Banking on Lance Berkman repeat a Cardinal sin
Profit? Lance-not-a-lot
After scuffling through his NLDS, Lance Berkman has rebounded so far by going 3-for-8 with an RBI and two runs. Of course, his 2011 comeback from an injury-riddled 2010 drew much more acclaim, especially to fantasy baseballers.
Though it wasn't the New York Yankees, this St. Louis Cardinals lineup was a prime spot for him to rehab with his proximity to Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Berkman's renewed lower-body health and improved ability to drive inside pitches harkened back to his 2007-2009 incarnation, especially in his scorching start to 2011. See his improved line-drive rate with a sustained contact rate and still elite BB/K for the perfect batting average storm.
So how much you laying down on the soon-to-be 36-year-old to do it again? ... I'm waiting....
Sure, he hit a whopping .374 in September, but what about the three homers in his final 180 at-bats? Fatigue came a-calling, methinks. You should Sharpie another injury, at least, for him next year, in what'd be his second straight as a nearly full-time outfielder.
More fantasy-relevant wing-clipping stats, per Fangraphs:
|
Year
|
O-Swing%
|
Z-Swing%
|
Swing%
|
O-CT%
|
CT%
|
Zone%
|
SwStr%
|
|
2007
|
22.1
|
74.2
|
46.5
|
47.5
|
76.5
|
46.9
|
10.5
|
|
2008
|
22.8
|
74.3
|
46.6
|
51.8
|
76.9
|
46.3
|
10.2
|
|
2009
|
19.8
|
68.1
|
41.8
|
61.4
|
79.2
|
45.4
|
8.2
|
|
2010
|
20.9
|
66.4
|
41.1
|
58.1
|
79.9
|
44.4
|
7.9
|
|
2011
|
25.3
|
75.4
|
46.4
|
63.3
|
79.2
|
42.1
|
9.3
|
Another season, another potential drop of bat speed ... continued aggressiveness, combined with a potential failure to connect on as many outside offerings, could bite him back. What happens if he starts to lose power from the left side, which he relies on for a heavy majority of his homers? You'll see what happens when his 2010 and 2011 procreate.
What if Berkman doesn't have The Machine setting him up anymore? Knock down those team-dependent stats that buoyed Berkman's bounceback.
OK, so you can write Berkman down for 20-ish homers and ... let's say a .280-something clip. That's not bad. You'll probably get an equal return on your investment ... if he doesn't break down.
Still, do you want that hanging over your head for another season?
Too much downside: You might be hoping for him to break even, which shouldn't be the case for middle-level commodities. If someone pays for 2011, smile and move on. Maybe your room will make him cheap thanks to doubt; fine, if the price says go, then go. At least outfield is an easy position to replace, and deep mixed CI options would probably favor him at the time and price he'd be drafted at anyway.
His 2011 late-draft, bargain-pick allure? Gone. Don't be cruel to yourself by banking on Fat Elvis returning another profit. For competitive leagues, my suspicious mind tells me he won't.
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