Don’t Chase Utley down path of high uncertainty

Are you laying out for Utley?

By now, you're a little scared to draft Chase Utley. So are your buddies. And then you start thinking ... Man, I'm not going to take him in the third, but if he falls a few rounds, I could have a real steal on my hands; this cat is still one of the best at his position and busts it to get back on the field.

You're right. You could. He is. He does. Except for one problem: Even then, the Philadelphia Phillies' three-hole hitter remains riddled with danger.

If Utley you believe in miracles, baby ...

Let's discuss an optimistic scenario, shall we? The best keystone man in the Keystone State plays in about 135 games. He hits about .280, with about 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases. That looks kinda like our revised projection. And you should still be quite nervous.

Stephania Bell affirmed suspicions about the degenerative nature of the combination of things going on his right knee. It's uncertain how likely surgery is in the near future, but at some point, going under the scalpel seems like it'll be the best decision. Even if Utley doesn't take long to rebound from the state he's in, he's not out of the woods, and it will affect his performance - perhaps not drastically, but enough.

Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn't believe that we're approaching a scenario in which Utley misses the entire season. That's ... encouraging. Both he and Utley - heck, all involved - want to make the choice that's best for Utley's future, which stretches well beyond 2011. They say that surgery is a last resort. Isn't it usually?

Even Zobrist could be an acceptable Utley substitute

In an MLB universe, there are six who are locks to be under consideration for my make-believe second sacker spot before Utley. Robinson Cano? Duh. Dustin Pedroia. Of course. Brandon Phillips? At this point, have to. Dan Uggla? Admittedly. Rickie Weeks and Ian Kinsler? Definitely those two, too.

They all own the boom. All are healthy as we speak. Pedroia's foot is fine, so say the reports. Kinsler and Weeks remain health risks, but their timelines contain "freak" occurrences, the product of somewhat reckless play. They'll be Utley in a few years, perhaps, but not yet. I'd rather shoot for 20 or 30 ding dongs and/or 20 or 30 thefts with a more able-bodied dude.

But you're not done. Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, Kelly Johnson and Ben Zobrist deserve some thought here, don't they? A .300 batting average and 15-homer power plus great flexibility, some high-end power for the position, and a solid shot at Utley-like numbers, minus the BA, are staring at you.

Please don't perpetuate the belief that second base is still shallow. Utley may end up being a great deal for someone. But are the risk and likelihood of a great reward worth making sure someone else doesn't get to take that chance? When you have your answer, you'll know when it's time to draft Chase Utley.

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