Hot Corner a Hot Topic for Marlins, Cantu

April 2, 2008 @ 03:53:56

By Michael Egnak and Bryce McRae
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

After trading away third baseman Miguel Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers, the Florida Marlins were left with a hole to fill at the hot corner. The battle to replace Miggy came down to the final week of spring training, as Jorge Cantu, Jose Castillo and Dallas McPherson battled it out for the starting job. In the end it was Cantu prevailing, and he will begin the year as the team's starter at third base.

However, Cantu has not played third base since 2005 and may not be a lock to remain the starter if he can't recapture some of his 2005 form. McPherson remains an option, as do infielders Jason Wood and Alfredo Amezaga. Castillo was released and then claimed off waivers by the San Francisco Giants at the end of spring training. What is each player's potential in this situation?

Cantu

After being promised a shot at the job when he signed in January, Cantu made the most of it by winning out over McPherson. He has not played consistently at third base since 2005, with most of his experience coming at second base. However, he does bring with him some major league success, albeit brief. Cantu broke out in 2005 with 28 home runs and 117 RBIs while batting .286 in 598 at-bats. He struggled the following year, hitting just .249 with 14 homers in 413 at-bats. Rock bottom came last year when he was sent to Triple-A to start the year and earned very little time in the majors. He was then traded to the Cincinnati Reds midseason, where he hit better (.298 with one home run in 27 games), but it was still not enough to get regular playing time until the last week or two of the season.

As mentioned, Cantu hasn't played much third base in his career. He played 62 games at the position in 2005, but he has a total of just two appearances there since then, and that includes his time in Triple-A. His defense is still not the best, but they have been pleasantly surprised with it through spring training. What else he has going for him is age - he turned 26 last month - and past success in the majors.

However his hold on the job could be considered tenuous. He hit .366 with three home runs and 16 RBIs during spring training, but the job was pretty much handed to him with McPherson missing a good chunk of spring games due to injuries. His mixed success in the majors makes it hard to believe Cantu is really a player that Florida can rely on. He is more likely closer to the 2006 version than anything else. The offense, or lack thereof, surrounding him does not add anything to his value.

Even with a starting job, Cantu only should be considered a watch-list candidate in deep mixed leagues; in NL-only formats, he's a must-add. He could be a cheap source of RBIs and possibly home runs, although he could hurt you in average. He's still young enough that he may have not peaked. If McPherson finally lives up to his potential, it is possible the team will bring him up. That could move Cantu into a utility role because of his experience at almost every infield position. For now, though, Cantu's job appears safe.

McPherson

McPherson was the last of the three major candidates to sign. A second-round pick out of college, it took McPherson just three years to progress through the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim organization and get his first major league action. Unfortunately, injuries have hindered him throughout his career (including this spring), and even when he has been healthy, he struggled in both the majors and at Triple-A.

McPherson holds a career .247 batting average in three major league seasons, slugging 18 home runs and bringing in 45 RBIs in 360 career at-bats. His problems aren't limited to the big leagues though. Since 2005, the 27-year-old is batting just .256 with 23 home runs in 262 at-bats in two seasons at Triple-A. Even more alarming are his on-base percentages, which haven't topped .300 yet in any season in the majors.

However, some might have considered him the favorite for the job entering spring training. Why? Of the candidates, McPherson may have the most talent when he is healthy. Early in his career, McPherson was a fearsome hitter. As a 23-year-old with the Angels organization, he hit a combined 43 home runs and had a .310 average between Double-A, Triple-A and the bigs.

What caused him to lose the job? McPherson was limited to just seven spring games due to an oblique injury and a sore left groin. The team felt he needed more time to get back in the swing of things. In those spring games, McPherson hit just .095 and had only two RBIs. It was not the start McPherson needed to show he was over a herniated disc in his back that knocked him out for the whole 2007 season. He will begin the year with Triple-A Albuquerque.

The question becomes: How should fantasy owners treat McPherson? The best way would be very pessimistically, as he has struggled too much throughout his career to be considered as a breakout candidate. With a start at Triple-A, McPherson may be able to force the team's hand if he returns to his prospect form. For now, however, consider him as only a watch-list candidate in NL-only leagues.

Amezaga

Known more for his defense, Amezaga is not be in the mix at third base to begin the year. Instead he will work as part of a platoon in center field with outfielder Cody Ross (knee). Ross has been dogged by a left knee hyperextension suffered near the end of March. Once he is fully healthy, it is possible he will be given the bulk of playing time.

That likely would move Amezaga back into a super-sub role as a backup in both the infield and outfield. Even if given some spot starts at third base, his fantasy value is next to nothing in mixed leagues; in deep NL-only formats, he could be a solid short-term addition.

Wood

Wood, 38, is a career .246 hitter who has seen sporadic playing time in his three-year stint with the Marlins. Last year was the most productive of his career, as he made appearances in 98 games, hitting .239 with three home runs in 117 at-bats; he was used mainly as a defensive replacement. He has covered every position on the field in his major league career (including pitcher last year); he is considered the team's backup at first and a possibility at third. It should be noted he likely would not have made the team if Castillo and McPherson were still around. Ignore him for fantasy purposes.

Summary

Cantu obviously has the most fantasy value of any of these players, although he will have to rebound from a couple of down years. However, the reality is that if he bounces back to any degree, he very well could become a solid free-agent addition. McPherson would be a weak handcuff to Cantu in the event Cantu struggles, but McPherson has very minimal value due to his injury struggles and poor major league numbers. Keep in mind the third base position for the Marlins likely will not produce the kind of fantasy impact it has with Cabrera in recent years because of the team's weakened lineup.

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Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.

Bryce McRae
Bryce McRae is a Managing Editor with KFFL and has been involved in fantasy sports since 1999. He joined KFFL as a volunteer writer in March 2005 before becoming a Hot off the Wire Analyst in March 2006. He began working in his current capacity in September 2008. His work has appeared on fantasy sports sites such as Yahoo! and CBS Sportsline as well as in print. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 2008 with a B.A. in History and U.S. Studies.

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