Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove: CC Sabathia, James Shields, Brandon Phillips, more

November 1, 2011 @ 14:24:03

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Tim Heaney

Your fantasy baseball draft isn't far off. KFFL.com's Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove surveys free agency, trades, salary arbitration and injuries that will affect your rotisserie or head-to-head baseball league. You're cleared for your MLB offseason program: The Arizona Fall League, Baseball Winter Meetings, Rule 5 draft and more will shape your fantasy baseball rankings.

SP CC Sabathia nets extension from New York Yankees

The Bronx Bombers tacked on one more guaranteed year, with an option for 2017, to prevent Sabathia, 31, from tempting fate in free agency. The clauses in it reflect the Yanks' consciousness of the toll that the hefty lefty's running streak of five straight seasons with 230-plus frames may take on him. The 2011 19-game winner has the body type that would seemingly lend itself to the kind of uncommon durability he's displayed, but, as Fangraphs' Mike Axisa notes, these are uncharted waters.

Sabathia's swinging-strike percentage bounced back gloriously, perhaps thanks to a somewhat sharper fastball and a bit more breaking stuff, perhaps not. The 8.72 K/9 was his best in Pinstripes, though, as was his 2.31 BB/9. Blame some of that still rising WHIP - 1.23 in 2011 - on an elevated BABIP against, then. A correction here and there ... whatever. Who knows when - if - the workload will affect his outlook, but fantasy baseball players shouldn't bid as if they expect it to be in 2012.

Cincinnati Reds pick up 2012 option on 2B Brandon Phillips

CC sees more C-notes

Walt Jocketty will also discuss a long-term deal with Phillips; whether they reach an agreement depends on how similar each side's definition of "market value" is.

Little explains Phillips' career-high .322 average on balls in play, which helped him post a personal-best .300 BA, except for another modest gain in contact rate. The 30-year-old's 18 round-trippers and 14 stolen bases were both five-year lows. Considering that he also posted a lifetime-high .353 OBP, it appears that fewer stolen base attempts are becoming the norm.

Phillips' stellar defense adds to his real-life value. For roto purposes, he's reliable, but future forecasts for cume cats may have him teetering between high-end investment and second-tier choice. Perhaps promising: The Reds moved Phillips from cleanup to leadoff for roughly the final quarter of the season; in 38 straight starts from the top spot, he hit .350, reached base at a .417 clip and stole seven bases in eight chances.

Tampa Bay Rays exercise SP James Shields' 2012 option

Astute rotisserie owners expected Shields to rebound in 2011, but it's doubtful that any imagined the kind of campaign - 16 wins, a 2.82 ERA and 225 strikeouts - he actually put together. It's as if a few years of saber-optimism resulted in grand payoff.

The right-hander, who'll be 30 next season, almost certainly won't replicate his near 80 percent left-on-base rate, and perhaps not that .258 BABIP against, either. Despite minor losses in his BB/9, however, Shields remains capable of producing another high-quality fantasy baseball line. Mike Podhorzer, of Fangraphs fame, elaborates on the K/9 benefits of the right-hander's altered selection.

Shields is often around the plate, although that's slowly changing, which in terms of his hittability is probably a positive in his case. Some corrections are due, but he should be a solid investment. The Rays are likely to dangle him this offseason because they wouldn't mind capitalizing on his perceived value and could stand to create an opening for Matt Moore. Shields' potential new locale could have an impact on his 2012 outlook.

Kansas City Royals kick in RP Joakim Soria's 2012 option

Fantasy managers who paid dearly for Soria's services in 2011 feared that they'd pay dearly for the decision. He rectified matters a bit in the second half and posted 28 saves, but the 4.03 ERA was tough to swallow. Still, the right-hander, who was more than dependable for three seasons prior to 2011, looks like a quality buy-low target in what will be his age-28 season.

As Tim Heaney shared from his findings a few months ago, then-pitching coach Bob McClure pondered stretching out Soria in ST in order to build the righty's arm strength and help him gain a better feel for his stuff. The Royals didn't retain McClure, but it'll be interesting to see if they still consider that plan. It could prove to be beneficial, since fatigue shouldn't be a factor, but its necessity may be in question.

RP Kyle Farnsworth's 2012 option exercised by Tampa Bay Rays

How could the Rays buy out the second year of Farnsie's deal when he delivered a season - five wins, 25 saves, a 2.18 ERA, a 7.96 K/9 and a 1.87 BB/9, in the AL East - far beyond what anyone imagined he was capable of? The pickup doesn't eliminate the possibility that Tampa won't shop the righty this offseason, however. It'd be smart move for a franchise known for maximizing the value of its players. Will he end up elsewhere?

Unquestionably, Farnsworth, 36 next year, with his hard fastball and, more recently, a diversified repertoire, has been capable of this kind of season for a long time. Undoubtedly, he'll see at least some minor rectifications in his peripheral marks and, thus, surface numbers. That expectation will make his value difficult to gauge on draft day, however: At what point is it time to leverage the doubt of your league mates?

Toronto Blue Jays pick up 1B/3B Edwin Encarnacion's 2012 option

E5 found 530 plate appearances in Toronto despite his rep for terrible glove work. He batted .272 but with a surprisingly low 17 home runs and 55 RBIs; he posted a fantastic post-break slash line of .291/.382/.504 in 272 plate appearances.

Encarnacion, 28 next season, has the bat to become a lineup fixture. The dip in his rate of homers per fly ball is likelier a fluke than anything else, especially with the Rogers Centre as a backdrop for half of his contests.

Toronto is exploring ways to increase his flexibility by having him play left in winter ball, too. Considering the club's depth in the outfield, however, that move is unlikely to result in more PT. The Blue Jays may also add to their payroll this offseason. Depending on their acquisitions, Encarnacion may once again find himself in a battle for ABs. Several things are TBD north of the border, but for now, roto players would be wise to avoid paying full price for his 2011 numbers, particularly that second half, although it's a promising situation.