The relief pitcher: a case of fantasy baseball geology; and Brandon Webb’s example
The opportunity Perez presents
When the Boston Red Sox signed Bobby Jenks, I found myself thinking...
... Jonathan Papelbon. Daniel Bard. Bobby Jenks. I can't wait for the reaction after that bullpen blows a save, if each of those three is still in it by opening day...
The value of a relief pitcher, in general, has undoubtedly become precarious. A couple of mock drafts in, I see that it's only getting worse. At what point is this trend going to work to your advantage?
Saves me a place
How about in 2011? Is anyone willing to pay for saves in an MLB universe?
Fantasy baseball players weigh the many aspects of the value of a player at any position. An outfielder has little experience but is very talented and competes with only one other, far less inspiring choice for playing time. A starting pitcher is injury-prone but owns an incredibly stable set of skills and has been putting his health problems behind him. An aging third baseman has a questionable approach but plays on a killer team and looks just dandy compared to the crap beneath him in that pool.
Any of those pieces of information will affect how fantasy baseball managers value those players. That info helps to determine the risk involved in the selection of those players. But an injury or a bizarre, unfortunate collapse is the only thing that would cause them to contribute virtually nothing to a fantasy baseball manager's cause.
Similar elements help to assess the risk of poor performance for relievers. The difference, of course, is that, once your draft is in the rearview, this is the only question that matters for many of them: Is he useful (in position to earn saves), or not (isn't)? (This excludes relievers who are valuable no matter their role, like Matt Thornton.) This is no secret.
The distribution of average draft position for relievers seems to do a poor job of reflecting the uncertainty that comes with drafting them, however. Like other positions, usually, it looks like one side of a hill (maybe the chocolate ones), with a nearly linear relationship, beginning with the first reliever off the board. It should probably look more like one-half of a mesa (maybe like those in Canyonlands National Park), with a pretty flat top, a steep cliff, then a somewhat linear hillside (with a low grade) and, finally, a mess of rocks where the whole thing bottoms out, in the badlands.
What if you could identify a large gap between the perceived risk that comes with the position in general and the actual risk that comes with this set of players?
Does Papelbon still deserve his place on the plateau?
What if, even more radically, the pitchers whom you'd consider part of that tabletop-tier on your mesa has a radically different makeup from the one that ADP would suggest?
What if, dear heavens, you drafted - even reached for - one or two of them?
We'll have to talk about this one some more. Sounds like something fit for a New Year's resolution.
Bits and pieces
- Our esteemed guests from Mastersball, Todd Zola and Lawr Michaels, have released the post-intro editions of their KFFL exclusive columns "Lord Zola's Mailbag" and "Tumbling Dice," respectively. Check them out.
- Chipper Jones (knee) has been running hills and plans to take batting practice in January. What if he's actually in better shape and more prepared to avoid injuries after his ACL tear than he was before it?
- The Tampa Bay Rays hired former New York Yankees pitching coach Dave Eiland as a special assistant.
Sneaky.
- The latest editions of the Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove give some takes on a few perhaps easily overlooked players in the American League and National League.
Facebook clicks
Likes:
- The Texas Rangers took the Brandon Webb leap. MLB Network's Peter Gammons says that Webb altered his arm slot after a line drive nailed him in late August 2008, and he hasn't been the same since. Is that it?
If he regains the usefulness of his sinker, this will be a real coup. Those fantasy baseball players who invest in Webb must do so with the understanding that it probably won't pay off right away. Just imagine how patient he has been with himself.
***
Facebook: KFFL Baseball | KFFL.com | Twitter: KFFL Baseball | KFFL.com | Ryan R. Bonini | William Del Pilar | Tim Heaney | Bryce McRae | Nicholas Minnix
