Orioles Pen Still Settling In

February 21, 2008 @ 21:58:44

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

When Baltimore Orioles closer Chris Ray (elbow) went under the knife for Tommy John surgery last year, the team inserted relief pitcher Danys Baez (elbow) as a stopgap to get them through the last month and a half of the season before he had his own Tommy John surgery. With Ray expected to return later in the season and Baez likely out for 2008, the Orioles will have a few options at closer heading into the 2008 season. Recent acquisition George Sherrill seems to have an early lock on the job, although relief pitchers Jamie Walker and Greg Aquino could give him a run for his money. Even if the job is won by one of the three pitchers in camp, they will still have to pitch well in order to hold on to it. This situation is unlikely to be resolved in camp and could carry on into the early part of the season.

The New Arrival

Sherrill is considered the favorite to be named the closer coming out of camp. He served as one of the Mariners' setup men for closer J.J. Putz and did a solid job. His numbers in the first half of last season, when he posted a 1.29 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP and had 29 strikeouts over 28 innings, were especially outstanding. He struggled a bit in the latter half of the season with a 4.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, although he increased his K rate to 27 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings. His ERA might have been a bit inflated in the second half because of one bad month (August) when he posted a 6.14 ERA.

Sherrill might be better off as a left-handed specialist. Prior to last season, opposing right-handed batters hit .297 against him in 2006 and .277 in 2004. Last year, he drastically improved against right-handed batters by allowing them to hit just .212 against him. He also has just four saves in his career, and it is uncertain how he can handle the role. Finally, he plays in a tough division and with the Orioles rebuilding, his saves could cap out in the early 30s if he holds the job for the entire season. He is worth taking late in drafts as a No. 3 closer, but nothing more.

The Veteran

After Sherrill comes Walker. He was the left-handed specialist for the Detroit Tigers in 2006 when they went to World Series. After that, he took the money and ran to Baltimore, where he had another solid season. He finished last year with a 3-2 record, a 3.23 ERA and seven saves. However, fantasy owners should note that Walker had only 41 strikeouts in 61 1/3 innings pitched.

He has also pitched noticeably better against left-handed hitters (as you would expect), posting a career .227 against lefties while allowing righties to hit .280 against him. Walker also had six blown saves last year, and the Orioles reportedly are reluctant to extend the 37-year-old's innings count this season. Walker only has value in the deepest of leagues where middle relievers and setup men have greater value.

The Other Newcomer

The final serious candidate for the job will be Aquino. He is joining the team from the Milwaukee Brewers, where he went 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and had 12 strikeouts in 14 innings pitched for them. He struggled last year against lefties, allowing them to hit .304 while registering a 1.59 WHIP against them. However, he recorded 12 strikeouts in 14 innings, and if he can replicate that success in a larger role, he could steal the job from Sherrill or Walker. At this point, however, Aquino should not be considered as a draft choice in most leagues. Keep an eye on him in spring training, though, as he could grab the job if Sherrill or Walker struggle.

Ray's Prognosis

With all that said, one should not forget that former closer Ray could be returning near the end of this season. Ray has reportedly been targeting a return in August. If he does return this season, it is hard to see the team pushing him into service, especially since they are not expected to be in postseason contention. They might give him a few "easy" appearances before giving him a few save opportunities in order to reacquire his confidence heading into 2009. Of course, the future is almost impossible to predict (especially when Ray's past involved Tommy John surgery) and with his return six months away, anything can happen between now and then.

If you want a dark horse to grab the job, relief pitcher Dennis Sarfate could be it. With the Houston Astros last year, he had one win and a 1.08 ERA in seven games. He also had 14 strikeouts in only 8 1/3 innings pitched. He is currently tagged for a seventh-inning setup role, but he has been impressive in camp early on. He has the least experience of the players competing for the job, but at this point, he has as good a shot as any of them.

Fantasy Outlook

With all the uncertainty surrounding the Orioles' bullpen, one can see this situation continuing into the early part of the season. None of the major candidates for the job have any real experience closing, so it will be almost impossible to predict how this pans out. For now, the best bet is that Sherrill grabs the job with Walker and Aquino used as left- and right-handed specialists. Thus, from a fantasy perspective, Sherrill has the greatest value and should be drafted as a No. 3 closer. Aquino and Walker are decent options but only in deep leagues. Sarfate should be left on the waiver wire at this point.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

Impact Analysis: September callups (09/04)
Impact Analysis: Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics (07/23)
Impact Analysis: Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians (07/17)
Impact Analysis: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (07/17)
Impact Analysis: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox (07/11)
Impact Analysis: Aaron Cook, Colorado Rockies (07/06)
Impact Analysis: Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (06/27)
Impact Analysis: Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers (06/12)
Impact Analysis: Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks (06/11)
Impact Analysis: Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers (06/11)