Diamondbacks Without Their Big Unit

March 28, 2008 @ 12:17:44

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green

Big Unit Could Be Big Risk

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Randy Johnson (back) will be making yet another opening day start this year, although it will not be in the majors. His first start is instead scheduled to come Wednesday, April 2, with Triple-A Tucson in their opener. Due to a bad back, Johnson has logged only eight spring innings, although he has appeared in some minor league games. This has been due to a slow recovery from back surgery last July. After Johnson makes his Wednesday start, he will have at least one more start before possibly returning at the end of the team's first home stand Sunday, April 13. However, that is still up in the air, and Johnson will take it on a start-by-start basis. He only has to look at last year as an example of why to take slowly. After rehabbing his back in April, Johnson returned at the end of the month, only re-injure the herniated disc in his back in July.

With his late start and early finish, Johnson managed just 56 2/3 innings last year. However, he was an effective pitcher in his second stint with the D-backs. He posted a 4-3 record with a 3.81 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 72 strikeouts, showing he still has some innings left in his left arm. Johnson was most impressive in May, when he went 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP.

However, Johnson will only be useful for your team if he is healthy. At the moment, it looks as though he will be ready to go by mid-April. Fantasy owners should still be wary of Johnson. With his height (6-foot-10), his age (44) and the amount of torque on his back required to generate power his pitches, there is a good chance back issues will continue to be a problem for Johnson. As well, he has thrown 3,855 1/3 innings in his 20-year career. That is a lot of innings on his arm, and despite being one of the most durable pitchers of the past two decades; it figures to catch up with him at some point.

One good sign for Johnson is that he has been working on his off-speed pitches a lot more this spring. In his last appearance (in a minor league game), he threw 75 pitches, with 12 of them being changeups. Johnson could replace his split-finger fastball with a changeup this year if he can get it to work for him. If he can work in those off-speed pitches more, it could save his back some wear. Johnson also still has his fastball-slider combo, which at one point was one of the most feared combinations in the league, although he has lost some zip off both.

The number 300 also could be a huge motivation for Johnson this year. He currently sits at 284 wins and will need to play basically a full season if he wants a shot at joining the 300-win club. If he reaches that mark Johnson would solidify his mark as one of the best lefties in league history. The wins could be easier this year if he gets to match up against third starters due to the presence of starters Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. However, heading into spring training it was believed Johnson would be the No. 2 starter with Haren at No. 3 to allow Arizona to alternate right- and left-handed pitchers in their rotation with the lefty Doug Davis in the four spot and right-hander Micah Owings at the bottom. Where they choose to slot Johnson into the rotation when he comes back remains to be seen, but a lower spot could help out his wins. He remains a valuable source of strikeouts when healthy as well.

Johnson's Fantasy Value

There are two questions you might be asking yourself right now: what kind of fantasy value does Johnson have? And how are the Diamondbacks planning to replace him? We will tackle his fantasy value first before following it up with the Diamondbacks' likely plans.

Johnson is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward pick this year. He showed he can still dominate opposing hitters last year in May and his strikeout rate makes him a valuable pickup if you need help in that category. However, he can't help you if he doesn't pitch. It will likely be mid-April before he returns, but with the nature of his injury, and his age, he will remain an injury risk the rest of the season. There is also a chance Johnson will be drafted more on his name than his actual stats. He should still be drafted in the late rounds, and will most certainly be owned in all leagues, but don't reach for him. If he returns healthy, he has value as a decent No. 3 fantasy starter with some upside.

Pitcher Edgar Gonzalez is expected to assume the fifth spot in the rotation until Johnson is ready to return. The 25-year-old tossed 102 innings last year in 32 games (including 12 starts) and went 8-4 with a 5.03 ERA. He also posted a respectable 1.35 WHIP and registered 62 strikeouts. He doesn't figure to have any value in mixed leagues, but he could have some short-term appeal in NL-only formats especially if Johnson's injury lingers.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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