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Foul Territory – A KFFL.com Fantasy Sports Blog
31Oct/110

Texas’ pitching tinkering will give added value to Neftali Feliz, Mike Adams

Happy days ahead for Feliz in rotation?

Now that the World Series is over (congrats to the St. Louis Cardinals), major league teams are already gameplanning for the 2012 campaign. You should do the same if you plan on winning a '12 fantasy baseball title.

Your first order of business should be to keep up with all of the offseason moves, injury updates and news. The best way to do that is to stay glued to KFFL's MLB Hot Off the Wire feed and our daily Hot Stove offerings.

Now that the Texas Rangers have lost back-to-back opportunities to become World Champions, what can they do differently to return to the Fall Classic for a third straight year and come out on top this time? While that possibility is unlikely, the Rangers have the personnel to get it done.

GM Jon Daniels admits that pitching will be the club's No. 1 priority, which is pretty cliché these days in baseball.

Texas has had conversations about this before, but Daniels admitted that the team is once again considering putting Neftali Feliz in the rotation. A lot will depend on whether C.J. Wilson re-signs with the team, and he'll receive considerable offers from other organizations.

If Wilson darts for a hefty contract, the rotation would presumably include Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Matt Harrison and Feliz. Scott Feldman proved healthy in the postseason, but the Rangers would probably like to keep him as a long man/spot starter. Feliz clearly has more upside if he's given more innings. "He's probably more valuable to us achieving his potential at the front end of the rotation than the back end of the rotation. We'll talk about it," Daniels said.

Feliz's fantasy value will indeed be bolstered by a move to the rotation, too, but be wary of the pitfalls. As a starter, the K's will be there and can be a valuable asset to your fantasy squad. However, becoming a starter will include a drastic jump in innings - his career high in innings was 69 1/3 in 2010. Will his arm be able to hold up? Also, Feliz's secondary pitches must improve; he threw his slider just 12.1 percent of the time this year and a changeup only 1.7 percent.

Compared to his '10 campaign, Feliz's K and BB ratios both moved in the wrong direction; he posted a 9.22 K/9 in '10 and 7.80 this year. His BB/9 in '10 was 2.34 compared to 4.33 this year. Expect the K's in particular to hover around his '11 figure if he's starting next year.

I'm not arguing that Feliz doesn't have the talent or stuff to be a top-of- the-rotation starter for the Rangers. He does, but he'll likely be a bit overvalued as a starter given his dominance as a closer. Adjustments will be absolutely necessary.

A positive: Mike Maddux successfully converted Ogando to a reliable starter this year. However, every individual case is different, and Feliz moving to the starting rotation isn't even set in stone. Just be prepared to pay a little more for Feliz's K rate as a member of your rotation.

Mike Adams would be the beneficiary of the closer role if Feliz is made a starter. Keep an eye on this development; Adams could be an excellent bargain if you are drafting early next year and the Rangers haven't made an official announcement. I don't see anyone challenging Adams for saves in this case. Mike Gonzalez is a free agent and at best, lefty specialist, ditto with Darren Oliver as a southpaw and Koji Uehara definitely didn't inspire Ron Washington's confidence late in the season.

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