Fantasy Baseball Offseason Guide

Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove: Alex Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Aaron Hill, Mark Ellis

November 15, 2011 @ 12:11:14

By Nicholas Minnix
Edited by Tim Heaney

Your fantasy baseball draft isn't far off. KFFL.com's Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove surveys free agency, trades, salary arbitration and injuries that will affect your rotisserie or head-to-head baseball league. You're cleared for your MLB offseason program: The Arizona Fall League, Baseball Winter Meetings, Rule 5 draft and more will shape your fantasy baseball rankings.

AL Cy Young Award goes to Detroit Tigers SP Justin Verlander

Unanimous decision. In 2011, the right-hander was exceptional: He posted a 24-5 record, a 2.40 ERA, an 8.96 K/9 and a 2.04 BB/9 in 251 frames. Verlander notched more strikeouts in a season once before, but he's never walked so few, more remarkable because he set a career high for innings pitched.

Where does he go from here?

What's next? In 2012, his age-29 campaign, the pitcher will be one of the first off draft boards or one of the highest priced, naturally. Roto managers derived a portion of the 2011 profit on him from his practically absurd win total. It's almost certain that he'll slide, if just a little.

Verlander is undoubtedly capable of more fantasy baseball seasons like this past one, but his numbers in this past one were extraordinary. He's reliable, the kind of investment you can bank on, but at the price tag Tim Heaney expects him to carry, there's no room for profit. There's nothing wrong with a buy like that; it just depends upon your strategy.

New York Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez begins workout routine 3 weeks early

Initially, the 37-year-old will focus on strengthening the area around his right knee, on which he had surgery to repair a torn meniscus four months ago. Rodriguez hit .276 with 16 dingers, 62 RBIs and four stolen bases in 99 games, the first time in a full season in which he failed to reach 100 games. In his three previous seasons, he didn't make it to 140.

In The New York Post, A-Rod called 2011 "close to embarrassing" and "the worst year of my career." Surprise: Most well-paid athletes take some sort of pride in their level of performance, the motivation for it notwithstanding.

Buy it? Sell it? As March approaches, we'll find out, but all things considered, a mild discount on a third baseman with Rodriguez's potential is going to be tempting.

2B Aaron Hill agrees to two-year contract with Arizona Diamondbacks

Although the Diamondbacks had no interest in exercising Hill's $8 million option for 2012, they were open to bringing him back at a reduced cost. For just a couple of mil more, the Snakes tacked on a second year.

That's a reasonable gamble on a player who two years ago had just concluded a 36-homer, 108-RBI campaign and this past season posted a .315/.386/.492 slash line in 142 plate appearances after he joined Arizona. Hill will be only 30 years old next season.

The mystery resides in the disappearance of Hill's ability to hit for average in his past year-and-a-half with the Toronto Blue Jays, as well as his sudden desire to run and loss of power in 2011. He wasn't extremely efficient on the base paths, but he'll have some freedom with Arizona, and unless there's something wrong physically, Hill should still have some bop.

The change of scenery and positive environment might affect Hill the way it affected the man he replaced, Kelly Johnson, at least in his first season with the D-backs. But to make the case, there's only a small sample, plus one outlandish campaign. The plain plus: He'll come cheaply, just as he did to the Diamondbacks. Which makes a shot on him worth taking.

Los Angeles Dodgers sign 2B Mark Ellis to two-year contract

On a 35-year-old with a reliable glove but no bat, the Blue spent only a bit less than Arizona did on Hill. Ellis' past two seasons - .291/.358/.381, with seven thefts, in 2010, .248/.288/.346, with 14 steals, in 2011 - make up the long and short of the upside here.

Rotisserie managers in NL leagues have a new, less dependable Jamey Carroll on which to spend minimal dollars. And this one isn't even eligible at short.