Impact Analysis: Milton Bradley, Chicago Cubs

January 9, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

Following their second consecutive first-round playoff loss, Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella all but begged the front office to get him a productive left-handed bat to add to the Cubbies' predominantly right-handed lineup. Chicago's management obliged with the signing of outfielder/designated hitter Milton Bradley (Texas Rangers). The sometimes volatile outfielder travels to the Windy City on a three-year deal worth $30 million.

His signing fills one of the few holes in the Cubs' impressive offense - they ranked second in the majors in runs scored last year. However, the question for fantasy leaguers will be whether Bradley, who took jersey No. 21, can live up to the standard set by one of the last players to wear that number in right field for the Cubs (Sammy Sosa).

Career to this point

Bradley spent his early years in the Montreal Expos' farm system, joining them at the age of 18. He was traded to the Cleveland Indians during the 2001 season, which is when he started receiving his first regular playing time in the majors. Injuries limited his development, and it wasn't until his fourth year in the majors that he finally "broke out" with a .321-10-56 line in 377 at-bats with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

However, as is shown below, he has only ever managed more than 400 at-bats twice in a season. This isn't a knock on his talent as he possesses solid power for an outfielder and a decent eye for the ball. His .436 on-base percentage last year set a Rangers franchise record and led the American League.

Table 1: Milton Bradley's career statistics (career highs bolded)

Year	Tm	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
2000	MON	154	34	20	2	15	2	.221	.288	.325
2001	MON/CLE	238	53	22	1	19	8	.223	.288	.332
2002	CLE	325	81	48	9	38	6	.249	.317	.406
2003	CLE	377	121	61	10	56	17	.321	.421	.501
2004	LAD	516	138	72	19	67	15	.267	.362	.424
2005	LAD	283	82	49	13	38	6	.290	.350	.484
2006	OAK	351	97	53	14	52	10	.276	.370	.447
2007	OAK/SD	209	64	37	13	37	5	.306	.402	.545
2008	TEX	414	133	78	22	77	5	.321	.436	.563
Averages	--	319	89	49	11	44	8	.280	.370	.457

Bradley's eye for the ball has developed over his last three seasons, which is one reason for his high on-base percentage. Over that period, he has a decent 0.74 walk rate, showing a selective eye for the ball. It has hit a plateau at this level, though, and has actually declined a few ticks in the last two seasons. This coincides with Bradley's increased home run rate, so he might be swinging for the fences more often than earlier in his career.

While his walk rate has increased, his contact rate has gone in the opposite direction, dropping to a low of 74.3 last year. However, this is a fair trade-off for a batter that is generally swinging for power. Needless to say, with a contact rate that low, it wouldn't be surprising to see his batting average drop down closer to his career average of .280 in the coming season. It should at least fall closer to the .300 level.

His fly-ball patterns display positive trends. Approximately 21 percent of his fly balls hit in 2008 produced dingers, an increase from 18 percent and 14 percent in preceding seasons. His infield fly-ball percentage dropped more than two percent from 2007, meaning his air hits were more productive heading toward the outfield.

Perhaps one of the most important stats is his line against righties: He hit .309 with 11 homers and 49 RBIs in 278 at-bats against the more common hurler as a left-handed batter. His splits against lefties (as a right-handed hitter) were also impressive as he posted a .309-11-40 line in 129 at-bats against southpaws.

A new home

The switch-hitting Bradley should balance out a lineup that was heavy on right-handed hitters last year. He is projected to bat fifth in the lineup, sandwiched between right-handed hitting third baseman Aramis Ramirez and catcher Geovany Soto. Disappointing outfielder Kosuke Fukudome was the only frequent left-handed batter in the Cubs lineup last year, and he didn't even last as a regular for the entire season.

Bradley will also be reunited with his hitting coach from 2006 with the Oakland Athletics - Gerald Perry. "Milton can hit anywhere from first to sixth," Perry told reporters Thursday, Jan. 8. "When we took off in Oakland, we put him third. He did a heck of a job there. You could sandwich a left-hand bat between [first baseman Derrek] Lee and Ramirez, or hit [Bradley] fifth behind Ramirez." He hit .276 with 14 homers and 52 RBIs in just 351 at-bats during that season in Oakland.

As for a switch to a different park, Wrigley Field was more favorable to hitters last year. However, it was only slightly better than Rangers Ballpark, so this might not provide him with a noticeable bump in numbers that might be expected.

Can he stay healthy?

Arguably the two biggest questions following Bradley to Chicago: his health and his psyche. He played in only 61 games in 2007, split between the Athletics and San Diego Padres; prior to this season, the last time he surpassed the 400-at-bat mark came in 2004. In fact, since becoming a (semi-) regular in 2002, Bradley has managed to take more than 400 at-bats only twice.

His injury list includes a hamstring strain, back spasms, a ribcage strain, a high ankle sprain and a torn patella tendon in his left knee, to name a few. His knees are the biggest worry - he underwent surgery to repair the torn patella tendon in his left knee in 2005 and to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus in his right knee at the end of 2007.

Avoiding injuries are not something that should improve, either, especially with him fielding regularly. Piniella is planning to spell Bradley late in games with either Fukudome or outfielder Reed Johnson. The Cubs won't have the regular luxury of a designated hitter.

Bradley has a reputation of being flippant; remember, he injured his ACL during an argument with a first base umpire Mike Winters. Bradley mellowed out some during his stint in Texas, though. Having a fiery manager such as Piniella on the Cubs should calm down Bradley. Winning also helps matters, which shouldn't be a problem in Chicago given their recent success.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Bradley has all the makings of a No. 3 fantasy baseball outfielder, at best. He is a selective hitter that can contribute in the power categories. However, his signing with Chicago might overvalue him in some fantasy circles. He is a medium-risk, medium-reward player, so those that pick more on potential should take a strong look at him.

However, if you do draft him, make sure to have a capable backup as it is almost a certainty he'll spend time on the disabled list at some point during the 2009 season.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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