Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove: Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Utley

November 3, 2011 @ 10:54:45

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Keith Hernandez

Your fantasy baseball draft isn't far off. KFFL.com's Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove surveys free agency, trades, salary arbitration and injuries that will affect your rotisserie or head-to-head baseball league. You're cleared for your MLB offseason program: The Arizona Fall League, Baseball Winter Meetings, Rule 5 draft and more will shape your fantasy baseball rankings.

Boston Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury named AL Comeback POY

Uh oh for Utley?

Ellsbury, who also received his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, was rotisserie's top commodity, next to Matt Kemp, in 2011. Of course, after a baseball player has had an extraordinary season, fantasy managers are already finished with him. What's he going to do next year? That's what they want to know.

Boston's center fielder is in much better position to deliver 2011 value again in 2012 than Kemp is. Ellsbury will again toil in a Grade A lineup. Despite the small sacrifice he made in contact rate, he still easily outpaces Kemp in that category and in general has a sounder BA profile.

The BoSox always felt that Ellsbury's swing generated plenty of lift and would eventually produce more power numbers, and they were correct. He may not hit 32 bombs again next season, but he has at least 20-homer power. And, if he hits fewer bombs, he'll have more opportunities for stolen bases, of which he accrued only 39 (in 54 attempts) in 2011.

There's justification to take Ellsbury in the first round in a mixed league next year. Injuries that were mostly the result of fluke mishaps are responsible for concerns about his health. He's not the safest pick, considering how relatively short his resume is, however.

Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr.: 2B Chase Utley may never be same player

"I don't know if it's behind him," acknowledged Amaro, regarding Utley's right-knee patellar tendonitis, to the Philadelphia Inquirer. "Is he going to be a 30-home run, 110-RBI guy and hit .300? I don't know that. I hope he is."

Was a distrustful knee at fault for the second sacker's abysmal September (.205/.295/.337) and atypically poor performance against southpaws (.187/.298/.308)? By the second half, it was painfully clear that lefties could easily get the better of him.

Many rotisserie owners drafted Utley prior to the point in spring training at which the forecast for his 2011 season became quite gloomy. They might be thankful for the .259 batting average, 11 home runs, 44 RBIs and 14 stolen bases in 454 plate appearances. But what will they expect in the future?

Health issues (primarily related to his hip) have taken their toll on Utley's performance in past seasons and have tended to linger. This knee condition sounds like a long-term concern. Optimistic folks may be willing to pay for nearly pre-injury Utley now that he's made it through this past campaign. That's a hefty risk for a player who goes all out, will be 33 and plays a position that has become fairly deep.

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Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

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