Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Positional scarcity and depth in fantasy baseball

January 9, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Tim Heaney

Catcher

Depth: Shallow | Distribution: Balanced

Shallow as always.... Except in one-catcher mixed leagues. The bottom half of the top 12 provides upside (Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies) and proven value (Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants, or even Jorge Posada, New York Yankees).

In two-catcher leagues, your No. 2 will be a crapshoot. Upside (like with the boys from the Texas Rangers) abounds. It may not be terrible to settle for semi-stable (like Ramon Hernandez, Cincinnati Reds, or even Gerald Laird, Detroit Tigers), though.

First base

Depth: Deep | Distribution: Balanced

In fact, it might appear to be status quo. At a position relied upon for homers, established power begins to dissipate after roughly the top 10. Nevertheless, it's encouraging that you can wait longer than most everyone for your No. 1 and still land the Chicago Cubs' Derrek Lee.

Several sluggers still await you, from Chris Davis (Texas Rangers) to Jason Giambi (Oakland Athletics) to Mike Jacobs (Kansas City Royals). For a backup or corner man, you're really forced to decide between average (James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers), power or prayers for bounce-back campaigns.

Second base

Depth: Intermediate | Distribution: Balanced

Don't consider this spot shallow anymore. You'll find more than a handful of suitable No. 1s, like Brandon Phillips (Cincinnati Reds) and Brian Roberts (Baltimore Orioles). Several players at the position are capable of performing nearly as well as the top choices at prime positions.

Caution: steep hill after the top seven or eight, but plenty of potential. Here lies risk (Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) and uncertainty (Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners). After roughly the top 18, there are few suitable middle infielders because most have very limited upside. In that regard, second base is shallow.

Third base

Depth: Deep | Distribution: Top-heavy

The hot corner somewhat mirrors first base. However, as you'll see, the distribution is somewhat like that of shortstop. The consensus top four (ending with Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs) even hold uncertainty (Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays). After that, Chipper Jones (Atlanta Braves) and Garrett Atkins (Colorado Rockies) cause concerns.

Tons of burgeoning promise (Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals, through Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals), much of it unrealized, sits in the bottom half of the top 12. Rounding out a deep mixed league roster isn't too tough, with plenty of veterans. However, there are few players with real potential (Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies; Josh Fields, Chicago White Sox) beyond the top 20 or so. The issue is opportunity.

Shortstop

Depth: Shallow | Distribution: Top-heavy

Once you get past the top two or three options, like Hanley Ramirez (Florida Marlins), there's a chasm-sized drop-off. Second-tier options like Michael Young (Texas Rangers) and Miguel Tejada (Houston Astros) were once considered good enough; now, they're in decline.

High-upside options like Stephen Drew (Arizona Diamondbacks) add to the desire to wait if you miss out in the first two rounds. Midrange alternatives Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado Rockies) and Jhonny Peralta (Cleveland Indians) also have room for improvement or growth.

If you skip Young, Tejada, et al., you might earn somewhat similar returns on players like Yunel Escobar (Atlanta Braves) and Edgar Renteria (San Francisco Giants).

Outfield

Depth: Deep | Distribution: Top-heavy

Beyond the consensus No. 1s, there is plenty of talent. Talent alone - looking at you, Josh Hamilton (Texas Rangers) - isn't enough to guarantee first-round or high-dollar returns, either. Most of the No. 1s carry little if any risk.

In shallow mixed leagues, don't be terribly discouraged if you don't land one of these top players, although it helps. You can fill such an outfield with plenty of proven contributors (Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers), upside (Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds) or steadiness (Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies).

In deep mixed leagues (five starters), it's more harrowing. Love the upside of Justin Upton (Arizona Diamondbacks) and Adam Lind (Toronto Blue Jays); don't count on dependability.

Designated hitter

Depth: Shallow | Distribution: Top-heavy

The position has become a wasteland; AL teams don't take full advantage of the rule. The three pure designated hitters to make draft lists - David Ortiz (Boston Red Sox), Jim Thome (Chicago White Sox) and Travis Hafner (Cleveland Indians) - all have concerns. Big Papi is the riskiest, but the best; he's often drafted in the first six rounds.

Players who will most often man the DH spot usually have eligibility elsewhere. It's only a good idea to draft a true DH at value because he's limited to one spot in your lineup.

Starting pitcher

Depth: Deep | Distribution: Bottom-heavy

The crop of hurlers seems to grow each season. There are few constants among pitchers, but there are a ton of reasonable facsimiles. Plenty of arms drafted as No. 2s (John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners) are capable of performing like fantasy aces.

Heck, plenty of those drafted as No. 3s and No. 4s, like Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers) and to an extent Randy Johnson (San Francisco Giants), could perform like No. 1s. Sprinkled throughout this group are plenty of overvalued commodities (Joe Saunders, Angels, and Aaron L. Cook, Colorado Rockies). It's important to sift through the mess and know which you plan to avoid at that stage.

Loads of potential (though plenty more uncertainty), such as Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox) and Phil Hughes (New York Yankees), reside at the tail end. There are few vets like Oliver Perez (free agent) with limited upside but no questions. This is the most bottom-heavy position, but only relatively speaking; it's more bottom-heavy in shallow formats than deep ones. No doubt there will be several come-from-nowhere performers, though.

Relief pitcher

Depth: Intermediate | Distribution: Top-heavy

Extreme uncertainty has driven down the value of the fantasy baseball closer. You don't have to risk as high a draft pick anymore to get one of the few "dependable" choices, like Joe Nathan (Minnesota Twins). It's not a bad idea to be one of the first to select a closer, especially because you can wait longer.

Thorough evaluation of relievers has turned into one of the most essential fantasy baseball skills. Assessment of proficiency and injury risk will allow you to minimize blunders. There is some portion of the fantasy baseball community that's comfortable with Carlos Marmol (Chicago Cubs) or Jonathan Broxton (Los Angeles Dodgers) as its top stopper at the wrong price. Take advantage.

There are several potentially steady No. 2s, like Brian Fuentes (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim); however, questions abound for one reason or another. Seek value here. Then, take inventory of those with true upside, like Joey Devine (Oakland Athletics), and target a couple of them.