Forget the past, it’s a new season … sorta

Memorial Weekend is upon us, but the NFL labor dispute is not even close to being resolved. Yet, fantasy football drafts have kicked off, and my brain has shifted into risk-reward assessment mode once again.

The No. 1 player on my mind is Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is recovering from a major shoulder surgery, similar to what Sam Bradford underwent at Oklahoma. The Lions' trainers and Stafford himself declare his shoulder 100 percent healthy, but I think you have to be at least somewhat skeptical.

The former Georgia standout threw six touchdown passes to one interception over a two-week span against the Washington Redskins and New York Jets last year. The Week 8 and Week 9 tilts marked his only action of the season following an uninspiring Week 1 effort.

Breakout year?

The million dollar question: What is he worth on draft day? If you are the risk-averse type, Stafford probably isn't for you. However, his average draft position suggests you'll have to spend approximately a ninth-round pick, which is generally when most teams select a backup passer. That isn't a bad investment to make, although you can count on him becoming more costly as we get closer to Week 1 if the positive health reports continue.

If you can draft a steady No. 1, Stafford is a worthwhile second signal caller because of his upside and potential for being fantastic trade bait. Drafting Stafford to back up a midrange passer isn't such a bad idea, either, but recognize the risk you are assuming. Stafford could easily be the breakout quarterback of 2011. For the likely cost a ninth-round choice, do you want to be kicking yourself for not taking that minor risk if he indeed explodes?

Detroit added weapons in Mikel Leshoure and Titus Young in the draft. Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew and Jahvid Best all provide Stafford with quality weapons to rely on. His health should be your primary concern, but don't give up on him just because he has suffered through two injury-plagued campaigns to begin a career that remains bright.

Have a safe holiday weekend, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @CoryKFFL