Impact Analysis: Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

February 17, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim needed a left-handed power bat; free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu (New York Yankees) needed a new home. Thus, Abreu followed former Yankees slugger Jason Giambi's lead and made the move to the American League West. Abreu and the Angels agreed on a one-year, $5 million deal Thursday, Feb. 12, that could possibly be worth $8 million after incentives.

Abreu left New York after joining the Yankees partway through the 2006 season. A patient hitter, he should be able to contribute across the board for the Angels. However, he'll turn 35 before the season starts, and there have been some significant downward trends in key indicators. It begs the question: How much can he contribute to your fantasy team this year?

A brief history

Los Angeles will be the fourth team Abreu has played for during his career. Omitted from the table below are his stats from two seasons with the Houston Astros (1996 and 1997). Abreu hit .248 with three dingers and 27 RBIs but had only 210 at-bats over those years.

Table: Bobby Abreu statistics (1998-2008)

Season	Team	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP
1998	PHI	497	68	155	17	74	19	.312	.409
1999	PHI	546	118	183	20	93	27	.335	.446
2000	PHI	576	103	182	25	79	28	.316	.416
2001	PHI	588	118	170	31	110	36	.289	.393
2002	PHI	572	102	176	20	85	31	.308	.413
2003	PHI	577	99	173	20	101	22	.300	.409
2004	PHI	574	118	173	30	105	40	.301	.428
2005	PHI	588	104	168	24	102	31	.286	.405
2006	PHI/ NYY	548	98	163	15	107	30	.297	.424
2007	NYY	605	123	171	16	101	25	.283	.369
2008	NYY	609	100	180	20	100	22	.296	.371

Consistency across the board has been Abreu's calling card, and with a career high in at-bats last year, health is not a major concern for the patient hitter. Patience, you say? Well, Abreu is consistently among best in the pitches seen per plate appearance; his on-base percentage has also regularly been among the league leaders.

A fading star?

A fading star? Abreu? After looking at those numbers? Despite the consistent totals, some indicators suggest a moderate decline for the soon-to-be 35-year-old. In some cases, that decline is already in full swing.

Abreu stole only 22 bases last year, his fewest since 2003, but an even bigger indicator is ... wait for it ... 11 times caught stealing. Players tend to hit the wall at 34, in regards to speed, and Abreu proved no exception. He was caught just eight times in 33 attempts in 2007 and only six times in 36 attempts in 2006. Even the Angels' aggressive offense might not save him in 2009.

Abreu's batting eye is declining, too. He was in the top 20 in batting eye from 2004 through 2006, but that ratio has decreased significantly over the last two seasons. A sharp decrease in the amount of walks he draws is the main reason; his strikeouts have actually declined at a comparable rate.d

His isolated power, while improving over the previous two years, hasn't been in the same stratosphere as it was in the middle of this decade. His ratio over the last three years (.167) is the worst over any three-year stretch in which he has received regular at-bats during his career.

An increasing groundball rate is further proof of a decline in power. In Angel Stadium (a less power-friendly ballpark, especially for lefty pop) and with declining speed, it doesn't appear likely he'll hit for much more power (if at all) than he already has.

Down but not out

With all that being said, Abreu hasn't hit rock bottom yet - he still has a ways to go. His batting eye is still above average and high enough that owners shouldn't be overly afraid of any prolonged slumps. His contact rate is on the rise, also, so don't expect his average to decline that much.

A slight increase in isolated power the last two seasons is encouraging; he might not hit as many homers as earlier this decade, but he is far from being Juan Pierre v. 2.0.

In addition to all that, Abreu hasn't been all that bad; some might even say he has been good, even if he didn't bring a championship to New York (note the sarcasm). He has driven in at least 100 runs in seven of the last eight years (2002 the odd year out) and has been a 20-20 player in six of those eight years (in 2006 and 2007 he was not). Combine that with an average consistently in the high .290s, and an in-decline Abreu is still in the upper fifth of outfielders.

How he fits in

The Angels plan to put Abreu in the second spot in the order. With the powerful bats behind him (outfielders Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter), Abreu should continue to reach triple digits in runs. However, it'll be tough to match his RBI totals from New York hitting in that spot.

Abreu is expected to play in left field, though he'll likely see some time in right and as designated hitter as well. The break provided by occasional designated hitting duties could help Abreu avoid any slumps with the ability to focus more time on his hitting.

Los Angeles also offers a change from New York in philosophy on the basepaths. The Angels are very aggressive in going after steals; they have ranked in the top five in the league in this category for seven straight years. Thus, despite declining speed, Abreu should still be given the green light to run often.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Maybe it's because they have trouble pronouncing his name (ah-bray-you) on draft day, but owners are slightly overlooking the new Angels slugger. A strong possibility for yet another 20-20 season gives him solid value as a No. 2 outfielder.

Don't count him for as many RBIs, but you should expect him to approach 100 runs scored. He'll likely find just as much, if not more, success on the basepaths, too - even if it's because he is running more and not faster.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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