NFL Draft

Impact Analysis: Green Bay Packers defensive changes

February 24, 2009 @ 01:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Last year the changes came at quarterback. This time around it's the defense getting a makeover. The Green Bay Packers fired defensive coordinator Bob Sanders following the 2008 season and replaced him with long-time 3-4 specialist (as well as former Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers head coach) Dom Capers.

As expected, the Green Bay defense will be making the shift from a 4-3 base alignment to a 3-4 alignment - a surprising development given head coach Mike McCarthy's potentially tenuous hold on his job. This type of change can take as long as two to three years to implement. Easing matters, McCarthy has suggested the Packers will mix in a lot of their "sub" packages (nickel and dime).

Two of the coaches joining Capers in Green Bay are a pair of notable defensive names: former Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator Mike Trgovac and future Hall of Fame outside linebacker/defensive end Kevin Greene. The latter, especially, could be an intriguing hire given his considerable success as an outside rushing linebacker in this system in the mid-90s.

The front seven

It's still far too early for anything to be set in stone, but McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson both have a general idea of what to expect from Packers front seven. Defensive linemen Cullen Jenkins (pectoral), Ryan Pickett and Johnny Jolly are the three favorites along the line, with Pickett taking over the all-important nose tackle spot. Pickett has held up well as a defensive tackle in Green Bay's scheme, but there has to be a major concern with the lack of depth behind him. A healthy Justin Harrell (back) will go a long way to keeping Pickett fit. Jenkins should be healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle in Week 4. Jolly faces felony drug charges and has a Sept. 16, 2009 court date set.

Things are a bit fuzzier in the linebacker corps; three of the spots are expected to be filled by converted defensive end Aaron Kampman, along with linebackers A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett (knee). The latter two are expected to fill the middle spots with Hawk. Hawk regressed last year, though injuries likely played a part as he appeared tentative at times. He isn't as physical, either, relying more on his speed. For his part, Capers has said he'll tweak the fronts to help Hawk and Barnett shed blockers - they won't take the typical two-gap approach with their linemen.

Yet another question mark: Barnett tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in November and might not return by training camp. A severe knee injury, combined with a new system, doesn't leave one entirely confident.

The shift to right outside linebacker should hamper Kampman initially, but McCarthy says the veteran end will line up in a three-point stance for almost half of his plays. At the very least, this should keep him in a familiar position, though it does nothing to address the lack of rushing help Green Bay gave him last year.

In contention for the final outside spot are linebackers Desmond Bishop, Brandon Chillar and Brady Poppinga. Of the three, Poppinga is likely the main guy, though he could be pulled in passing situations; Chillar is a far better coverage linebacker.

The secondary

The secondary was, arguably, the best group for the Packers last year; they finished tied for third with 22 interceptions last year, though they were tied for fifth with 11 passing plays of 40-plus yards given up. Learning completely new terminology in Capers' defense might not help this early as the secondary generally makes the calls in this defense.

The corners are likely set with Al Harris and Charles Woodson at either spot. However, they will turn 35 and 33, respectively, this season, so a bit of youth is needed at this spot (possibly in the draft). A 2008 second-round draft pick, Patrick Lee showed very little last year, while Tramon Williams excelled at times when Harris was out with a spleen injury.

At safety, Nick Collins likely will line up as the free safety while Atari Bigby (hamstring, shoulder, ankle), if healthy and re-signed, will be the strong safety. Bigby regressed significantly last year, though a myriad of injuries likely contributed to that. In Capers' system, much like several others in the league, the strong safety plays up at the line of scrimmage quite often while the free safety covers deep.

Fantasy football outlook

It is still far too early to cement the Packers defense with a fantasy ranking, but given the multitude of questions, it doesn't look like it will be a promising year. They should have a few more additions, likely through the draft, but Thompson has generally shied from making any big free-agent splashes.

It should ease the burden on the players if they keep some of the old packages and Capers has largely been successful at implementing this system in the past, but to count on them for decent fantasy contributions in Year 1? That might be asking too much.

Green Bay's touchdowns gave a huge chunk of their value last year - these dried up in the second half. They were unable to generate much of a pass rush, and they weren't able to pick off as many passes later in the year. With all this uncertainty, looking to them as anything more than a backup defense is a risk. They are best suited as a defense left on the waiver wire for now.

Author Bio

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.