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By: Nicholas Minnix, KFFL.com
KFFL answers important fantasy baseball questions for each Major League Baseball team as spring training approaches. What must fantasy baseball players know about the Tampa Bay Rays?
How do roto players handicap this overstocked rotation?
Tampa Bay put the organization in an interesting and yet not unfamiliar position when it signed stud prospect Matt Moore to an exceedingly team-friendly five-year deal that includes options for the three seasons after 2016. The Rays already have five starters with noteworthy major league experience, so the organization seems prepared to sit on Moore.
 What's Davis' future? |
David Price isn't going anywhere any time soon. Despite the trade rumors that have surrounded James Shields this offseason, the Rays have wanted more for the right-hander than interested parties are willing to give up. Big Game's peripheral marks are due for some correction, but he should be pretty good in 2012. AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson is under team control through 2016. Next up for him is an advancing K/9, should he be willing to rely on his fastball and changeup less often.
That leaves much of the uncertainty for Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis, two right-handers who've been kind of disappointing (by this franchise's standards only, mind you). The Rays have circulated the word: They're willing to part with either of them. But they probably won't take chump change.
Niemann, 29 this month, has a couple of years of arbitration remaining. He's taken strides in his ability to locate and mix sequences, as well as induce grounders, in the past few seasons. Things could be getting better for him, but at his age, he may not fit into the Rays' plans.
Davis, 26, is under contract through 2014, with options for 2015 through 2017. The righty has invoked concern because of his dipping fastball velocity and rate of strikeouts per nine innings, however. He's also failed to make a notable reduction in his rate of free passes issued, and he's yielded fly balls more than 40 percent of the time in the past two seasons. The positive: His off-speed stuff and two-seamer have helped him coax a hearty rate of pop-ups in his career, and perhaps this has been his focus.
Unquestionably, Niemann is the more interesting fantasy pick. Does that change if he's moved? Probably not, although it could easily reduce the gap. A new locale would likely have a much greater impact on Davis. A homer-friendly environment could spell trouble for him, or vice versa. If Tampa Bay peddles Niemann, Davis could continue to grow with the organization that raised him. Niemann is relatively close to being a finished product.
A minor stalling point: The New York Yankees and, to a lesser degree, the Washington Nationals are also in this boat. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have a bat to move but no glaring need for a starter. The New York Mets are hurting for MLB-quality arms, but they have nothing of value.
Regardless, folks should expect Niemann or Davis to be gone. Some team will lose a pitcher to an injury or will second-guess the quality of its starting five. Tampa Bay badly needs an upgrade at catcher, and they probably wouldn't say no to a solid middle infield or first base prospect. Just like the Rays did with Jason Hammel one day prior to opening day 2009, they'll ship one of these less vital arms off. The transaction may very well come after most fantasy baseball drafts have passed.
Which, in turn, could serve to keep Moore's auction price reasonable. The Rays know that Moore is ready to pitch in the bigs, or they wouldn't have paid him. They would've been content to delay the onset of his arbitration clock and promote him sometime later this summer. Rotisserie managers should probably ignore any fear they may have about how much the superb southpaw will pitch in the majors this season.
Said 2009 swap came about because Niemann beat out Hammel for the club's final rotation spot then; perhaps things will come full circle. Wherever he ends up, he could be a decent deep-mixed flier pick if he holds his gains.
AL fantasy owners will doubtless take no notice of the upside that still lies in Davis, but signs of it will need to emerge this year for faith to begin the restoration process. He'd probably be better off in a Tampa Bay uni, and he's still worth risking a few bucks on in a mono league.
And the Rays still have serviceable right-hander Alex Cobb, 24, lingering in the background.
About the author:
KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.
The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.
By: Tim Heaney, KFFL.com
KFFL answers important fantasy baseball questions for each Major League Baseball team as spring training approaches. What must fantasy baseball players know about the New York Yankees?
What do the Pinstripes offer Michael Pineda?
 Burnett: a worthy No. 5? |
Besides the slimming effect? Lord Zola's Roundtable assessed the cross-country move. Pineda has the dominance to overcome a tougher division, but the rate of aerial shots against the 23-year-old stands out with his new home park, the 161st and River NASA launch station.
Expect mixed SP3 numbers. Buy his K/9. Brace for corrections elsewhere. His new digs might scare off your opponents enough that he could actually come at a bargain price, but blind optimism bred from "Last Year's Results" syndrome will make him a less desirable pursuit in many rooms.
How will the fifth-starter battle shake out?
In camp, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia will battle to occupy the caboose that caps the CC Sabathia-Hiroki Kuroda-Michael Pineda-Ivan Nova train. With the run support that can benefit a Yankees rotation member, the three-car race deserves examination.
Hughes put on some pounds following his 18-win 2010 and experienced a painful statistical ballooning last year. Thanks in part to his innings increase, his four-seamer's velo dropped; its path has been rather straight throughout his disappointing career. His bullpen experience might sway New York's decision at some point. However, if he can make the most of his slenderer physique and, perhaps, employ his cutter as effectively as he did during his bullpen-heavy '09, he'll earn another chance to start.
Though Burnett was coddled with extra rest during his late-season rotation performance, he seemed to figure out his approach. Consistency, however, must blend with his infrequent brilliance. His albatross of a contract could force the Yanks to stick with him in the starting five just to extract something useful from him, but Burnett's blowup history will weigh heavily on the organization's decision, regardless of how optimistic they sound about him.
Garcia presents the safest option but won't repeat his 2011. The 35-year-old yields too many flies and can't power past hitters. He'd gobble frames, though, regardless of how ugly they are; that's worth something in cavernous roto circles.
Among this trio, Hughes holds the most attractive ceiling, which justifies a mixed league late-rounds stab. Burnett and Garcia, even if they win spots, should be reserved for mixed scrapheap picks and AL-only filler.
Of course, the April No. 5 doesn't deserve a season-long fantasy commitment. Two future quintet cogs, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, will have to wait to stake their claim until the summer barring a superlative spring. If and when one of them takes over the spot, he'd be worth an immediate deep mixed pickup.
About the author:
Since Tim joined KFFL in 2006, his work has been featured by USA Today/Sports Weekly and Yahoo! Sports, among numerous publications.
Tim co-hosts KFFL's Big Lead Sports block every Thursday (10pm-1am ET) on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210 | XM 87) and competes in Tout Wars (2011) and LABR (2012).
For additional free fantasy baseball news, rankings, cheat sheets, sleepers and more, please visit KFFL Fantasy Baseball today!