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2Nov/110

David Freese: next fantasy baseball player to see playoff-propelled price hike?

St. Louis Cardinals 3B David Freese

Deep Freese rises to surface

The St. Louis Cardinals' victory in the 2011 World Series may not have occurred without the timely hitting and general boost to the offense that David Freese provided throughout the MLB playoffs. In 71 plate appearances, he posted a .397/.465/.794 slash line, with five home runs, eight doubles and 21 RBIs.

Some roto players have a tendency to put extra stock in a player's earnings potential because of his postseason hero from the previous fall. That's particularly true if the source is an unlikely protagonist who possesses upside but hasn't realized it for more than short stretches in the majors.

Price Freese in effect

For the second straight season, Freese missed significant time because of health issues but delivered a batting average near .300 (on the strength of a lofty average on balls in play) and a slugging percentage above .400. In 2011, he ripped 10 jacks and drove in 55 runs in his 363 plate appearances.

The fact that he's a third baseman, a position where the well seems to be drying up, won't help matters for fantasy baseball players who hope to avoid Freese inflation. He's 28 years old, but it's not unheard of for players who've been sidetracked by injuries to break through at this stage of their careers.

If rotisserie managers look closely, they'll notice that Freese's track record on the farm suggests that he could continue to be this kind of hitter for lengthy stints, however. As a minor leaguer with both the San Diego Padres and the Cards, the line-drive smacker frequently posted high averages on balls in play and accumulated total bases at a great pace.

So, how is Freese's fantasy forecast and draft-day price going to look as he heads into his age-29 campaign? Mike Podhorzer, who does fantastic work at Fangraphs.com, attacked just such a question at length last month.

St. Louis' hot corner man will have at least two things working against him: (1) the poor hitter's venue that is Busch Stadium, and (2) the probable loss of Albert Pujols from the lineup.

It's a projection to approach with care. Prior to October, Freese was easily a potentially undervalued candidate in the third base pool. His performance in the NLCS and World Series has emphasized his ability as well as earned him some attention that sneaky fake baseball players would prefer that he didn't receive.

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