Miami Dolphins Quarterbacks Analysis

October 12, 2006 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Ryan Dodson

On Sunday morning, Oct. 8, word leaked to fantasy owners that the Miami Dolphins were going with quarterback Joey Harrington against the New England Patriots. There was plenty of speculation about the reason that head coach Nick Saban decided to sit quarterback Daunte Culpepper in Week 5.

Culpepper (shoulder) missed a large portion of the team's practice time in the week leading up to the decision. Saban pointed to a banged-up shoulder Culpepper had sustained in Week 2 versus the Buffalo Bills. Saban insisted it was strictly a medical precaution and not based on Culpepper's play. The drama escalated with rumors that the two exchanged heated conversation at Friday's (Oct. 6) practice. Saban didn't deny it, but he classified it as "family business." Saban later wondered aloud if, because of the shoulder and Culpepper's struggles, the Pro Bowler wasn't actually regressing in his recovery.

Culpepper had struggled through four weeks, passing for 929 yards and just two touchdowns. He had thrown three picks and been sacked a league-high 21 times. He had also run 10 times for just 20 yards. This wasn't pre-injury Culpepper; coaches noticed that he was slow with both his mobility and decision making.

The Dolphins traded for both quarterbacks this past offseason with the idea that Culpepper would be the long-term answer while Harrington served as insurance. The team had even planned to go with Harrington entering the season because it didn't expect Culpepper to be recovered from knee surgery performed in November 2005. But Culpepper appeared to be close to 100 percent in training camp; he had exceeded the staff's expectations as far as his rehabilitation. The hope, however, was false, and the offense was going nowhere while the team struggled to a 1-3 start, with the lone victory come at the expense of the lowly Tennessee Titans.

Change Is Necessary

In Harrington's debut as a Dolphin, he completed 26 of 41 passes for 232 yards. He did throw two interceptions, but he was only sacked once. Saban noted after the game that the team played with more consistency on offense and at a faster pace. Although Harrington didn't generate a winning result, Saban was generally pleased with how the team played.

Culpepper's status and Sunday's positives seem to ensure that Harrington will remain the starter for the immediate future. Saban was happy with Harrington's ability to get rid of the ball quickly. He made some plays happen that the team had struggled at completing in the first four games. Harrington was able to attempt 41 passes, more than Culpepper had attempted in any game this season, because he could remain upright.

Outlook

Culpepper's value is cloudy. Saban said that he plans to evaluate Culpepper on a week-to-week basis, but it looks as if he's out indefinitely. In deeper leagues he's still worth stashing, but the upcoming Byes (six teams are off in both Weeks 6 and 7) make it difficult to hold a spot for him. Those in very shallow leagues could even drop him if a suitable replacement is available. But someone with roster space may be more than willing to wait out Culpepper's absence.

Harrington shouldn't become more than a low-level fantasy quarterback. He has the same targets Culpepper had – wide receivers Chris Chambers, Marty Booker and Wes Welker, tight end Randy McMichael and running back Ronnie Brown. After watching Sunday's performance, however, he should probably do slightly better than Culpepper has. With his quick release, he has the potential to spark the Dolphins' heretofore downfield passing game. With games against the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers ahead, he is certainly worthy of fantasy consideration.

Chambers owners have to be frustrated with his early season production (21 receptions, 210 yards and two touchdowns). However, he did catch five passes for 29 yards, and his value can't be much lower than it currently is. With said upcoming opponents, he remains a fantasy starter, at least as a No. 3.

Booker (shoulder) suffered a shoulder injury in Week 5, and Saban said that he's questionable at best entering the week. He hasn't produced much to this point (13 catches, 198 yards), anyway. His value is on the decline for now.

Welker led all wideouts in receiving Sunday with nine receptions for 77 yards. He leads the team in both categories (27 catches, 299 yards.) Although he has yet to catch a touchdown pass. Welker was targeted a team-high 12 times Sunday (19 percent), and he's second on the team in that category with 38 (13 percent.) Harrington may have an affinity for him throwing to him, and he has the most value in point-per-reception leagues.

Wide receiver Derek Hagan would likely replace Booker in the starting lineup if Booker is unable to play. He has been targeted just six times all season (2.0 percent), but Harrington looked for him thrice Sunday (4.7 percent). The rookie has two catches for 31 yards this year. It may be a while before he's ready to contribute, but the coaching staff likes his potential.

McMichael may see the most improvement in his numbers. In Week 5 he led the team in receiving (six catches, 84 yards), bringing his season totals to 16 receptions and 197 yards. After seeing just 17 looks in Weeks 1 through 4 (7.2 percent), McMichael saw nine Sunday (14 percent.) That's likely due to Harrington's ability to get rid of the ball. The team shouldn't need him to stay in to block as much, allowing him to release into the pattern more and become a bigger threat. Fantasy owners can remain hopeful.

Brown should enjoy some freedom that an improved passing game presents, but he may not see immediate results. With 273 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, he has been a bit disappointing. However, he does have 20 catches for 153 yards. His value remains solid in PPR leagues, and with the Jets and Packers ahead, he is a must-start.

Summary

The coach's goal is improve Culpepper's mobility, explosiveness and mental approach during the passer's time off. Culpepper will go through more rehab to strengthen his knee. Saban has mentioned on several occasions Culpepper's desire to play and frustration with not being on the field. He's happy with that fire, but he wants his big-time investment at 100 percent before he can return to the field.

According to Saban, Culpepper is his long-term solution at quarterback. But until he's fully functional, he has not the player that Miami envisioned leading it to the playoffs. Harrington is the top guy for now. That gives an immediate but minor upgrade to the offense's talent, especially with the upcoming schedule. Culpepper owners should be as patient as they can be, but look to Harrington as a suitable replacement until the team's Bye in Week 8.

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Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

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