Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs

April 25, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

The collective cry you heard coming from homes in America April 19, were most likely the screams arising from those fantasy owners who had Chicago Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee. Lee, one of the top first basemen in the league, was involved in a collision with Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal while he was fielding a ground ball, and the collision left him with two broken bones in his right wrist. The early prognosis was not good, and after doctors had looked at Lee, they confirmed what many feared. Lee, who was most likely a first-round pick in fantasy leagues, is expected to miss two to three months.

Last year was a breakout year for Lee. A triple crown threat from the beginning of the season, he posted career-high numbers across the board, hitting .335 with 46 home runs and with 107 runs batted in. Most of the Chicago lineup depended on him. He was a player that other teams had to game plan around, much like San Francisco Giants outfielder Barry Bonds or St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols.

Lee's injury not only affects those owners that have him, but every hitter in the Chicago lineup will take a hit (pardon the pun). Third baseman Aramis Ramirez was batting behind Lee, and he will most likely watch his numbers drop, as teams will pitch him tougher now that he is the sole remaining power threat in the lineup.

Leadoff hitter and outfielder Juan Pierre should see his runs down, as he won't have the big bat behind him bringing him home (Lee was .331 with runners in scoring position in 2005).

Second baseman Todd Walker should be affected by this, as he will no longer see as many pitches to hit. Whether he fails or not remains to be seen, but he is worth picking up if he is available.

All is Not Lost

With Lee out, it doesn't mean your team is totally in the tank, but it means you are going to have to make some savvy pickups if you want to come home with the championship this year.

Walker was Lee's backup at the position, and he should see most of the time at first during the next two to three months. Walker does not have near as much power as Lee, but through Monday, April 24, he was leading the National League with a batting average of .408. Sadly, that is all that he will help you with. Walker is a career .292 hitter, so expect his current average to drop significantly with him facing tougher pitching, but it won't be a huge drop-off from what Lee was hitting. Walker has hit 15 home runs in a season once (in 2004), and his RBI have maxed out at 85 (in 2003 with the Boston Red Sox). These numbers are a significant drop-off from Lee's.

First basemen/outfielder John Mabry could also spend some time at the position as he will be backing up, but he is not a viable fantasy option at the position. Mabry is hitting .316 with one home run and three RBI through Tuesday, April 25, so he does not represent a great fantasy option in the outfield.

The team has also been rumored to look at picking up someone, maybe Kansas City Royals first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz. Cubs manager Dusty Baker said that is unlikely, as they don't want to overpay for someone, which they will undoubtedly have to do to land someone at this point of the season.

With Walker moving to first, it means that shortstop Neifi Perez and second basemen Jerry Hairston Jr. will both be given chances at the position, but it will be more a platoon situation then anything - not exactly ideal for your fantasy team.

Perez is the better defensively of the two but Hairston has been hitting the ball better this year (.318 average compared to Perez's .200 average through Tuesday, April 25). Both will be used on a day-to-day basis, so plan on spending a lot of time logged onto the team's Hot Off The Wire page to figure out who will be playing each day.

Bottom Line

If you are a Cubs fan, this was pretty devastating news but not all that bad, as the team has the pitching (especially when starting pitchers Kerry Wood (shoulder) and Mark Prior (shoulder) return from injury) that can keep it in any pennant races. The team will most likely have to rely on playing great defense and small ball to win most games. Through Tuesday, April 25, they were sitting 13th in the National League in home runs, so even with Lee they weren't a powerful team.

For fantasy owners, this is pretty devastating news. Lee likely won't be back until the end of June at the earliest. Unless you have a lineup heavy on power hitters, you will most likely be behind in the major power and hitting categories. When Lee does return, who knows how he will fare. Dodgers shortstop Nomar Garciaparra's career was derailed in 2001 by a wrist injury, among other things, and he has not been the same hitter since. Lee could return just fine, but we won't know if he will be the same until he takes the field.

Lee's injury means that an already fine line for Chicago's success this season is even finer. For your fantasy team, look for his backups, but at this point in the season, it is almost impossible to find someone to replace him.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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