Fantasy Baseball and MLB News, Rumors and Injury Updates

Who's Hot and Who's Not

September 12, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Welcome to this week's edition of Who's Hot, Who's Not. You've done all the shopping, met all the new teachers and sent the kids off to the bus stop, but do you feel like you've taken care of everything? You've only got three weeks left to take your fantasy baseball comp to school! September call-ups are making an impression, but right now they aren't the hottest young players around.

It's a good idea to monitor the performances of the hottest and coldest players in your league. You don't need someone to tell you that Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard has sent seven baseballs into orbit in the past week. When you look down the free-agent list, you want to know which players are worth adding. When you look at your lineup, you want to know which players you can drop. It's time to find a proven vet that you can bail on and add a overachieving outfielder, because the waning days of the season don't forgive people who are afraid to pull the trigger. For which team in your league are these studs and duds making (or not making) noise?

Note: We've updated the format of this column to help fantasy owners make more informed lineup or roster decisions. Yesterday's statistics can't help tomorrow, but it's important to not overlook current trends either. In the " Forecast" column, we'll describe a player's outlook for the coming two weeks as positive, neutral or negative. In the " Recommendation" column, we'll advise you whether to start, bench, cut or acquire the player.

WHO'S HOT

Rank	Position/Name/Team	Forecast	Recommendation
1	DH Frank Thomas, Oakland Athletics	Neutral	Start/Add
2	RP Salomon Torres, Pittsburgh Pirates	Neutral	Start/Add
3	SS Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins	Neutral	Start
4	SP Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins	Negative	Start/Add
5	RP Mike Stanton, San Francisco Giants	Slightly Positive	Start/Add
6	OF Chris Duffy, Pittsburgh Pirates	Negative	Start/Add
7	SP Chuck James, Atlanta Braves	Slightly Positive	Start/Add
8	OF Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles	Slightly Positive	Bench/Drop
9	1B Adam LaRoche, Atlanta Braves	Negative	Start/Add
10	SP Esteban Loaiza, Oakland Athletics	Neutral	Start/Add

1) Designated hitter Frank Thomas, Oakland Athletics - You really shouldn't wait to pick up Thomas while he's on a hot streak. How about dingers in his last five games? How about .330 with 16 homers and 51 RBI since the break? How about .395 with seven bombs and 18 RBI in September? Hello, we're only a third of the way through the month.

Forecast: It's sort of a mixed bag, with the Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on the docket. He's 4-for-9 with two jacks against his former team, and historically he's hit .297 or better against the other clubs. He's smokin', so ride him while you can.

2) Relief pitcher Salomon Torres, Pittsburgh Pirates - Closer Mike Gonzalez (elbow) had converted 24 consecutive save opportunities dating back to last year, and since Torres has stepped in, he's picked up right where Gonzalez left off, earning in saves in five straight appearances. He hasn't allowed a run in 11 straight outings.

Forecast: It's hard to expect chances for a Pirates closer. The Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres lurk in the coming weeks. It doesn't sound like Gonzalez will get anymore save opps even if he does return, which won't be until at least a week from now. Torres could help you gain ground in a need category right away.

3) Shortstop Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins - Ramirez has been a surprise contributor all season, but he's been particularly valuable in the past month or so. In August he hit .327 and never went more than three games without a steal. For August and September, he's batted .338 with 17 stolen bases. In a volatile category, Ramirez could be behind your push.

Forecast:Two of Florida's next four series are with the Mets, against whom he's hit .240 with four steals. He's also hit poorly against the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, each with whom Florida has one series coming up. The lousy staffs of those clubs should give a hot Ramirez a chance to redeem himself. He should finish strongly.

4) Starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins - Gotta give props to the youngster who ended the longest no-hitter drought in the history of the majors. That thrust him into the limelight, but Sanchez, one of the prospects that the Marlins landed in offseason dealings with the Boston Red Sox, had been spectacular before his no-no. He's now strung together seven straight outings of two earned or less, with only 30 hits in 47 innings.

Forecast: After his tough one at home versus the Mets, the 22-year-old right-hander is lined up for two starts on the road against some pretty tough offenses in the Braves and Phillies. If he can tame New York's road O, there may be no stopping him for the rest of the schedule.

5) Relief pitcher Mike Stanton, San Francisco Giants - The veteran lefty has filled in for beleaguered closer Armando Benitez (knees) rather admirably. Eight straight appearances without allowing a run (only five baserunners total) have made him a favorable option for saves (four since Sept. 2, plus a victory) in the short-term.

Forecast: Benitez has dealt with aches and pains all season, and his knees were bothering him in Spring Training. He's listed as day-to-day, but his arthritis hasn't improved at all, according to reports. Plus, Benitez's ineffectiveness at various times forced manager Felipe Alou to consider going away from him. Stanton is the de facto closer for a Wild Card contender with two series versus the Colorado Rockies plus dates with the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. Short-term value for sure, perhaps for the rest of the way.

Others of Note...

6) Outfielder Chris Duffy, Pittsburgh Pirates - Since Pittsburgh recalled Duffy on Aug. 1, he has batted only .256. But that's a marked improvement (he was at .194 before his demotion), and the Pirates have inserted at leadoff every day. The key: 15 steals in that time. He may be able to help you make a late-season jump in that category. He's also collected 11 hits in his last 24 at-bats, with two homers and seven runs.

Forecast: Other than a home series with the Brewers, the schedule, with dates versus the Mets, at the Dodgers and at the Padres, doesn't appear beneficial. However, if you're desperate for stolen bases, he might be worth the risk; at this point in the season, a low hit output won't adversely affect your overall average, and he could help you leapfrog someone in steals.

7) Starting pitcher Chuck James, Atlanta Braves - On Aug. 9 James started a run of seven straight starts in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer; he earned wins in five of them. He's collected a fair number of Ks (34 during the said 46-inning stretch) by keeping hitters off-balance with precision fastballs. Sounds like a Brave to me.

Forecast: His next three outings should come versus Philadelphia, at the Washington Nationals and at Colorado. He's a must-start against the Nats, and he'd be hard to bench in either of the other two.

8) Outfielder Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles - Talk about a youngster who has come alive. The former first-rounder (No. 7 overall) has stepped it up since the break, batting .342 with 12 homers and 26 RBI. He earned Rookie of the Month honors for August, during which the club moved him to the second spot in the order and then to third a mere two weeks later.

Forecast: August is but a distant memory. He has only seven hits (one for extra bases) in 36 at-bats this month, with no dingers. Series with the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, free-falling Detroit Tigers and upstart Minnesota Twins overall bode well for the lefty, but it appears that advance scouting is catching up with him right now. We'll see if he can adjust.

9) First baseman Adam LaRoche, Atlanta Braves - This supposed part-time player is on track to surpass his 451 at-bats of a year ago - and deservedly so. LaRoche has hit .296 with 30 bombs, good for any player, but he's done it in 433 at-bats. He's improved his average against southpaws from .188 in 2005 to .247 in '06, and since the All-Star break he's hit .365 with 17 dingers and 46 RBI.

Forecast: Upcoming games with Philadelphia, Washington and a floundering Colorado make up for a potential tough series with Florida mixed in there. The Phillies and Marlins each have two left-handers in the rotation, while the Nationals and Rockies feature only one. Check the matchups, but LaRoche is scorching and has hit each of those NL East foes very well this year.

10) Starting pitcher Esteban Loaiza, Oakland Athletics - Plenty of starters have made their mark in the past month (the San Francisco Giants' Matt Cain and the Chicago White Sox's Jon Garland, for instance - but they're likely owned). You know it's September when Oakland is turning tricks and playing " The Contender" with seemingly nothing but flyweights. Before a disaster in Tampa Bay, Loaiza had gone five straight outings of one or no earned runs while fanning 27, and he'd also won five consecutive decisions. He seems to have regained the 10 or so miles an hour in velocity he'd lost over the winter.

Forecast: Loaiza has two tough customers in the White Sox and Indians coming up, but he gets them both at home, where he's been much more effective. Then he's on the road - at the Mariners, and later at the Angels. A somewhat favorable schedule for the heretofore free-agent bust.

WHO'S NOT

Rank	Position/Name/Team	Forecast	Recommendation
1	OF Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies	Neutral	Drop
2	SP Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox	Slightly Negative	Bench/Drop
3	3B Hank Blalock, Texas Rangers	Neutral	Bench/Drop
4	SP Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics	Negative	Bench
5	SP Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim	Negative	Bench/Drop
6	1B Sean Casey, Detroit Tigers	Positive	Drop
7	SP Freddy Garcia, Chicago White Sox	Positive	Bench/Drop
8	2B/3B/OF Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds	Neutral	Bench/Start
9	OF Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants	Slightly Positive	Drop
10	SP Jeremy Sowers, Cleveland Indians	Negative	Drop

1) Outfielder Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies - Burrell has had a forgettable season, and an even more forgettable second half (.250, four home runs and 26 RBI in 148 at-bats). In September he has just three hits in 26 at-bats, and he's whiffed nine times. He's lost a chunk of playing time to outfielders Jeff Conine, a recent import, and David Dellucci. His performance raises questions about whether or not he's fully healthy (his foot and wrist have plagued him over the past two years).

Forecast: It's amazing that some fantasy leaguers hold on to Burrell, given his PT situation and lack of production. Manager Charlie Manuel recently said that Burrell's pained foot is causing his slump - and he needs an excuse. The club will probably continue to field him in hopes that someone may agree to take him this offseason. Series with Atlanta, the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and Florida Marlins offer a hodge podge of good and bad, but Burrell has just been bad lately.

2) Starting pitcher Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox - How much more do you need to see? Since July 29, the offseason trade acquisition has just one victory. Since the break he's posted a 5.59 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, and he has just 49 strikeouts in 74 innings. August was horrendous: despite three starts in which he surrendered a total of five earned, his ERA and WHIP for the month were 6.38 and 1.55, respectively.

Forecast: Can you be happy that he finally made it to 30 starts in a season when the quality of them has been atrocious? Beckett starts at the Orioles, then is fortunate enough to not have his turn come up during the Yankees series (and he's praying for no rain in Baltimore). He gets the Twins at home and goes to Toronto to face a tough Blue Jays O. Accept his fate.

3) Third baseman Hank Blalock, Texas Rangers - In what has become ritual, Hammerin' Hank has lost it, somewhere around mid-August. In the last month he's hit .191 with two dingers, and in September he has four hits (none for extra bases) in 36 at-bats with no RBI or runs scored.

Forecast: The club visits Detroit before hosting the next three series (with the Angels, Mariners and Indians). Some Blalock owners have a tendency to be mighty faithful, but it's still uncertain why. Every year they should thank him for his first-half good times and promise to call him sometime after the break. At next year's draft he'll forgive you, promise.

4) Starting pitcher Dan Haren, Oakland Athletics - In another solid season for Haren, he's reversed trends and completely fallen apart at the seams as the season winds down. In his last four starts (23 1/3 innings) he has allowed 20 earned runs and 34 hits. Amazingly he's netted two wins in that time. Even more amazing: in one of those starts he took the loss at Texas despite only giving up three runs in seven innings. On Aug. 21 Haren became the first hurler in AL history to give up eight runs in the first two frames and still get a win.

Forecast: The Twins (away), Indians (home) and Angels occupy the next three appointments in Haren's planner. He hasn't pitched particularly well against any of those clubs this year, but at home he's still been on point (5-5 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.04 WHIP). Take it start by start.

5) Starting pitcher Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - After a 10-win pre-All-Star break performance, Santana has been disappointing to owners who didn't expect him to hit a wall. Since the Midsummer Classic, the lanky righty is 4-4 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. In September he's allowed 13 earned in 17 1/3 innings. He's received phenomenal run support from one of the AL's bottom-half offenses to earn his victory.

Forecast: Outings versus the White Sox, at the Rangers and at the A's don't look so tempting. He has pitched well against Oakland, but the other matchups look poor. Sit him until he comes around, if you don't cut bait.

Others of Note...

6) First baseman Sean Casey, Detroit Tigers - Detroit's play for Casey seemed like a great move - the addition of veteran leadership in the clubhouse, a solid glove at first, an upgrade over the slumping first baseman Chris Shelton. After a mediocre August, however, Casey has just two hits in 31 at-bats in September.

Forecast: Upcoming opponents include Texas, Baltimore, Chicago and Kansas City, all teams with middling or worse staffs. Casey is often a sentimental fave and solid pickup for periods of the year, but this period isn't it. He does at least have a schedule that could help him break out of this slump, though.

7) Starting pitcher Freddy Garcia, Chicago White Sox - What's the deal? Garcia has earned three victories in the past month, so he's chipping in, right? Wrong, because in the meantime he has inflated your ERA and WHIP (5.20 and 1.38, respectively, since the break). has he posted a WHIP below 1.40 in only one month of this season (May). A recent string of four straight with five earned runs (KC, Tampa, Detroit and Minnesota?) is just embarrassing.

Forecast: Garcia has relinquished his place amongst reliable fantasy starting pitchers. Games at the Angels and at home against the Tigers and Mariners seem like good matchups, however. If you hang on to him, it's only for these starts, and only because you could use the innings.

8) Utilityman Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds - Fantasy leaguers know that Freel will somehow end up with around 400 at-bats on the year every year. With playing time available, though, do-it-all mighty mite hasn't done much with it. In August he hit .220, and he has only seven hits in 30 September at-bats. He has managed to steal 15 bases since the All-Star Game though.

Forecast: Two series with the Cubs coming up are nice (he has hit .281 against them this season), but the San Diego Padres and Astros don't look attractive. The 30-year-old has hit .325 against Houston, however, and he usually busts out of a slump at this time (career .280 in September). Freel rhymes with steal, and that's the main reason you have him. His contributions could gain you invaluable points down the stretch.

9) Outfielder Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants - The honeymoon has long been over for Winn. This year's second half with San Fran has been nothing like last year's. Since the All-Star Game he has hit just .228 with two home runs and five stolen bases. He has just one hit in his last 21 at-bats.

Forecast: It's even more disheartening that Winn is slumping while the Giants are climbing back into the Wild Card race. With outfielders Barry Bonds and Moises Alou healthy and the presence of veteran Steve Finley, the switch-hitting Winn isn't even playing every day. Some fantasy leaguers have hung on to him. Even with two series against the Rockies plus one each with the Brewers and Cardinals, that doesn't seem wise.

10) Starting pitcher Jeremy Sowers, Cleveland Indians - This should serve as more of a public service announcement than anything. How does a guy who pitched nine straight games without giving up more than three earned (which he only did once) and hurled two complete-game shutouts in that time end up on the Nots? Cleveland has shut down the rookie left-hander (he pitched his final game on Sept. 5, when he beat Toronto Blue Jays starter Roy Halladay) for the rest of '06 in order to save the prized freshman's arm.

Forecast: Apparently some haven't received the bulletin, because recently Sowers was the most added player in Yahoo! leagues and has been amongst the top adds since the news. Not all of you are in keeper leagues, where he makes an excellent prospect, so don't waste the roster space on this promising Cleveland southpaw.