Impact Analysis: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

May 20, 2008 @ 14:06:12

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Herija C. Green

It has not been a smooth offseason for the Chicago Bears, especially regarding the all-important running back position.

The offseason odyssey began with last year's primary starter - running back Cedric Benson (ankle). Benson failed a sobriety test while operating a boat Saturday, May 3, and was subsequently charged with boating while intoxicated and resisting arrest. He has been released from jail and plans to fight the charges, but it is not a great situation for a back that has totaled just 1,593 yards in three seasons. The team is expected to wait for any decision to come from authorities before they make a move regarding Benson.

Of course, Benson's hold on the job might have been tenuous at best, even without the misdemeanor charge. During the 2008 NFL Draft, the team burned a second-round draft pick on Tulane University running back Matt Forte. They also return two other halfbacks - Adrian N. Peterson and Garrett Wolfe - from their 2007 stable. The team is hoping one of these guys, or a combination of them, brings some stability to a running game still smarting from the trade of running back Thomas Jones to the New York Jets after the 2006 season.

Head coach Lovie Smith still stands by Benson as his starter, though he said each of the other running backs will get a shot with the first-team offense in training camp.

Who could get the ball

Benson remains the starter for now, pending any developments in his misdemeanor charge. He was a no-show for voluntary organized training activities (OTAs) May 19 - which he was expected to attend - and there is no word if he will show May 20. His size - 5-foot-11, 220 pounds - should work nicely in this offense, but he has yet to show enough consistency or heart to be a dependable No. 1 back.

Last year was Benson's first as a starter, though it ended prematurely. He sustained a broken ankle during the team's Week 12 game, which landed him on Injured Reserve. In the five-plus quarters prior to the injury, Benson appeared to finally turn the corner with 136 yards on 19 carries - good for an average of 7.2 yards per carry. However, in general, he has been a disappointment over his three-year career after being the fourth overall selection in 2004 draft.

Forte enters camp with a decent shot at the starting job. He has good size - 6-foot-2, 222 pounds - to go along with decent speed (4.44 in the 40-yard dash). He is a strong runner with solid lower body strength and good body control, making him a threat to break arm tackles. He is not explosive, but he picks his holes well and makes good cut backs. Forte finished his senior season with 2,127 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns.

When Benson went down with his ankle injury, Peterson stepped into the starting role. He responded with the best statistical stretch of his career, finishing the season with 510 yards and three touchdowns. With Benson skipping the OTAs May 19, Peterson was working with the first-team offense, though after six full seasons with the club it is obvious they don't view him as a frontline running back.

Wolfe received more carries towards the end of the 2007 season, but the then-rookie back still amassed just 202 totals yards. He is a small, shifty back that projects more as a receiving or third-down threat than an every down back. He is not considered a big threat for the starting job.

Whoever does win the job looks to have a tough task ahead of them. The team lost wide receiver Bernard Berrian - their best deep threat - to the Minnesota Vikings in the offseason, and they lack a stable signal caller behind center. This should allow teams to stack the box against whoever is carrying the ball and could make for a tough year. However, the team has ranked in the top 10 in carries two of the last three years, so there should be plenty of opportunities to rack up yards and more importantly, fantasy points.

Fantasy football outlook

Many chips still have to fall in place, but for now Forte is expected to win the starting job. Playing in a run-dependent offense, Forte should have value as a decent No. 3 back with huge upside. Benson could be considered a weak No. 4 back or solid No. 5 back, though he has just mild upside. Both those valuations are based on Forte winning the starting job and Benson remaining with the team. Were Benson to start he would be considered a weak No. 3 with Forte as a fourth or fifth option, though in such a scenario Forte would have a better shot of supplanting Benson during the season than if their roles were reversed. Forte has greater value in long-term keeper leagues.

Of course, even if Forte wins the starting job, Smith might opt for a committee approach. This could save both Forte and Benson some wear-and-tear, especially with Benson returning from an ankle injury. When Smith had Benson and Jones in his backfield during the 2006 season, he managed to find 157 carries for Benson and 296 for Jones. If a committee approach is adopted, consider Forte's value slightly lower than if he was the feature back.

As for Peterson, his only value would come in point-per-reception leagues, where his 51 receptions last year were a big boost. However, he, along with Wolfe, should go undrafted in any single-year leagues.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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