New England Patriots Passing Game

October 5, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

In recent seasons for the New England Patriots, anything short of a Super Bowl victory has been a disappointment; they were, after all, the National Football League champions in three of the past five seasons. A major key to their success has been exceptional cap management and the mining of talent through the NFL Draft and overlooked free-agent signings. While the team hasn't altered its core philosophy in that respect, its coaching staff has shown an ability to adapt to its personnel and come up with an approach that gives New England the greatest chance to win.

In 2003, a championship year, the club finished 17th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense. That year they were ninth in the league in passing (215 yards per game) and 27th in the league in rushing (100 yards per game) while averaging 3.4 yards per carry. The Patriots leaned on two running backs, the barely adequate Antowain Smith and mainstay Kevin Faulk, for most of the season. They were successful, but the club obviously felt the need to improve in that area to be victorious again. That offseason they traded for disgruntled back Corey Dillon, and in 2004 the team jumped to 358 total yards per game (seventh), including 224 yards per game passing (11th). They gained 133 yards per game on the ground (seventh) and 4.1 yards per carry. And of course, they repeated as Super Bowl champs. In 2005, though, ankle and calf injuries limited Dillon to 12 unspectacular games (10 starts). The team still finished seventh in total offense (352 yards per game), but they finished 24th in rushing offense (95 yards per game) and averaged 3.4 yards per carry. They did finish second in passing offense (258 yards per game). Such a combination, with a hobbled Dillon, ultimately proved ineffective in the playoffs; they were ousted in the Divisional Round.

During that 2003 season, the team could also depend on a defense that ranked seventh overall and was equally adept against the run (fourth) and pass (also fourth). In 2004, something changed; they were ninth overall and sixth against the run but just 17th against the pass. There were myriad reasons for such a decline, but the offense could counter. In 2005, though, it was obvious that an injury-ravaged secondary was solely to blame. New England was eighth against the run, but it finished 31st against the pass and 26th overall. A poor pass defense combined with a pass-heavy offense wasn't a recipe for success.

Personnel Dictates Philosophy

Why does this matter to fantasy owners? It's imperative to point out a noteworthy trend that's beginning to surface just a quarter of the way into the season. As this year's version of the Patriots takes shape, the team has leaned heavily on the run. Why?

Before the season began, the organization let leading receiver Deion Branch seek a trade (you may have heard) because it felt he wanted too much money. New England had drafted speedy wideout Chad Jackson, signed receiver Reche Caldwell and later traded for wideout Doug Gabriel. No one could be expected to replace Branch or build chemistry with quarterback Tom Brady right away. In April the team also drafted heralded tailback Laurence Maroney in Round 1 as insurance and an eventual replacement for Dillon; in September, partly due to necessity and partly due to Maroney's ability, he's proven to be Dillon's complement, if not more.

In addition, amongst teams that have played four games, New England is 11th in total defense, ninth against the run and 15th against the pass. The team has looked solid against the rush, but with multiple injuries, head coach Bill Belichick is aware that depth is again a major concern in the defensive backfield. He once again has resorted to using wide receiver Troy Brown on certain passing downs. It has also created the need for a more conservative offense. After finishing 18th in time of possession last season, they currently sit at 11th. They are fourth in total offense (368 yards per game) thanks to a third-ranked rushing attack (154 yards per game) and in spite of a 16th-ranked passing attack (214 yards per game).

Outlook

Brady's immediate value takes a hit. He hasn't had time to forge a rapport with these new receivers, and they aren't running routes well. Gabriel is slowly emerging as the team's best pass-catching receiver, but he's still far from Branch's equal. Jackson (hamstring) hasn't been on the field much. Caldwell is nothing special. And the team has high hopes for tight end Benjamin Watson, but defenses have clamped down on him. If these situations improve, Brady's value will slowly increase. But for now it must be too tempting to rely on the backfield duo the Patriots have at their disposal.

Look for Dillon and Maroney to continue their time-share, and expect similar production. Maroney has the slight edge in utilizations with 69 (24 percent) to Dillon's 60 (20 percent), including those in the red zone (15, or 33 percent, to Dillon's 10, or 22 percent). But Dillon had to leave Week 3's game early because of an arm injury. He should be fine, though, and still leads Maroney in utilizations inside the 5 (4-3). Expect Dillon to get the grinder's carries, with Maroney excelling against defenses susceptible to his slashing style and receiving skills.

Gabriel now leads in looks with 22 (7.5 percent), including four in the red zone (8.9 percent) and the only one to wideouts inside the 5. Most of that has come in the past two weeks, during which he has all of his 10 catches, 122 yards and two touchdowns. He's still learning the offense, but he makes the best fantasy option.

The Patriots have targeted Caldwell 20 times (6.8 percent), including once in the red zone (2.2 percent). He has nine receptions for 113 yards. He isn't shaping up as a fantasy play anytime soon, probably at all.

Brown has had 19 looks (6.5 percent), including two in the red zone (4.4 percent). He has 10 catches, 110 yards and a touchdown, but he didn't see a ball in Week 4. If the team continues to use him on defense, expect that to continue.

As a rookie, Jackson may not be able to grasp an NFL playbook right away. Besides, he can't stay on the field. He has four catches for 51 yards and a touchdown in two games. The team has targeted him six times (2.1 percent), including once in the red zone (2.2 percent). If his hamstring heals, look for him to be a factor down the road, but don't count on it.

Watson is a burgeoning talent, but he's become Brady's favorite target by default. He has 27 looks (9.2 percent), including one in the red zone (2.2 percent), and it came inside the 5. He has 12 receptions and 178 yards but no scores. When defenses begin to loosen up and the receivers open things up, he should benefit. In other words, don't expect it immediately. He's still a good play against soft defenses and stands the best chance to be the team's leading pass-catcher.

The team hasn't lost tight end Daniel Graham in the shuffle. Brady has targeted him 16 times (5.4 percent), including seven times in the red zone (16 percent) and once inside the 5. He has eight catches, 105 yards and a touchdown. Because Brady has looked for him as the team approaches the goal line, Graham still makes a respectable play against many opponents. Look for his value as a No. 2 tight end to remain steady.

Summary

Several factors have contributed as the Patriots have become a more run-oriented offense. Don't believe it? They have attempted 142 rushes this year, as opposed to 133 passes. A poor pass defense, subtractions from the wide receiver corps and new talent at running back have all led to this shift. For fantasy owners, it's time to face the reality that New England may not be a great source of fantasy points from quarterbacks and receivers, at least for now. And those running backs: cheers to you if you have one.

KFFLians are saying....

Comment

 

---

What do you think? We want to hear from you!

Name: E-mail: Please, enter the number that you see

Comment Guidelines

Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

Talk Sports 24/7!
KFFL Sports Forums: Over 24,000 strong and growing!

Impact Analysis: Dallas Cowboys' backfield (08/02)
Impact Analysis: Nate Burleson, WR, Detroit Lions (07/29)
Fantasy Football Impact Analysis: Cleveland Browns backfield (06/15)
Impact Analysis: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (11/13)
Impact Analysis: Pittsburgh Steelers RBs (10/17)
Impact Analysis: Steve Slaton, RB, Houston Texans (09/24)
Impact Analysis: New Orleans Saints RBs (09/23)
Impact Analysis: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks (08/28)
Impact Analysis: Ted Ginn Jr., Miami Dolphins (08/25)
Impact Analysis: Pittsburgh Steelers backfield (08/07)