Fantasy Baseball and MLB News, Rumors and Injury Updates

Who's Hot, Who's Not

June 20, 2006 @ 14:29:34

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by KFFL Staff

Welcome to this week's edition of Who's Hot, Who's Not. Now that June has rolled around, the list of players on the "hot" side is starting to look more and more familiar. Veteran performers that had gotten off to ice-cold starts have rebounded nicely, while one-week and one-month wonders have quickly fallen to the wayside. However, there is still an occasional lesser-known player that puts together a strong showing and creates plenty of buzz in fantasy circles. On the other hand, some players have seen their performances fade as the temperatures have risen.

It's a good idea to monitor the performances of the hottest and coldest players in your league, because you'll have the upper hand when looking to acquire or trade players. It may still be a little early to bail on a proven vet or add an undrafted middle infielder, but it's never too soon to gauge value. For which team in your league are these studs and duds making noise?

Note: We've updated the format of this column to help fantasy owners make more informed lineup or roster decisions. Yesterday's statistics can't help tomorrow, but it's important not to overlook current trends either. In the "Forecast" column, we'll describe a player's outlook for the coming two weeks as positive, neutral or negative. In the "Recommendation" column, we'll advise you whether to bench, start, cut, acquire or sign the player.

WHO'S HOT

Rank	Position/Name/Team	Forecast	Recommendation
1	SP Scott Olsen, Florida Marlins	Positive	Start/Add
2	1B Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins	Positive	Start/Add
3	SP Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins	Neutral	Start
4	3B Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals	Neutral	Start/Add
5	SP Kris Benson, Baltimore Orioles	Neutral	Start/Add
6	SP Jon Garland, Chicago White Sox	Positive	Start/Add
7	SS Jose Reyes, New York Mets	Negative	Start
8	SP Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals	Neutral	Start
9	1B Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies	Negative	Start
10	SS Julio Lugo, Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Positive	Start/Add

1) SP Scott Olsen, Florida Marlins - Olsen, 22, has been dominant in his last two outings, both victories, by holding the San Diego Padres to a run on two hits and a walk as well as the high-scoring Toronto Blue Jays to a run on six hits and two bases on balls. He fanned eight in each of those games, and he's won his last four times out for the suddenly streaking Marlins, who've won eight in a row.

Forecast: Since Olsen had a tense run-in with manager Joe Girardi in the dugout in late May (and pitching coach Rick Kranitz discovered a flaw in Olsen's delivery), the southpaw has been nearly unhittable. His probable upcoming opponents include the Baltimore Orioles (on the road) and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (at home), both winnable. He's been good enough on the road, including a victory at Coors Field June 4, but beware the Orioles, who have been better at Camden Yards than away from it. Olsen also will likely be opposing another gentleman who snuck on to this list. Still, it's too tempting to ride him.

2) 1B Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins - Morneau heads into the week of June 19 with a .333 average and six bombs for the month, along with a 10-game hitting streak. The streak included a string of five straight multi-hit affairs and five dingers. It's possible that the former third-round selection is finally busting out of his shell the way prognosticators had hoped, forcing fantasy owners to take notice.

Forecast: Next on the docket is a series at Minute Maid Park with the Houston Astros, where the free-swinging lefty will have to deal with a couple of aces (starters Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens); Morneau has hit just .230 on the road. But after that comes home dates with the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers, all of which are at the Metrodome, where he's hit at a .309 clip this season. Looks like a promising add, if he's still available.

3) SP Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins - Most figured it was only a matter of time before Liriano was a member of the Twins' starting five, and they were right. He hasn't disappointed, particularly recently. In his last two starts (14 innings), both wins, he's allowed two earned, six hits, three walks and struck out 17. In his last six appearances, the flame-throwing lefty has five wins. In three of those victories he hasn't allowed a run, and two of those outings were one-hitters. En fuego!

Forecast: Liriano has the dubious distinction of squaring off with the Astros' fresh-from-retirement hurler Roger Clemens at Minute Maid this week, followed by probable starts against the Dodgers and either the Brewers or Royals. No matter who it is, he's too good - send him out there.

4) 3B Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals - Last year's first-round pick for the Nationals has been on absolute tear as of late, with a current seven-game hitting streak, 11 hits in his last 22 at-bats and a .356 average with 10 doubles for the month of June. He has five multi-hit games in his last 10 and has been responsible for some late-inning heroics for Washington recently, including a walk-off two-run shot against the New York Yankees Sunday, June 18, that delivered a 3-2 come-from-behind victory for his club.

Forecast: Hitting in the fifth spot for a suddenly potent (OK, middle-of-the-pack) Nationals offense, Zimmerman is currently and quietly tied for fifth amongst all fantasy third basemen in RBI with 46 this year. He still sits on many free-agent lists, but he shouldn't much longer for those who need help at the hot corner. A word of caution: Zimmerman's average is .318 at home, and the Nationals just completed an 11-game homestand. The next two weeks they'll be on road, where he's hit a tamer .254, but on a high note, seven of his 10 jacks have come away from RFK Stadium.

5) SP Kris Benson, Baltimore Orioles - Benson's numbers, even recently, may not seem especially flashy at first glance, but take note of the comp. He beat Toronto at the Rogers Centre June 12 when he allowed three runs on six hits and two walks in six innings, and Anna's hubby followed that with the outing that earned him this nod: eight innings, six hits, one walk and one earned run against his former club, the toasty-hot New York Mets, at Shea Stadium. He's turned in quality starts against quality teams this month, and the two victories on the road show that he may be developing some cojones.

Forecast: Benson gets Florida, a Triple-A team that's been hot, and the Philadelphia Phillies, who've cooled off, in home starts coming up. Although you can't tell from his record (2-3), Benson has been much better at Camden Yards (3.35 ERA), and so have the Orioles. He has a history of disappointing people, but better run support and an effective Benson could equal a couple of wins in the coming weeks for the former No. 1 overall draft choice.

Others of Note...

6) SP Jon Garland, Chicago White Sox - Garland was bona fide scrapheap material not too long ago, but recently he's given fantasy players a glimpse of the pitcher that made him a hot add in 2005. This month he has a .223 BAA and a 1.04 WHIP, and in his last two outings (13.1 combined innings at the Texas Rangers and at the Cincinnati Reds - tough task, folks), he gave up nine hits, two walks and three runs and earned two wins. (Against the Reds he even homered, to boot.) Garland wins games because of the team he's on, but he deserved those wins this week.

Forecast:Garland gets to miss the St. Louis Cardinals at home this week, luckily, and he'll draw Houston at U.S. Cellular instead. He's in line to make a start at the Chicago Cubs after that, putting Garland in line for a couple more potential wins while he actually lowers his ratios. Last June and July were two of his best months in his breakout season. The right-hander may still be waiver wire fodder, but if you need help, you could certainly do worse.

7) SS Jose Reyes, New York Mets - Reyes was a big part of the club's recent eight-game winning streak and a large reason why the Mets scored in the first inning in all eight of them. Since June 5, he's collected 18 hits in 48 at-bats while swiping six bags and scoring 15 times. He also drew three walks in each of back-to-back contests during New York's run, and his 29 free passes show improved selection.

Forecast: He's always a must-start, but after a series with Cincinnati, we'll get to see if Reyes can get the job done against potential World Series opponents like the Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox and Yankees.

8) SP Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals - Carp owners were glad to have him back from the disabled list June 6, but his second outing, June 13, was vintage Carpenter: seven innings, three hits, no runs and 13 strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He followed that up with seven innings against the Colorado Rockies in which he allowed seven hits and a run and notching four strikeouts. Two wins have the righty back in top shape at the top of your rotation.

Forecast: Every fifth game means a somewhat enticing schedule that includes the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. With the Cardinals having a day off and moving starter Sidney Ponson to the bullpen, though, they may not need a fifth man. That could push Carpenter up a day, meaning he'd face the Cleveland Indians instead of Kansas City. Not that you'd sit him anyway.

9) 1B Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies- The power still isn't there, but Helton is riding a nine-game hitting streak and has four multi-hit performances in his last six games. After netting nine RBI in each of the first two months, he's already collected 12 in June to go with his .339 average this month. Most encouraging is that his recent binge has come on Colorado's latest seven-game road trip.

Forecast: The Rockies are at home all week, where Helton has hit .290 with three of his homers. They'll host the Oakland Athletics and Texas (some mixed company), but they hit the road again for series at the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Seattle Mariners. No reason to think that the sweet-swinging veteran won't keep it up, but owners may want to view this recent hot streak as a boon to Helton's value and look to peddle him; he just doesn't provide the sort of power you need from that position anymore.

10) SS Julio Lugo, Tampa Bay Devil Rays- Lugo had been a bit disappointing since returning from the DL at the beginning of May, but June has been kinder. He has 10 hits, with seven runs scored, in his last 30 at-bats, and he's stroked six homers this month - as many as he hit all of last year. Owners usually depend on him to steal bases, something he hasn't done yet this month, but if he can keep increasing that OBP, he'll have his chances.

Forecast: Upcoming series' with the struggling Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves, plus tangles with the Marlins and Nationals, mean that Lugo should have some opportunities to continue the hot hitting. June has typically been one of his better months, right behind July. A few were quick to jettison Lugo to the wire in the early goings, so if he's out there, grab him.

WHO'S NOT

Rank	Position/Name/Team	Forecast	Recommendation
1	SP Mike Mussina, New York Yankees	Neutral	Start
2	3B Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays	Neutral	Start/Bench
3	2B Jose Vidro, Washington Nationals	Positive	Start/Bench
4	SP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies	Negative	Bench/Drop
5	P Sidney Ponson, St. Louis Cardinals	Negative	Drop
6	OF Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants	Neutral	Bench/Drop
7	SP Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays	Negative	Bench/Drop
8	1B Sean Casey, Pittsburgh Pirates	Neutral	Bench/Drop
9	SP Ramon Ortiz, Washington Nationals	Negative	Drop
10	OF Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs	Negative	Drop

1) SP Mike Mussina, New York Yankees - This year Mussina has looked like the Moose of old - until his last three games (18 2/3 innings). In that time he's allowed 15 runs (14 earned) and 22 hits. The Yankees handed him a victory in the first of those three subpar outings thanks to a boatload of run support, but he's taken two in the loss column since. After not allowing more than three earned in any outing in April or May, he's done so twice in June.

Forecast: Mussina gets Philadelphia this week at Citizens Bank Park, so there it's a crap shoot depending on which Phillies team shows up; the right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and .200 BAA on the road. Moose owners get rewarded with a home date versus Florida, who can't possibly continue winning at their current rate - can they? Keep sending him out there, but you may want to find a trading partner while his numbers still look as good as they do.

2) 3B Troy Glaus, Toronto Blue Jays - Glaus is down to .222 this June, including a recent drought in which he has only three hits in 29 at-bats. One of those knocks was a home run, but he only has three this month, as well as eight RBI. His average has dipped to .251.

Forecast: This is typical Glaus, whose all-or-nothing style lends itself to some prolonged slumps. It could be high times again soon for Glaus, because coming up he'll see the staffs of the Braves, Nationals and Phillies (with a dose of reality from the Mets mixed in there). Three of those series are at home, where he's hitting a more robust .272 with 15 of his 20 homers. This is typically swoon time for Glaus, but the strong lineup around him should give him RBI opportunities.

3) 2B Jose Vidro, Washington Nationals - The good news is that Vidro is healthy, something he hasn't been fully for the last couple of years. The bad news is that, despite a torrid start to his 2006 campaign, his recent output belongs in the toilet. He's hitting .234 in June and has just seven hits (none for extra bases) in his last 46 at-bats. From the two-hole he has just five runs and two RBI during that stretch.

Forecast: In Vidro's defense, second baseman and leadoff hitter Alfonso Soriano has cooled a bit as well. Vidro is a career .302 hitter whose recent slump has dropped him to .298 for the year, so 31-year-old had to return to earth sooner or later. The switch-hitter typically hits well throughout the summer before fading down the stretch, and upcoming series' with Boston, Baltimore, Toronto and Tampa Bay should see him begin to right the ship. And remember that as July 31 approaches, the Nationals may move him to a (hopefully more offensive-minded) contender.

4) SP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia's top young hurler looks like a potential starting point for a club desperate for commodities in the arms race, but his last two starts (8 2/3 innings) wouldn't convince you. In that short stint he's allowed 10 runs (nine earned) and 13 hits (including two ding dongs) to the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He has struck out 11 in that time, but in the other categories he's killed owners who took a chance on him.

Forecast: Next up is an intimidating home date with the Yankees, and then comes a likely visit to Baltimore. Hamels is a kid with a lot of confidence, but considering his recent struggles, especially with locating his off-speed stuff, and how Philadelphia is playing right now, fantasy leaguers who own the southpaw are finding out why green pitchers are so risky; they would be wise to bench him or cut him to find more immediate help.

5) P Sidney Ponson, St. Louis Cardinals - Ponson had people wondering if St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan really was a miracle worker. The Aruban right-hander hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in any start through June 2. (He did spend a short stint on the disabled list in that time.) However, his WHIP and BAA now sit at 1.53 and .307, respectively, and it was only a matter of time before he suffered a meltdown like those of his last two starts (8 2/3 innings): 15 hits and 11 runs allowed (and five free passes issued in one of those outings.)

Forecast: He doesn't have much of a forecast, because the Cardinals listed Ponson as a reliever Sunday, June 18, when he was originally scheduled to start Tuesday, June 20. Duncan said that Ponson would pitch out of pen for at least the next three series, meaning Ponson has virtually no value for that time. If the club calls up rookie starter Anthony Reyes and the young righty pitches well, that time could be the rest of 2006.

Others of Note...

6) OF Randy Winn, San Francisco Giants - Some were high on Winn entering the season, and after last year's second half, who wouldn't be? After a slow May (.223), Winn has picked it up this month, but only a little (.262). His recent slide has seen him collect only two hits in his last 15 at-bats and four hits in his last 25. He's not a big-time thief, but he's swiped only three bags this year, as opposed to 19 last year.

Forecast: Last year Winn hit .359 with San Francisco and .354 with 10 steals after the All-Star break. That's typical Randy Winn, whose career post-break average is 21 points higher than his pre-break average. He's still scored a remarkable 44 runs for a Giants offense that sits in the middle of the pack. With three of the next four series at SBC Park, where Winn has hit .308 this year, he could pick it up. Upcoming opponents include some tough customers in the Angels, A's and Padres (with some Rangers mixed in). Don't look for a repeat of last year's scorching second half, but Winn could be a great add as midseason approaches, or a great buy-low candidate for someone to stash on their bench.

7) SP Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays - Before his last two starts, Janssen sported a 3.06 ERA and was grabbing some attention from fantasy pundits for his effectiveness since his call-up in late April. The wheels fell off in games against the Baltimore Orioles and Florida Marlins, when in 6 1/3 innings the former fourth-rounder gave up 12 runs, 19 hits and four walks while taking two losses.

Forecast: If you decide to hang on to him, you may think twice (and thrice) about sending him to the hill at home against the Mets. At this rate, even a date with the Nationals is a bit intimidating.

8) 1B Sean Casey, Pittsburgh Pirates - Casey has been both hot and cold since his return from the DL May 29. Most recently it's been cold, and his overall June numbers (.234 average, three RBI) reflect this. That includes o-fers in his last four contests (16 at-bats) and two hits in his last 24 at-bats.

Forecast: Just a couple of weeks ago, Casey strung together a couple of four-hit games in the midst of a 9-for-16 stretch, and the guy is a career .304 hitter. That said, he is on the Pirates, who, despite an overachieving supporting cast, are still in the bottom third of the league in runs scored. A series with the Royals looks promising, but after that comes tilts with the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine followed by home dates with the White Sox and Tigers. Casey doesn't provide the power numbers to be worth the roster spot right now.

9) SP Ramon Ortiz, Washington Nationals - Fantasy owners are always looking for a fringe pitcher who can fill in for stretches and give them solid innings, and Ortiz fit that bill from, oh, say, May 18 to June 7. In his five starts during that stretch (all wins), he never allowed more than eight hits or three earned runs while fanning 25 batters. In Ortiz's past two outings (11 innings), however, he's coughed up 18 hits and 10 earned runs.

Forecast: His next two appearances appear to fall during trips to Baltimore and Toronto. Some owners who thought he might be a good add for the short-term may want to take their chances at Camden Yards, but the wise move would be to smack themselves in the forehead and say, "Why the heck did I pick up Ramon Ortiz?"

10) OF Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs - Murton came in with some expectations after hitting .321 in 51 games for the Cubs last year, but since the end of May, when his average sat at .286 with four long balls, it's been all downhill. He has just eight hits in 48 June at-bats, good for a .167 average, and he hasn't jacked one since May 29. He's also hitless in his last 15 at-bats. Teams have caught on to his inability to hit right-handers (against whom he's batted just .224 in 147 at-bats).

Forecast: Like in some other situations, the Cubs gambled that Murton could be their everyday leftfielder. It worked in the early going, but lately the 24-year-old hasn't gotten the job done. Manager Dusty Baker said that he was considering platooning Murton with outfielder Freddie Bynum Jr., a guy with a left-handed bat and some speed on the basepaths. When first baseman Derrek Lee returns, the Cubs may move one or the other, which means Murton could find himself in the minors. Any owners continuing to hang on to this lost cause should cut bait and seek help elsewhere.