The FSTA and the fantasy baseball Mudville 9 dot puzzle

Fit to be 2?

The Fantasy Sports Trade Association's baseball expert league received a bit of a makeover this year, thanks no doubt in large part to the involvement of Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio. The fledgling channel broadcasted the entire draft live from the FSTA's winter conference, held at the Mirage in Las Vegas, this past Monday.

But this is no illusion. Thirteen fantasy stalwarts filled their 29-man rosters for a league - not a mock draft - on Jan. 24, more than two months before MLB's 2011 season begins. League host CBSSports.com has the results. Sirius/XM FSR is re-airing the event daily.

And one of the industry's best players caused a bit of commotion.

Chided choice

Plenty of participants, including KFFL rep Tim Heaney (Fantasy baseball draft: FSTA happens in Vegas), weighed in after the fact. (One, Mastersball writer and KFFL guest columnist Lawr Michaels, made some predictions before the draft; he'll give his thoughts on the aftermath this Tuesday).

• Steve Gardner, USA Today - Highlights and trends from the FSTA experts draft
• Ray Flowers, Baseball Guys - Vegas Baby, and the FSTA
• Lawr - Mock Predictions: How Close was Mickey4081?

Albert Pujols joined Charlie Wiegert's squad. Then, Baseball HQ proprietor Ron Shandler (who, incidentally, won this league in 2010) aroused unrest with his choice of Ryan Braun. Observers (who could be reading straight from Mock Draft Central's ADP report) wondered, Why not Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria or Carlos Gonzalez? Or someone else?

Well, why not Braun? Ron answered that question in his Master Notes column that appears in his site's free weekly e-mail sampler, BaseballHQ.com Friday, each week. A tidy portion:

"His ADP was in the Top 5 going into last year's drafts. Despite his down numbers in 2010, we can't get anchored into that performance. His peripherals were still very solid. Regression is a powerful force and the odds are strong for both Braun to improve and. ..."

What's refreshing about his choice as well as (for now, what has to amount to a) defense: It challenges this perception that many fantasy baseball managers who play in mixed leagues have about players who usually go in the first round: They're not only really good; some of them are so good that they're considerably better than the others.

A dot for every possibility?

They're really not. We tend to hold on to this idea that what happened last year and position scarcity and the JFK conspiracy and the location of your missing sock after you remove your clothes from the dryer all collude to make someone like Hanley or Longoria the clear next best choice in a mixed league.

As Lawr posits in his blog (and says often alike), Pujols isn't going to win your league for you; 19th-rounders like Cody Ross will determine that. As Ron often points out, many in the annual top 15 by ADP don't finish close to the top-15 group at season's end. He believes that the Milwaukee Brewers' slugging left fielder will have an outstanding year. No other player has a significantly greater chance than Braun to do so, even remotely. How is that untrue?

I've learned a lot from bright people like Ron and Lawr. The thing that I appreciate the most about those two and others like them: They confront convention and attempt to find solutions to emerging puzzles.

So, ask yourself: What makes this so decidedly so?

(Something else I've learned: Never underestimate the importance of the quality of your socks.)

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