Jose Contreras can see saves
I spent $7 of my $100 Tout Wars FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition, or Allocation, Budget) on Jose Contreras yesterday - a change of course, since I'm usually conservative with my money heading into Week 1.
You know all that talk about opportunistic aggressiveness? It was time to follow it.
My saves picture coming out of the draft wasn't so smooth: Craig Kimbrel, Brandon League and a $2 Daniel Bard pluck (a "meh" addition in hindsight, even with K's; it'll be a long time to wait for saves).
With Brad Lidge (shoulder) on the mend again - and who knows how long that'll last - it looks like Contreras and Ryan Madson will see time locking the door in some fashion. I've previously written that Madson was the guy to target, and it's a simple speculation to make given the bullpen hierarchy. Well, he wasn't available.
Philly not mad about Madson?
Going for him: His save percentage, which has been cited by so many as his biggest drawback, is quite skewed, as pointed out here. Remembering the difference between the timing of his appearances clarifies the picture a little.
The problem is that might not make a difference to the Philadelphia Phillies' brass, which has frequently expressed doubt in Madson's ability to put out the flames. Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee are typically on the same page in their lineup thinking, which might diminish Madson's chances.
Plus - and I mean this in the nicest, grandfatherliest, folksiest way: Can you picture Manuel carrying a SABR card in his pocket?
Here's that pesky stats versus scouting rub again. Is it far out of the plausibility realm for Contreras taking the gig and running with it? Skills analysis is all well and good for speculating, and it's usually safer to side with it. That has been the frequent argument for Madson.
But if only that were a clear-cut managing factor in real life ... and people could remember that Contreras, who's somewhere between 35 and 60 years old, rediscovered skills as a reliever in 2010. He did the work last year when Lidge and Madson were out and finished the year closing the door on four of five opportunities (his blown save came in the seventh frame, by the way).
So, I spent 7 percent of my allocation - before the first 2011 pitch has been thrown - on a hurler who still might merely split chances for a few weeks. Sometimes you have to pay for what's out there. At least there's still budgetary breathing room and calendar flips to make up for this move if it backfires, but if he gives me a month of saves in this tightly packed league, I'll consider it money well spent.
Fantasy managers don't run MLB teams. Keep the statistical picture on a case-by-case basis. Taking coach speak as gospel is a mistake, too, but don't consider it useless, especially if the content has some history to it.
Some nice, cold drafts
Did KFFL Baseball help you in your draft(s) this weekend? What about mine?
RotoExperts Triple Crown AL-only
I had to pay a little more for my third base target here (buyer's remorse after dropping out on Edwin Encarnacion early on in the process), but I'm pleased.
Grabbing Dan Haren and Josh Beckett ate up a chunk of my pitching budget, but my recovery involved K-happy relievers. With a Rick Porcello bounce-back, which is quite realistic, this could be a deadly arms unit. (Psst: Keep an eye on Tim Collins, this year's Tyler Clippard.)
Fantasy Sports Writers' Association Industry Insiders League II
Looking forward to another enjoyable year of this OBP and SLG format replacing homers and batting average. I won one of these in 2010, when Nicholas Minnix reigned supreme. Third place overall isn't good enough for me.
I rarely take an outfielder in the first few rounds of a snake but make an exception for value. Hence my drafting of Josh Hamilton at 32. This was different, too, because there's a GS limit, so acquiring K-happy pitchers and at least two solid closers become more vital. Mission accomplished there.
Oh, and as for taking Alex Rodriguez in the first round: The advantage he held over other eligible 3B was too big to pass up there, especially given my ongoing Barksdale strategy. Kevin Youkilis? Too injury-prone and not eligible at third base for about a month. This league wasn't one I was willing to wait on him gaining it eventually; I would need to compensate for his eligibility absence at some point, and I wanted to avoid that.
KFFL Baseball
- Drafting this week? Our Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide has all you need to prep!
- Catch Mastersball, including exclusive drop-ins from Lawr Michaels and Todd Zola, to the KFFL family.
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