It's a two-race Chase

The grueling NASCAR Sprint Cup season has come down to this: a two-driver, two-race Chase for the Cup Championship. Denny Hamlin is trying to prevent Jimmie Johnson from capturing his fifth consecutive Cup title.

For NASCAR, these last two races at Phoenix and Homestead-Miami - with Hamlin up on Johnson by a mere 33 points - is the closest thing the racing world can have to a Super Bowl.

To make things even more interesting, Kevin Harvick is also in the rear-view mirror (59 points behind Hamlin). Although unlikely, Harvick could still feasibly win this thing by dominating these last two races.

If you aren't a fan of NASCAR, watching these next two duels just might turn you on to the sport.

So, who wins the sprint to the 2010 Cup finish? Can Hamlin hold off Johnson?

At Phoenix

Hamlin doesn't own any wins at Phoenix in his career, but he isn't terrible there. He has five top-fives, six top-10s, one pole and an 11.6 average finish in 10 starts there. At short tracks like Phoenix, Hamlin has recorded six of his 16 career wins and holds an average finish of 9.4. He finished 30th at Phoenix earlier this year, so I'm expecting a rebound in Arizona.

Johnson and the No. 48 car are primed to battle this thing out up until the last race in Miami. JJ dominates at Phoenix; he has four victories, one pole, nine top-fives, 12 top-10s and an average finish of 4.9 in 14 starts there. To get an idea of how good this guy is in the desert, he has only finished outside the top 10 twice, and they were both 15th-place finishes. Also, those 15th-place finishes were back in 2002 and 2005. Look for Johnson to make this Chase even more interesting this week.

At Miami

The No. 11 Toyota doesn't have much experience at Homestead; in only five starts there, Hamlin has posted one win, three top-fives, three top-10s and an average finish of 10.6. However, his success at intermediate tracks makes up for his inexperience at Homestead; 10 of his 16 career wins have come at intermediate tracks such as Homestead-Miami.

Hamlin the driver to beat

Miami is one of the few tracks where Johnson has yet to visit victory lane. In nine career starts there, he has three top-fives, six top-10s and an average finish of 12.6. Although JJ doesn't have much experience at Homestead either, he does have plenty to boast about on intermediate tracks; thirty seven of his 53 career Sprint Cup wins have been on intermediate racetracks.

Desperation for JJ?

In a surprising move last week during the race at Texas Motor Speedway, Hendrick Motorsports swapped the crews of Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Gordon had wrecked out of the race at Texas, thus lending his crew to Johnson's championship efforts.

Both crews are saying the change is constructive and will ultimately help JJ's chances for a fifth straight title. To me, this move seems like an act of desperation by the No. 48 team. With only two races left in the season, Hendrick is scrambling for a way to turn things around.

Johnson even sounded a bit downtrodden when interviewed after Hamlin's victory at Texas a week ago, almost foreshadowing the end to his four-year dominance.

One thing is certain over these next two weeks: Johnson will give it his all and make Hamlin earn his first title, but in the end, I see Johnson falling short and NASCAR crowning a new champ.