Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

How to Play in Auction Leagues

November 27, 2007 @ 16:33:43

The popularity of fantasy baseball auctions increases every season. That means more people are enjoying the challenges of such leagues, but it also means even more people experiencing the agony of defeat. Negative results can happen for any number of reasons - a lack of knowledge, poor strategy or just plain old bad luck. Whatever it is, nothing eliminates risk and uncertainty like a good plan. Nowhere is a plan more necessary than at your auction draft.

Auction drafts using clean slates for rosters can easily last two or three times as long as straight drafts, so it's important to be prepared, focused and have a free schedule. These leagues aren't for the faint of heart. Just like in serpentine drafts, you'll need to take into account all of the factors that affect player value. The difference is that you'll actually need to attach a monetary figure to that value. It's not just the players themselves that determine their worth; your league type, league rules and other outside influences play a large part as well.

Once you know how much to expect these players to go for in your auction, you also need a strategy. Auction strategies have been around since roughly the birth of auction drafts, so there's no shortage of influence. No plan is foolproof, but if you do your research and analysis up front, you'll have a better chance than most at producing a satisfying season.

THE RULES OF THUMB

To begin developing a draft strategy, first you need to understand the elements that affect player value. With a typical $260 salary cap, it might seem like you have plenty of room for error, but remember that value is relative. If your cap were $1,260, the value of the players wouldn't change much, relatively speaking.

The common rules of fantasy baseball draft value apply to auctions too. It's commonly accepted that hitters - particularly those that contribute in all five categories or are above-average power hitters - are worth more than pitchers. In a 5x5 league, hitters contribute in more cumulative categories (runs, home runs, RBI and stolen bases) than pitchers (wins, saves and strikeouts). On top of that, it's riskier to depend on pitchers because they tend to be a little more injury-prone and inconsistent. Wins and saves are statistics that can be affected by the hurler's team much more so than the hitting categories. Many a fantasy owner has agonized over a blown save with two outs left in the game that deprives the starter - and fantasy owner - of a win, not to mention the save itself! Multiple-position eligibility could also make a player worth an extra buck or two.

Just as it does in straight drafts, positional scarcity also drives up the value of the top performers at shallow positions. Elite performers at second base or catcher go for a much higher dollar amount than the rest of the players at their position, for instance. It's easier to find value in a cheap outfielder or first baseman than it is in a cheap second baseman. The theory is, then, that when you spend less on a deeper position like first base, you'll still receive adequate production from that position to contend, while having more auction dollars available to target an elite performer at a scarce position. Remember, though, that these elite hitters at talent-scarce positions don't necessarily go for more than the top fantasy names overall. For example, Cleveland Indians catcher Victor Martinez may warrant a few extra bucks because the majority of the pool at the position doesn't inspire hope. He should not, however, approach the dollar amount of a player like New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, as that would amount to excessive spending. Martinez is not as proven a fantasy commodity as Rodriguez, and Rodriguez paired with a much less expensive option like Seattle Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima could very easily provide you with the same amount of production at the end of the season, if not more.

THE RULES OF THE LEAGUE

Become as familiar as possible with your league's structure. If it's a standard 5x5 league, you may already have a feel for how much players are worth. If it's a 4x4 league, you must be aware that players that derive a lot of their value from runs scored lose a lot of value. Strikeout pitchers do the same. If you play in a head-to-head league, you should know that power hitters are more dependable (beware if your league penalizes for strikeouts) than base-stealers.

Keeper leagues, known as dynasty formats when they include auctions, value players in their prime, or even with a touch of youth, more so than in single-year leagues. It's probably not wise to spend extra dollars on Colorado Rockies first baseman Todd Helton, at age 34, because his keeper value is diminishing. Instead it might make more sense to throw a couple of extra dollars at San Diego Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who had similar numbers but at 25 years old could be approaching his prime.

Deeper leagues also magnify factors such as positional scarcity. The top performer at a shallow position becomes a little more valuable at a scarce position. The inclusion of a starting middle infielder in addition to a starting second baseman and shortstop, for example, makes Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley a slightly greater commodity. At the same time, your auction dollars are spread a little thinner. Utley's value relative to the other second basemen goes up a bit, but his overall dollar value will go down a smidge because there are fewer dollars to go around. Therefore, if you want to add Utley, you may be forced to overpay for him. Many will end up doing just that this year.

THE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT

Once you have a grasp of player worth, you have to develop and implement a strategy. You need to construct a cheat sheet, much like you do for a straight draft, with auction values for each player. You can assign each player a dollar value, based on your research, and then you may also annotate a cap figure - a dollar amount you're willing to reach but not exceed for a particular player. Establishing this will give you a range for the amount you're willing to pay for each player. Players in which you are not all that interested can have the reverse system; you may only list them by the price at which you could justify having them on your team. Those players can have a low range. The factors like those above will determine these amounts. As mentioned, a commonly accepted idea is that hitters are more valuable than pitchers. As a result, most draft strategies revolve around spending more money (about two-thirds, give or take) on hitters than pitchers. As with serpentine drafts, there is, for example, a sharp drop-off in reliability among relief pitchers beyond the top names.

LIMA

Some commonly proposed draft strategies have been developed by experienced fantasy baseball minds. One is LIMA, which stands for Low Investment Mound Aces. This strategy proposes that you spend no more than $60 or $70 on pitching, using the large bulk of your cash on proven hitters. You can devote most of your pitching budget to two or three dependable starters and perhaps a stud closer. After that, you would only draft inexpensive pitching options that possess certain statistical characteristics. These statistics are generally regarded as indicators of future success. Using this strategy requires you to target pitchers that have at least a 2.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio, at least a 6.0 strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio and no greater than a 1.0 home runs-allowed-per-nine-innings ratio. This plan has merit, but there are also potential problems. If you assess hitters poorly and devote a large chunk of money to them, your team will likely have few reliable players. Also, if your inexpensive pitchers don't pan out, you'll likely be trolling the waiver wire for the bulk of the season looking for a quality performer or two. In a league with limited funds to spend on free agents, you may not be able to afford that sort of risk.

RIMA

Another draft strategy with its own acronym is RIMA, which stands for RIsk MAnagement. Like LIMA, RIMA suggests that you spend much more of your budget on hitters than pitchers. The difference is that RIMA involves applying a reliability measurement to players as well and advocates overspending on these players because they help to, naturally, avert risk. This strategy also has some good points, but it potentially leaves you with a very difficult-to-manage pitching budget. In addition, like LIMA, a poor evaluation of hitters can set your team back. Finally, an injury to one of your overpaid "dependable" stars can be even more devastating.

Other strategies originate from their straight-draft counterparts. You can, for instance, elect to "punt" a category or two. If you punt stolen bases, you would elect to not spend much money on players that mostly get stolen bases. This strategy means that you essentially need to be dominant in all other categories to be competitive, however, and leaves very little margin for error in the other categories on Draft Day.

It's important to recognize that while these strategies have flaws, they also raise a lot of valuable points that you can incorporate into your draft strategy, even if you do not wholly subscribe to them. In the end, though, the soundest strategy is to put together a well-balanced team. You can enter your draft with a strategy in mind, but you have to be ready to adjust to situations as they occur.

Avoid Bidding Wars

Like you would avoid position runs in a serpentine draft, you shouldn't get caught up in a bidding war on a particular player. The excitement of a heated exchange of dollar figures, especially on a very valuable player (see Utley), can cause the fantasy owners involved to lose sight of the goal, which is to manage the budget.

Be Aware of Inflation

Heading into the draft, there are several factors that can cause players to spike in perceived value. One is hometown bias - be prepared for a homer to bid up a player more than he's worth. Your fellow owners are almost certain to view certain players or positions at prices different from those than you expect. If you encounter bidders that seem to be infatuated with pitching or home run hitters and spend large sums of money on them, you have to adjust accordingly. Look to spend less money on second-tier performers in those categories while getting deals in the others because those owners will no longer have the resources to compete for them. In dynasty leagues, inflation is likely because owners often carry players from the previous season on their rosters that are below market value. They can thus overspend for other players. In an auction you must be prepared for the fact that you may not come away with the player you targeted because his bid became too ridiculous to afford.

Spend Your Money

Many of the points made urge you to exercise caution when bidding on players. That is wise advice, but you have to be willing to pull the trigger when the time comes. It does you no good to have cap space remaining at the conclusion of your draft. If you spend $13 more than your projected value on Rodriguez, you probably didn't manage that bid very well. On the other hand, if you exceed your projected value for Rodriguez by a couple of dollars, you can come away feeling certain that you wisely invested your money. You're likely to land a player or three that you expected to go for more than your winning bid, so you can afford to be elastic in that sense.

Peruse the Bargain Bin

Almost everyone spends money on the big-name players, but it's the fantasy owners that find the $1 gems that often set themselves apart. It's a good idea to take a chance on one or two potential diamonds in the rough, especially in a dynasty league. If you come up with cheap gold in a dynasty league, that sort of player gives you a foundation for your team in future years. Thus, you could be the one setting the inflationary market at future drafts. In addition, if you have your eye on a $5 player, throw the other owners off by bringing that player up early in the draft. Many owners prepare to spend the bulk of their cap early and aren't prepared to make bids on such small fare. You may land that player you covet for $2 or $3, and that difference could give you the edge when bidding on a player like Rodriguez. If these players you acquire on the cheap don't pan out, you've lost very little and can attempt to replace these players with something from the free-agent pool.

THE RULES OF THE SEASON

Once the season begins, your work is far from over. Managing your auction team doesn't require as much effort as preparing for the draft, but it does require attention to detail.

Many auction leagues have simple free-agent systems, such as first-come-first-serve or league waivers. In these cases, free agents usually have a default free-agent salary. If you claim a player that another team has waived, you likely do so at the player's salary with his previous team. Managing your roster in these leagues is often much like doing so in a serpentine league with the same system. The difference is that you must weigh the merits of releasing a cheap player that may still have potential for what is likely the more expensive player that you're acquiring. In dynasty leagues, if you have a potential keeper at a cheap salary, it might not be worth dumping him to add a free agent that wouldn't see much time on your fantasy team. If, on the other hand, the free agent could prove to be a keeper at the free-agent salary, you probably shouldn't waste any time in acquiring him. If you have to dump a potential cheap keeper to grab a player that will help you now and put you over the hump, it's probably worth going for broke to win your league.

In other auction leagues, teams have a FAAB, which stands for (depending upon where you find your definition) Free Agent Acquisition Budget or Free Agent Allocation Budget. Once the season begins, each team has a fictitious budget (say $100) to bid on free agents. Keep in mind that it's a long season, and your FAAB can diminish quickly if you don't manage your funds. When new players enter your league, they come up for bid. For instance, in mixed leagues, when a major league organization calls up a player from the minors, that player would then qualify for FAAB bidding. Fantasy owners would submit blind bids for the player, with the highest bidder awarded the player. Most minor league call-ups aren't worth more than the minimum bid ($0 in leagues that allow them). Be prepared to up the ante for prospects with a lot of buzz, especially in keeper leagues. Last year, if you played in a dynasty league, the winning bid for Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Ryan Braun, after his promotion, most likely rivaled that of many starting outfielders in your league. If you play in an AL-only or NL-only league and a player switches leagues midseason, you would have the chance to bid on those players as well. For bids like these involving proven players, especially superstars, expect to overpay if you want to acquire them. The impact that players like these have on the standings can be immense, so your fellow owners will not hesitate to blow a large chunk of their budget on them. When the Atlanta Braves acquired first baseman Mark Teixeira in a trade from the Texas Rangers last year, it's safe to say that many NL-only managers squandered a large portion of their FAAB on him.

SUMMARY

If you haven't gathered by now, auction drafts require much more preparation than serpentine drafts. You must be ready to devote a lot of time to developing your auction cheat sheet. The fundamental rules of fantasy baseball value apply to a degree, and that's where you begin to assess player value. Your league rules will dictate player worth as well. You must devote much more time to assessing this value, because you're not just investing one simple pick but rather a potentially large portion of your budget. One dollar in one direction or another can make all of the difference. Once you determine player value, devise a strategy. Be prepared to adjust your strategy during the draft, too, because unexpected circumstances are almost a given, and situations can change after each player is bid upon. Finally, remember that while the draft encompasses most of the hard work, you can win or lose your league with your in-season management. In the end, you'll likely find that fantasy baseball auctions are more than worth the trouble because of the enjoyment you'll derive from them. Make sure you put in the work, because they're even more fun if you win.