See you in 2013, Justin Verlander
'Twas a nice run, Justin
There are small victories in fantasy baseball, and there's drafting Justin Verlander as a bargain ace in three 2011 leagues. The Detroit Tigers' ace will make his uninterrupted 2011 playoff debut Monday, pitching on three days' rest for his first time ever in the bigs. He'll be making the big bucks in fantasy setups next year.
Unfortunately, I might not own him again until 2013.
His arm and pitching philosophy might be built to withstand this punishment, but his 251 frames in 2011 were a career high. On MLB's rankings for pitches thrown, Verlander finished first in 2009, second in 2010 and first in 2011 (3,941, next closest 3,774). Add whatever October frames he logs, and you're looking at an increased risk of gas shortage - even if that's just a slight K/9 drop-off like the one that happened in 2010 after Verlander's 240-inning 2009.
A fly-ball pitcher with Verlander's stuff and home park probably isn't hurt as much by allowing many lofts, but it's notable that he allowed 10 homers after July ended after surrendering 14 in the previous four-plus months. He still doesn't induce many grounders.
Even if a K-friendly pitcher can mow 'em down with the best of them, when that hurler had an outlandish increase in left-on-base percentage and a BABIP 49 points below his career average, you can expect a slight correction. Maybe he'll reach 20 wins again, but betting on victories?
This isn't predicting a total meltdown for Verlander; his smooth delivery and approach will probably produce another strong season. This is all about cost in relation to warning signs.
No. 35 was one of my chief 2011 targets because he fell into a tier of reasonably priced pitchers - the 1As, if you will - that you could settle for while also allotting money or a high pick toward your favorite offensive studs. My mixed ace group consisted of Verlander, Dan Haren, Tommy Hanson, David Price, Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke.
Now, Verlander will, along with Clayton Kershaw and Jered Weaver, in all probability join Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia in the group of pitchers commonly drafted inside the first three rounds of many snake picks and heavily invested in during auctions. Verlander might be taken as a top-three mixed hurler in some circles.
If your draft room undervalues him, go for it. But his potential for fatigue, and maybe a slight downturn, means you can't just blindly expect a 2011 repeat. Starting pitching is the best place to find fantasy baseball values. Given the small sample sizes of their contribution and the dearth of options available, this position has a much lower threshold of fantasy utility and for a breakthrough season.
Verlander was high on my 2011 list because of his combo of reasonable price and high-level skills. With his innings pile growing ever bigger and his ownership fee about to rejoin his talents in the stratosphere, I'm likely to find my top starter elsewhere.
