Impact Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals bullpen

February 25, 2009 @ 00:00:00

By Bryce McRae
Edited by Tim Heaney

From 2002 to 2007, St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa didn't have to think often when he needed to protect a late-inning lead. Closer Jason Isringhausen never dipped below 32 saves with the Cards in that time, save for an injury-shortened 2003 campaign. However, injuries caught up with Isringhausen, and the veteran stopper is now scouting out retirement homes with the Tampa Bay Rays.

His departure opens the door for several hurlers - Ryan Franklin, Chris Perez, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Josh Kinney and Kyle McClellan; even Chris Carpenter (shoulder) could step into a ninth-inning role. Of those pitchers, the first three are arguably the front-runners. If no one steps up, pitching coach Dave Duncan isn't opposed to playing the ninth inning based on the matchup.

For his part, La Russa hasn't been scared of using a youngster in the last inning in the past. He went with Perez in 11 save situations last year, and in 2006 he utilized now-starter Adam Wainwright as the closer. Wainwright was just 25 at the time and had thrown only two major league innings before that year.

Perez

Of the three front-runners, Perez appears to be leading the pack. A hard-throwing righty, Perez consistently reaches the mid-90s with his fastball, which in turn has helped keep his dominance rate above 9.00 at every stop in the minors and majors.

Although La Russa never officially named Perez the closer last season, the bulky righty garnered six saves in as many opportunities during August. His season didn't end on a high note, however, as he blew two of his final three opportunities and had a September ERA of 5.19. Still, he saved seven games last year after saving 58 in roughly two seasons in the minors, with 147 strikeouts in 109 1/3 innings.

One of Perez's problems has been inconsistency with his slider. He uses a different arm slot for his slider, which allows hitters to pick up on the incoming pitch. Duncan has been working with Perez on improving this during spring, stopping him in the middle of his motion to point out flaws in his arm path. He'll need to develop a more consistent approach on this pitch; if he does that, his fastball should be that much more potent.

Two other worries with Perez: a bone spur and command problems. The former isn't expected to hamper him as he worked to improve his fitness and drop some weight this offseason, but it is something that did bother him last year. Perez has struggled with his control at certain stops en route to the majors. Even last year, he gave up a dangerous 4.75 walks per nine innings, and 41.4 percent of his hits were flyballs last year, another scary statistic that contributed to his 1.08 rate of home runs allowed per nine innings.

Motte

Another young closing option for La Russa, Motte has thrown just 11 innings in the majors. He was a September call-up last year, compiling a 0.82 ERA and 16 strikeouts in that time. He also managed his first save.

So what is it that Motte brings to the table? He has a ridiculous dominance rate since jumping to Double-A Springfield, never dipping below 11.57. Last year he struck out an astounding 126 batters in just 77 2/3 innings (14.60 K/9) between Triple-A Memphis and the bigs. His fastball has more late "zip" on it, according to former Cardinals reliever Russ Springer, and Motte does a good job hiding his delivery, so hitters can't pick up on it. Thus, he doesn't need to rely on his breaking pitches as much as his developing competition, Perez.

Motte isn't without his cons, however. His lack of experience is a worry, especially given that he has dealt with control problems in the past. He walked 3.51 batters per nine innings at Triple-A last year and 4.04 batters per nine at Double-A the year before. However, his downward trend in this respect bucks the expected pattern one might look for with a jump in levels.

Both of his secondary pitches are far from being finished products, too. According to Duncan, Motte still needs to develop a changeup and keep working on his slider. Given that he threw his fastball almost 90 percent of the time in the majors last year, he'll need to develop these other pitches to keep hitters off balance.

Franklin

And finally we hit the veteran of the three front-runners - Franklin. If Motte and Perez are both the hares, then Franklin (not to be confused with the children's book star) is the tortoise in this race.

Franklin, 36 in March, led the Cards in saves last year with 17. He stranded over four-fifths of the batters that reached base on him while posting a dominance rate (5.83) not seen since 2001. He will also have his experience in his corner - La Russa might want to bring along the young guys slowly, gradually transitioning one of them to the role.

Of the three, however, there is the least to be excited about with Franklin. His groundball rate regressed, his command was shaky (3.43 BB/9), and he doesn't have the electric stuff of the other two. His strand rate was also abnormally high; you can't expect him to leave that many batters on base again. Despite being a career high, his dominance was still mediocre for a closer. In short, he has the least to be excited about in this competition.

Other options

Those three aren't the only ones who could be in the mix: Miller, Carpenter, Kinney and possibly McClellan have all been mentioned.

• Miller, 36 in May, returns to the NL Central after one season in Tampa Bay. His dominance rate has been impressive the last three years, staying above 8.94 in each of those years. However, he has just 10 career saves and the look of a lefty specialist.
• For Carpenter, a lot will depend, first, on if he can stay healthy, and second, how he pitches. He has already faced live hitting, but given the immense injury risk, he likely is a long shot at this point. The Cardinals will first see if he can last in the rotation, too.
• Kinney missed all of 2007 and most of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He returned for the tail end of 2008 and exhibited stellar command in his seven innings pitched. He doesn't have the sizzling stuff of Perez or Motte and appears behind them in the race for the job.
• Yet another youngster, McClellan showed solid command in 75 2/3 innings last year, his first in the majors. He keeps the ball on the ground well and has decent speed on his fastball. However, again, he doesn't have the electric stuff of Perez and Motte or the experience of Franklin, pushing him further down the expected pecking order for saves.

Fantasy baseball outlook

Of the three front-runners, Perez has the most promise. He has the best combination of stuff and experience, and La Russa trusted him in the role for part of last year. However, don't view him as anything more than a No. 3 fantasy closer, and you could be heading to the waiver wire given the uncertainty in this situation.

Next up, Motte. He'll need to pitch well and stay up after camp, but if he does, he could be worth a late-round flier in mixed leagues. If he is sent down, add him to your watch list in all formats. He is riskier but may have more upside given his slight evidence of development.

Franklin could be nabbed in NL-only setups or late in mixed leagues, depending on how this all shakes out in Spring Training. However, unless he is in the mix for saves, he likely won't help much given his poor ratios.

Miller, Carpenter, Kinney and McClellan have about as much chance of being the next Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young as they do making an impact on your fantasy roster in mixed leagues.

Carpenter is intriguing if he can stay healthy, but it might be better to think of him as a starter rather than a reliever when mulling the late-round flier. There isn't enough to recommend the other three outside the deepest of deep NL-only formats. Even then, they are only filler for the odd ratio boost.

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Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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