon their arrivals. Strikeouts are worth taking a chance on - especially somewhat established dominance that major leaguers haven't seen yet.

He might see some minor league time in early 2012 if he joins an organization, but his arsenal is probably major-league ready. In mixed leagues, an MLB-bound Darvish can't be drafted as anything more than a No. 4 or 5 starting pitcher, along the same lines of what Lewis was when he resurfaced in 2010. What team scoops him up will probably allow for a margin of growth or decrease in value.

We'll have more on his stock with any further developments, but Darvish's reward could be huge, with a K/9 of anywhere from 7.00 to the mid-8.00s, with a BB/9 likely no higher than 2.50. Problem is some might pay for him as if he's an already-established fantasy SP1 or 2. If he becomes eligible for 2012 single-year setups, Darvish should only be a fantasy baseball accessory, not a centerpiece.

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