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Keeper Evaluations

September 21, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

With the schedule hitting the wall on Oct. 1, most categories in your fantasy baseball league are likely decided. If you're in a keeper league, though, now's the time to solidify your team's 2007 foundation for some of these categories.

To start, you'll want to take into account factors like the player's position, age, injury history, contract situation and the direction of his team. But the biggest determinant is still talent.

In straight-draft leagues, you must determine value based on draft position. Your league's rules heavily impact this, because some give compensatory picks if you don't keep the max number of players. Some leagues only allow you to keep players drafted after a certain round. Regardless, your quandary becomes, would this player go much higher in the draft next year than where I landed him? If the answer is yes, you have the makings of a keeper. In auction leagues, you must determine whether or not your player would go for a higher salary in next year's draft. If he would, he's a potential keeper.

Much of this will also depend on what your fellow owners will do, and anticipating that. It's a good idea to evaluate their teams as well. If you have too many keepers, look to trade them and upgrade your keeper list. If you don't have many, maybe you should've traded long ago, but you can always try to swing a deal involving a topnotch keeper for a couple of lesser ones.

With keepers, the focus is on later-round picks or free-agent additions (depending on their salaries) that performed at a high level in 2006. And in 2006, youngsters garnered a lot of attention, making them the buzz in many a keeper league. Here's the best of the best, but keep in mind that salary plays a huge part when determining your keepers in a dynasty league.

HITTERS

First baseman Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins | Because the buzz around Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard reached astronomical proportions in Spring Training and Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder had just a so-so year amongst players at the position, Morneau is easily the ideal keeper at first. He busted out (.325) with the power numbers (33 HRs, 125 RBI) that Minnesota had been expecting from its top prospect of a couple of years ago. Drafted in the latter rounds this year, he turns out to be a huge gamble that paid off for patient owners.

Second baseman Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins | Drafted in the last rounds, if at all, Uggla emerged as a top-five second baseman after setting a National League rookie record for dingers by a second baseman with 26 (and counting). He has batted .287, driven in 89, scored 106 times and stolen six bases. Uggla could be a candidate for the overvalued pile entering next season, but he's a hard-working player who batted .297 with 21 bombs in 498 at-bats at Double-A Tennessee (Arizona Diamondbacks) last season. A nice player to have and good trade bait, too.

Third baseman Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies | Atkins - with a .328-27-114 line plus 104 runs through Sept. 20 - exploded into the top three among fantasy third basemen, outperforming New York Mets third baseman David Wright in all rotisserie categories but steals. Atkins was a former top-10 prospect on the farm, but he figured to be keeping the spot warm for his eventual successor, third baseman Ian Stewart (.268-10-71 in 462 at-bats at Double-A Tulsa). Atkins' performance has the Rockies organization seriously considering moving Stewart to the outfield, though. Because his road numbers (.353-14-69) were better than his home stats, there's little reason to think that he won't have another good year in 2007.

Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals | The rookie was an afterthought in most drafts because of the depth at this position, and a slow April (.242) didn't make anyone sorry that they skipped him. But the University of Virginia product had a polished bat (.393 in his junior year, .397 in limited action last season) with the promise of developing power. His .282-19-99 with 11 steals made him a very poor man's David Wright this year. He's battling Uggla for NL Rookie of the Year. The soon-to-be 22-year-old is an intelligent hitter who should only get better. He's a solid keeper, especially if there aren't many hot cornermen thrown back.

Shortstop Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins | Like many rookies, Ramirez went late in your draft, if at all. Like many rookies, he outperformed (.283-13-53 with 112 runs and 50 steals thru Sept. 20) those taken before him. Once considered one of the top names in the Boston Red Sox system, he showed why Florida wanted him badly. Florida has a solid foundation up the middle. With 120 strikeouts so far, don't expect his average to be quite so high, but 40 steals are certainly within reach again.

Outfielder Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays | The club has pretty much handed him the Opening Day 2007 job in right, and it's easy to see why. Baseball America's 2005 Minor League Player of the Year has 31 hits in 87 at-bats with three homers and two stolen bases since his call-up at the end of August. After the bat-throwing incident, his promotion didn't seem likely, but the club can hardly contain its excitement about him. He's worth the keeper spot the longer the terms in your league allow. Next year, .280-25-85 with 20 stolen bases sounds about right.

Outfielder Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox | It's not often that an MVP candidate appears on a list of keepers, but when the MVP candidate emerges from the late 16th or early 17th round after his World Series MVP performance from the previous year, you must take notice. Anyone who goes .320-43-118 with seven steals through Sept. 20 is likely to go in the top four rounds next year. Keep in mind that he's 34, and his numbers haven't been this good since his 1999 and 2000 seasons with the Kansas City Royals. He makes excellent bartering material.

Others of Note

Second baseman Josh Barfield, San Diego Padres | The youngster has solid potential, but there many times when the Jesse's son wasn't worth owning. His .283-12-53 with 19 steals from 2006 will look better as a mid-to-late pick than a keeper next year.

Second baseman Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds | The Reds stole Phillips from the Cleveland Indians, who were tired of waiting on him to fulfill his potential. After a torrid start, he did, then didn't, then did, etc. He's inconsistent, but the 2006 pickup should go in the middle stages of your draft after his .281-16-71 plus 25 steals.

Second baseman Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | With second baseman Adam Kennedy all but out the door, one of the club's top prospects should open the year at second. He has .310-25-70 potential with the ability to tack on 90 runs and 20 steals. He's more of a sleeper though, except in auction leagues.

Third baseman Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox | Wonder why he's not a definite keeper? Taken on average after the first 200 picks in most drafts, his .289-29-93 looks like a huge bargain. But Crede is on a one-year deal, and he might command big dollars. The club has discussed moving prospective third baseman Josh Fields (.302-19-70 with 28 stolen bases at Triple-A Charlotte) to the outfield. But if they can't re-sign Crede, who was a bit of a disappointment up until this season, he may walk, and without that protection, is he as good?

Third baseman Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates | It might seem a crime to exclude the NL's probable batting champion from the keeper list, but he has exhibited no power or speed. He isn't likely to repeat his performance at the plate, but his eligibility should make him a nice pick in your draft.

Outfielder Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays | Nabbed at the end of some drafts, patient owners have enjoyed his .305-13-48 with nine steals in 325 at-bats. Nearly doubled, he looks like a potential keeper for next year, when he should be slated to start alongside Young and outfielder Carl Crawford.

Outfielder Corey Patterson, Baltimore Orioles | The Orioles got what the Chicago Cubs wanted, which was C-Pat to emerge as a dual threat, and .273-14-51 with 42 stolen bases has made it happen. At 27 he's been a bit injury-prone, though, and he's on a one-year deal. He's an uncertainty for 2007.

Outfielder Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners | Undrafted in many leagues, Ibanez had the type of season (.280-28-111) that made him a hot pickup. Look for numbers closer to those of 2005 next year, but depending on your keeper list, he has potential.

Outfielder Gary Matthews Jr., Texas Rangers | When a guy breaks out during the year that he turns 32, an alarm must go off. Matthews has gone .317-19-78 with 98 runs and eight steals so far, making him a top-20 outfielder, but he's a free agent after this and has never played a full season. If he doesn't (and even if he does) return to Texas, he's not likely keeper material.

Outfielder Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies | Holliday may not meet keeper requirements, but he went on average in the middle rounds. His .332-29-100 with nine steals will vault over many washed up staples at the position next year. Those in auction leagues may have a good one.

Outfielder Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays | In most cases drafted in the seventh round or later, Wells isn't a huge value. But he did have a great season (.302-32-101 with 15 stolen bases), which will make him go in the top three rounds next year, for sure. Auction leaguers will be happiest.

PITCHERS

Starter Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins | Duh. At one point his 12-3 record, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 121 innings had Liriano ranked higher than his Cy Young Award-winning teammate, starter Johan Santana. The only questions surround his elbow injury. That kind of thing sets off a red flag with hurlers. G.M. Terry Ryan said that there was a lot of uncertainty about how the injury occurred. An MRI revealed no structural damage, but Ryan later retraced his steps and said that Liriano might require some sort of minor surgery. Stay tuned.

Starter Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Devil Rays | Good value from a 14th rounder, eh? He finally got his control problems in order, walking just 52 this season. He went 10-8 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 163 strikeouts in 144 2/3 innings before shoulder soreness ended his year at the end of August. With a lineup that's potentially on the rise, Kazmir could be looking at 15 wins next year. A pitcher in the later rounds with his kind of potential is a steal, although not as much as the one the club pulled to pry Kazmir from the Mets.

Starter Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies | Hamels may not have seen the majors with former GM Ed Wade in charge, but new GM Pat Gillick saw no point in waiting. After a shaky start, the lefty with the disgusting changeup cut down on his walks and went on a tear (6-4, 3.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 84 strikeouts in 75 innings after the All-Star break). He's a competitor and a likely cornerstone of Philadelphia's rotation, but pitching is all about adjustments, something that Hamels and the others on this list after him may find out next year, and something that the youngsters that appear in "Others of Note" learned this year.

Starter Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers | The likely AL Rookie of the Year pitcher has gone 16-9 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his first big league season, which is more than anyone could've imagined. With smoke that approaches 100, the 121 strikeouts in 181 innings are a bit disappointing, but who's complaining. Owners next year could be; Verlander had never thrown more than 120 innings before this season, and he's not done. Concern about the toll on the fireballer's arm was surfacing as early as the spring, especially after he spent the end of last season recovering from a tired arm.

Starter Erik Bedard, Baltimore Orioles | Apparently new pitching coach Leo Mazzone has done the trick. Bedard went very late in most leagues, making his 15-9 record, 3.62 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 164 strikeouts in 186 2/3 innings more of a bargain. He has a reputation as an apathetic sort, though, and he's not likely to produce 15 wins for the Orioles again next season.

Starter Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | Jeff's little brother proved to be the better fit (11-2, 2.15 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in 108 2/3 innings) in the team's rotation in 2006, although the Angels demoted Jered after his first stint with the club this year to save Jeff's spot. That didn't last. Jered has what many AL hitters have described as a deceptive delivery. Once they figure it out, though, can Jered counter? He's a legit keeper, but 2007 could be pretty rough, especially in the first half.

Closer Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles | Reason No. 1 was that the Orioles didn't want to pay what closer B.J. Ryan (Toronto Blue Jays) was going to fetch. Reason No. 2 was Ray, and it looks like a good move. After going 1-3 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 43 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings last season, Ray has won three games and nailed down 32 while posting a 2.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 49 strikeouts in 62 innings. A handful of saves were outings of two innings or more. He's got the tools, and he'll be valuable next year, for certain.

Closer J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners | It took a while before manager Mike Hargrove made Putz the out-and-out stopper, but how could he not? Former closer and Putz mentor Eddie Guardado (finally and mercilessly traded to the Cincinnati Reds) kept standing in his way, but Putz has three wins, 34 saves, a 2.91 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and 91 strikeouts in 72 1/3 innings so far. He signed a one-year deal in the offseason and should command a few more bucks the next time around, but he and his 97 mph heat will be a closer somewhere, probably in Seattle.

Others of Note

Starter Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners | A victim of his own hype entering the season, he was bound to be a disappointment (11-14, 4.68, 1.39 with 165 strikeouts). Those who purchased the phenom in auctions two years ago will still have a bargain.

Starter Chris Young, San Diego Padres | A late-round pick in mixed leagues, Young turned in a fine season (10 wins, 3.63 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 152 strikeouts in 163 2/3 innings). Injuries are a concern, but another at PETCO should let him produce good numbers.

Starter Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants | Like King Felix, but to a lesser degree, Cain was overvalued. He rebounded to get seven wins with a 2.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in the second half, though. Depending on where he went or what he went for, he could be a nice keeper.

Starter Chris Capuano, Milwaukee Brewers | Cappy was an All-Star and typically drafted in the latter third of drafts. Eleven wins, a 3.69 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and 169 strikeouts in 211 innings leave owners satisfied, so much so that they may consider keeping him.

Starter Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds | An afterthought in any draft outside of NL-only leagues, Arroyo was one of the most valuable pickups (14 wins, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 176 strikeouts in 226 2/3 innings) this season. The NL is often kinder to pitchers than the AL. Don't expect as good a season next year, but solid numbers could please deeper keepers.

Starter Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers | For those that took the chance that Penny would remain relatively healthy: congrats. You're ecstatic with his 14 wins, 4.13 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He must do it again though, for him to justify your keeper selection. Are you willing to take that risk? Perhaps only in an auction.

Starter Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks | Like Holliday in the outfield, Webb is more keeper material in leagues with auction drafts. There was talk of the fearless sinker-baller for the Cy for a while, and his numbers (16-6, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 216 innings) tell you why.

Starter Scott Olsen, Florida Marlins | Starter Josh Johnson was the early keeper candidate from Florida's rotation, but a rough second half has him yielding to Olsen, who was the organization's top pitching prospect anyway. Expect the 6-foot-4, 198-pound nasty southpaw, like many of his young teammates, to hit some bumps in the coming years. But he's the best of his crop.

Starter Rich Hill, Chicago Cubs | The Cubs need a silver lining, and here it is: Hill has gone 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 68 innings since the break. He led the minors with a 13.4 K/9 in 2005, and he has a nasty curve. Expect Cain-type hype, and probably Cain-type struggles, next year. Only a very cheap salary makes him a no-brainer.

Pitcher Chuck James, Atlanta Braves | James has come on to earn 10 wins with a 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 80 strikeouts in 107 innings, doing most of his damage after he became a starter in June. He's got a great changeup but never projected as more than a mid-rotation guy. He gave up a ton of fly balls in the minors, so Turner Field should help him in the long run. He's still a risky keeper.

Pitcher Jon Papelbon, Boston Red Sox | Why is Papelbon not a definite? He probably isn't a keeper at all. At one point he led the AL in saves, and he finished with four wins, 35 saves, a 0.92 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings. Shoulder trouble cut his season short, however, and next year he plans to return as a starter. Uncertainty abounds.

Closer Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers | Seasoned fantasy players know that saves always come from unlikely sources every year. Saito is exhibit A. His 19 saves, 2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 95 strikeouts in 72 innings are outstanding. Maligned closer Eric Gagne (back) should be ready by next spring, however.

Closer Mike Gonzalez, Pittsburgh Pirates | One of the last closers taken on draft day ended up with a guy who converted on 24 saves chances without blowing one this year. Left arm fatigue has perhaps ended his season, but isn't he a keeper? With reliever Salomon Torres (10 saves this month) doing the same job, who's the clear-cut guy next year? Maybe Pittsburgh just has the touch with closers.

Closer Bob Wickman, Atlanta Braves | Typically overlooked, with good reason, in most drafts, Wickman's value received a shot in the arm when the Cleveland Indians traded him to Atlanta. He has saved 15 games and posted a 1.13 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with the team, which on Sept. 20 announced a one-year extension with Wickman. Not a keeper with huge upside, Wickman could nevertheless be in line for 35 saves for the Braves next year, making him good value at a very cheap salary.

It's time to determine who your best keepers are. Is he a keeper in your serpentine-draft league? Well, in what round would he go next year? Is he a keeper in your auction league? Well, how much would he go for next year? Do you have too many keepers, or not enough? Trade them, or trade for some. Remember that pitchers have less keeper value because they're more inconsistent and less predictable. Get ready for the offseason before the season ends so that you'll have the upper hand going into next year's draft.