Why I’m not down with All Day

They - you know, the proverbial council of all that is right and noble - suggest you should always listen to your gut, even when it's not screaming for a hot pastrami sandwich. Go with your hunch ... your first instinct is usually right ... do what you think is right ... the list goes on and on.

When doing fantasy football projections for the upcoming (hopefully) season, I became fully aware of how much I don't like Adrian Peterson this year. It's really tough to argue against taking Peterson in the top three of a draft, but I passed on him in favor of Jamaal Charles recently. That's not outlandish by any stretch of the imagination, especially in PPR scoring, but it still leaves you feeling a little off-kilter passing on arguably the best running back in the league.

My gut says Peterson is in for a down year, but just how poor are we talking? By his standards, last year's 1,298-yard, 12-touchdown season was a career low point.

A rookie quarterback potentially starting is the toughest thing he may have to overcome. Defenses will stack the box and force Peterson to beat them.

Minnesota's offensive line was hardly rock solid last year, and there is little reason to believe it will improve for 2011.

How much of an impact will Toby Gerhart have? Common sense says very little, but if Christian Ponder starts the Vikes will have to rely on the run more than ever before. That obviously means plenty of opps for AD, but defenses will be expecting him.

Another point of concern is the potential loss wideout Sidney Rice. Percy Harvin can't do it all and needs someone to take the pressure off him.

The Vikings' defense has taken a step back, and Peterson probably won't have ideal field position. If he is constantly pinned deep in his own territory and doesn't have respectable quarterback play to bail out the offense, AD could have an even bigger target on his chest.

I'm expecting Peterson to be a top-seven back, but he will be drafted in the top three more often than not. However, I have a feeling he could be so worn down and beaten up that he suffers an injury or is even less effective than I anticipate.

Chances are AD will be respectable, but that isn't good enough for an elite player of his caliber. I would rather Charles, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew or even Ray Rice in PPR formats.