Fantasy baseball: not afraid to travel Matt Holliday road

I've seen a lot of negative pub for Matt Holliday lately. Admittedly, his homers have been down over the past few seasons, as his grounder rates still hover near the clouds. He ain't in the Mile High City anymore, after all. Oh, and a certain Machine might be leaving this season.

But Holliday is heading into just his age-32 season; he feels older, right? The St. Louis Cardinals outfielder still boasts some of the best batting average skills in the game with consistently high BABIPs. 2011 produced his highest liner percentage in the last three seasons, and that came while fighting through various injuries.

His power looks set to bounce back, as well. And like the Griswolds, I'm not afraid to travel down Holliday Road. (I'm also thankful that the horrific 80s-ness that plagued the talented Lindsay Buckingham in that music video went away.)

Last year Holliday had a quick road back from an early-season appendectomy; he resurfaced - after only a 10-day absence - scorching at the plate, but he seemingly gassed out in the middle portion of the season. As 2011 wore on, he battled woes in his back (tweaked muscle lifting weights) and hand (inflamed middle finger tendon when he tweaked his hand taking a swing).

You want more bad luck? A flying moth lodged itself in his ear!

2011 was no Holliday

Holliday ain't a spring chicken, but he isn't over the hill. His quick return from going under the knife could easily have affected his stamina, even though he initially performed well. Many have expressed similar concerns that a similarly rapid timetable after an extracted appendix contributed to Adam Dunn's horror-movie 2011.

Funny how that isn't addressed in Holliday's defense.

The wrist injury Holliday sustained in the World Series was a sprain, not a break. The rest aren't injuries that can justifiably write off his long-term power upside.

Even with all his problems, his power came back steadily, if not at elite levels, from May to August, and his AB/HR was actually his lowest rate in the last four years. He hit 22 homers in only 446 at-bats! Adding another hundred ABs to reflect his normal workload would push him back near his 28-homer 2010.

Is a 28-homer season really that bad when combined with his elite clip credit?

He's losing some zip in his wheels, but there's probably some credibility in him bumping his swipes closer to 10; if Albert Pujols leaves, which is considered unlikely by many insiders, the Cards could look to run more overall to spark their offense. Maybe they become a more aggressive basepath-burning squad under Mike Matheny. Even if Holliday's thefts don't come back, he's still in rock-solid position to contribute via his more traditional avenues.

I rarely make the large fantasy baseball draft investment in Holliday - not because he isn't worth the money, but because I typically look for value picks in the outfield and spend big at the infield positions, especially the corners.

Sure, 2011 was a lost season for Holliday owners, but that doesn't mean redrafters shouldn't bring him aboard ever again! Returning to 30 bombs for at least one more campaign is hardly out of Holliday's reach, especially if he experiences an injury-free spring.

Mock Draft Central pickers are a little concerned in their early exercises. They shouldn't worry so much; Holliday still boasts steady four-category production (R, too, even sans The Machine) with the potential to once again be useful in the fifth common offensive column. If your fellow drafters are still scared come March and you're not a devout position scarcityist, Holliday stands to be a ripe value selection if he falls to mixed snakes' Round 3 or later. If Pujols returns and all is right, he'll warrant his typical draft value.

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