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Strategy: Second Half Stars

July 10, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Ryan Dodson

So you've made it to the midway point of the season and you are challenging for the championship, but you just can't seem to make that final push. What is it that can help your team finally get over the hump and seize the top spot? One thing to look at is the performance of players before and after the All-Star break. Different players react differently to this break. With some, such as Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones, they react favorably to the break and put up much better numbers. However, with others, such as Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Gil Meche, the All-Star break seems to throw them off their game. In this report we will mention a few players you could target in your league as the second half begins.

The first is a player you should be familiar with, Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Johan Santana. He has improved in the past couple months and enters the All-Star break with a 10-6 record, 2.75 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. However good those numbers may look, they are just the beginning. In the last three seasons, his second half ERAs are 2.54, 1.59 and 1.21. He also has a 32-3 record in that stretch. While you will have to give up some value to get him, it would be well-spent, especially if you need to bolster your pitching staff.

If you don't want to pay the price it would take to get Santana, consider another perennial All-Star in the Houston Astros starting pitcher Roy Oswalt. This season, Oswalt currently has an 8-5 record with a 3.53 ERA, 94 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. Looking at his career numbers, he has just four fewer wins (51) than he does in the first half of the season (55). And yet that is done in 38 less starts (123 first half to 85 second half). He also strikes out 7.2 hitters per nine innings (K/9) in the first half. He steps it up a notch in the second half and mows down 7.8 batters per inning. This difference was even more pronounced last year, when he bumped his K/9 up from 6.4 to 7.6. He is another player worth looking at.

Moving on to the position players, Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Adam LaRoche came on strong as the season progressed last year. These were his pre- and post- All-Star break splits.

Table: Adam LaRoche's 2006 Splits

2006	Games	Runs	Home Runs	RBI	Batting Average
Pre-All-Star	83	40	13	42	.251
Post-All-Star	66	49	19	48	.323

His numbers already appear to be coming around as he hit .407 (11-for-28) with three home runs, eight runs and six RBI in seven July games. On the season he is hitting .239 with 13 home runs, 51 RBI and 39 runs.

Seattle Mariners outfielder Richie Sexson's .205 average might scare off most fantasy owners, just ask the person who had Sexson last year, when he tore it up with a .322 batting average after the All-Star break, how he felt? Sexson had gone into the break hitting .218 and ended the year hitting .322. His lines looked like this:

Table: Richie Sexson's 2006 Splits

2006	Games	Runs	Home Runs	RBI	Batting average
Pre-All-Star	88	35	16	59	.218
Post-All-Star	70	40	18	48	.322

With the run the Mariners have been on recently, Sexson could be in line for a big second half.

Going back to the National League, Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal stepped it up last year to help the Dodgers into the playoffs. Listed below are his splits from last season.

Table: Rafael Furcal's 2006 Splits

2006	Games	Runs	Home Runs	RBI	Batting Average	Stolen Bases
Pre-All-Star	86	63	4	29	.267	21
Post-All-Star	73	50	11	34	.339	16

Those numbers show a significant improvement in almost all areas for Furcal, making him worth a look as the second half begins. He finished off the first half of the season hitting .273 with two home runs, 29 RBI, 42 runs and 10 stolen bases.

Finally, if you are in need of an outfielder, consider Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis. The break appeared to have a great effect on him as his numbers shot up across the board. His splits looked like this.

Table: Nick Markakis' 2006 Splits

2006	Games	Runs	Home Runs	RBI	Batting Average
Pre-All-Star	76	29	2	21	.268
Post-All-Star	71	43	14	41	.311

As you can see something clicked with Markakis after the break and he could be poised for a big second half this year. Before this All-Star break, he is hitting .280 with nine home runs, 51 RBI, 46 runs and nine stolen bases.

With fantasy success close at hand, picking up one of these players could be the key to winning your league. Keep an eye on teams with potential to go on second half runs as there could be some attractive options out there. The Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics are two examples of teams that, in the past, have gone on long runs that could be the way to finally grab the top spot in your league. Either way, enjoy the ride as it comes down to the wire before you begin thinking of next year.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.