Impact Analysis: Assessing Baltimore's backfield

September 27, 2008 @ 09:06:03

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

As Week 1 of the NFL's 2008 season drew nigh, fantasy owners became warier and warier of Baltimore Ravens running back Willis McGahee's value. He underwent arthroscopic knee surgery around the middle of August, and his Week 1 status was in question. His average draft position steadily slipped, though only to a slight degree.

At the same time, rookie running back Ray Rice's fantasy stock seemed to be climbing thrice as quickly. He had an electric preseason, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and catching 10 passes for 44 yards. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh had to go so far as to clarify that McGahee remained his starter, as long as the veteran was healthy.

McGahee's availability for Week 1 was still in doubt; even though the back was listed as probable, it became clear that he wouldn't start. In fact, although he dressed, McGahee didn't even step foot on the field after kickoff. Rice started and had a respectable day. It was a big day from a third ball carrier - Le'Ron McClain - that caused fantasy owners, particularly those of McGahee, to scratch their heads, though.

Background

The Ravens had soured on running back Jamal Lewis, who coupled off-the-field issues with injury problems, so in February 2007, the organization released him. A couple of weeks later, Baltimore surrendered two third-round draft choices and a seventh-rounder to the Buffalo Bills for McGahee. The Ravens' new featured back promptly signed a lucrative, seven-year contract extension.

McGahee went on to have perhaps his best all-around season. He rushed for 1,207 yards, averaged 4.1 yards per carry - a career high - and caught a personal-best 43 passes for 231 yards. He scored eight total times.

Incidentally, McGahee's first season down by the Inner Harbor was also head coach Brian Billick's last. Billick, brought in for his supposed offensive ingenuity, instead fielded a team that finished in the bottom half of the league in total offense in six of his eight seasons. Enter head coach John Harbaugh, a man with a background rooted in special teams and defense. His new offensive coordinator: Cam Cameron.

Cameron is known primarily for his development of quarterbacks. However, his top-notch offenses of the San Diego Chargers, for whom he served as OC from 2002 to 2006, increasingly relied on running back LaDainian Tomlinson (5-foot-10, 221 pounds). When you have such a weapon, why not take advantage? Cameron's Bolts finished in the top 10 in rushing attempts in each of his five years during his stay in America's Finest City.

Cameron oversaw a disaster in his one season (2007) as head coach of the Miami Dolphins. In Baltimore, he's focused on an offense that was entering 2008 with a trio of less than desirable passers. What to do, then, but rely on the running game heavily?

The cast

Despite a solid 2007 campaign, there was plenty of reason to remain skeptical of McGahee. He has never since displayed the explosiveness that he demonstrated in his first season of action. He missed all of 2003 recovering from a shredded knee suffered in the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, his final game for the University of Miami (Fla.).

McGahee is no LT, and Cameron must have recognized that immediately. The organization's use of a second-round pick on Rice perhaps signified a desire to move in another direction. Sources have suggested that McGahee, with a questionable work ethic, hasn't endeared himself to the new regime, and management isn't opposed to eventually phasing him out of the game plan.

Rice (5-foot-8, 205 pounds) is a versatile, darting back, although he's more of a north-south runner. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry or more in each of his three years at Rutgers. In his final season (2007), he caught 25 passes for 239 yards in 12 contests. After his impressive showing during the exhibition season, in two games, Rice has rushed for 85 yards for 27 carries. He has also hauled in three passes for 19 yards. Most of that came in Week 1.

The wild card is McClain. The second-year man from the University of Alabama was slated to be the starting fullback (read: lead blocker in Cameron's offense). However, Baltimore made a seemingly overlooked signing when they brought in fullback Lorenzo Neal (Chargers) this offseason. Neal was a staple of Cameron's offense in San Diego, where he cleared paths with ferocity for Tomlinson and earned four trips to the Pro Bowl, including three under Cameron.

Although Neal joined the Ravens as the backup fullback, his experience allowed the Ravens to experiment. McClain was also listed as the third-string tailback. With McGahee's Week 1 status in doubt, McClain was, unbeknownst to the fantasy football community, was in position to make his mark.

McClain didn't (and still doesn't) display overly impressive speed. The 2007 fourth-rounder is remarkably and deceptively quick, with nimble feet, though. He's also a svelte 6-foot, 260 pounds, and nearly impossible to bring down without a swarm.

He. Is. A. Load.

Cameron reportedly likens him to a bigger Michael Turner (5-foot-10, 244 pounds), whom Cameron coached in San Diego and who is now the starter for the Atlanta Falcons. Turner won't win any track meets, but he doesn't waste movement.

Neither does McClain. In two games, he has rushed 36 times for 152 yards and two scores. He has also chipped in with three receptions for 28 yards.

"He's put in a lot of hard work, done everything we've asked him to do. In training camp he got some opportunities because of Willis' situation, and he made the most of them. He's just scratching the surface," Cameron says.

Who would have expected this from a fullback who attempted a mere eight rushes in 2007 and netted 170 rushing yards in his entire career with the Crimson Tide?

Analysis

The Ravens must know that the Super Bowl isn't in their future - not in this year or in the next. When creaky quarterback Steve McNair, now retired, wasn't able to lead them to the Promised Land, perhaps general manager Ozzie Newsome realized that it was time to start anew. Their once vaunted defense is built on an aging foundation. The Ravens want to build around rookie passer Joe Flacco, who is extremely raw. In a couple of years, McGahee will be 28, with the tread on his tires quite worn down. Where would that leave this team?

In San Diego, Cameron loved what Turner brought to the table. One might find little reason to use Turner much when one has a perennial MVP Award candidate, who does it all, touching the football 400 times per season. In Baltimore, Cameron may have visions of pairing the sleek Rice with the bruising McClain to form a dangerous thunder-and-lightning combo. Rice can be the L to McClain's T.

In the meantime (this year, perhaps next), though, Baltimore will likely lean on McGahee (eye) as long as he's healthy. While he's theirs, they might as well abuse him. Remember, though: NFL contracts are often frontloaded, with hefty signing bonuses (guaranteed money) and base salaries in the first three seasons. Perhaps, following the conclusion of 2009, if not sooner, the Ravens will begin the transition to a full-time reliance on someone other than McGahee.

In McGahee's first 2008 action, in Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns, he rushed 15 times for 64 yards and a touchdown; he tacked on one catch for 11 yards. He appears to have no lingering effects from the preseason knee procedure, but he sustained a semi-serious eye injury in that tilt. It forced him to sit for a good portion of the fourth quarter. He may be limited in Week 4.

It might be worth noting that McClain (back, ankle) received most of his work in the second half of that contest. However, the bruiser sustained a minor injury on his first carry - the team's first rushing attempt of the game. McClain was a part of the game plan all along. Had neither McClain nor McGahee been injured, it would have been interesting to see how the touches were distributed. Despite the fact that the Ravens' Irish duo was a little nicked up, Rice was utilized only five times.

Fantasy outlook

Ravens running backs have to be attractive simply because of the emphasis placed on the run. However, the presence of three legit options detracts from the value of each part. In addition, their running game will obviously be most effective in close games or when they're ahead.

Fantasy drafters were right to be skeptical of McGahee's plunging fantasy value. While he isn't yet washed up, he will likely be old news in a couple of years. In addition, the Ravens don't appear inclined to rely solely on his services in the backfield, despite the hefty chunk of change they're doling out to him. Nevertheless, he remains a potent runner, a slashing back at times.

McGahee is at best a high-end No. 3 fantasy back. Although he's in a committee situation, his offense's priority will be to run the football and protect its green passers, whether it's Flacco or second-year man Troy Smith (illness), when he's ready, which probably won't even happen this season. There's no ideal time to trade McGahee at this point, so it might behoove you to dangle him now. You may convince others that he's back to full strength, while McClain remains a relative unknown and Rice has an insignificant role, as long as McGahee is healthy. If you own any combination of the two, you're in relatively good shape.

McClain should be acquired in just about all fantasy formats. It's clear that Baltimore, particularly Cameron, has an affinity for what McClain brings to the table. The word is that McClain is expected to see roughly 15 touches per game. The hefty one may at times function as more of a closer, like Turner was for Cameron occasionally in San Diego, when the team had a comfortable lead.

However, early indications are that Cameron is inclined to split touches in his backfield a bit more than he did with the Chargers, so McClain remains worthy of consideration in many weeks. He also appears to be first in line for goal line touches. In two games, he has been utilized 10 times in the red zone and four times inside the 5. In one contest, the Ravens have utilized McGahee four times in the red zone and twice inside the 5. View McClain as a No. 3 fantasy back, with the upside to outproduce McGahee in some weeks because of the touchdown potential.

Rice appears to be the odd man out - for now. It may be hasty to draw such conclusions based on one contest, but the utilizations say a lot. Keeper leaguers, especially those in full-retention formats, should be excited if they own him. In a couple of years, he might be poised to take over as the lead in a split backfield.

Right now Rice is a No. 4 or No. 5 fantasy back. He's a more attractive option in point-per-reception and yardage-heavy formats, though. McClain's role may be reduced in the coming seasons - and even the coming weeks - but logic would dictate that he's the man at the stripe. Current McGahee owners, especially those in keeper leagues, would be wise to inquire about Rice.

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Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

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